Saturday, January 20, 2007

Captain Tew Attacks the Queen's East Indiaman

Insight. Making money in investing is to exploit market inefficency, and the are inversely related to liquidity and number of active participants. I mean, in a market like stock exchange trading of say, TEVA, which is registered in many markets, it is difficult to be more clever than others. So I should avoid the stock market in its usual form. I need more risky and difficult markets. Which are those? One is the direct involvement in business, buying failed businesses+repackaging+selling them. I am almost a year in the market and looking around but seen no opportunities. The water factory of Kfar Edumim industrial area looked interesting, but the entrepreneur did not need me. I have not seen other opportunities, I shall be searching more actively.

The second is the illiquid real estate market. I am aware of the Israeli apartments for living business, but have not found investment opportunities. The interest rate is terribly high, for example. The best I found is the small cap shares in TASE and of course he option market, which is very small and has much volatility. That Trader person on the Globes forum has learned how to work this resource and made 240% last year on this illiquid market. I, like an idiot, played the world's most liquid market, that of oil options. I bet that it will go down, under 50, and there it was going when Arctic masses of air started moving towards Europe and the USA. Now it is 52. I found a wonderful illustrated book of pirates, 180 years old, I like it. It is a cold Shabbat outside, I am taking a rest day, yom menucha.

We are not really aware of it but the world is changing more now than ever before. Enormous areas are being depopulated, like Ukraina and Moldova and Hungary. The quantity and quality of people working is changing very fast and also what they are doing. The whole postwar economy has been wrecked. Travelling in Bulgaria one only sees rusted ruined factories and abandoned villages. Turkey and Russia is importing workers from Central Asia.

I imagine myself to be Captain Tew, aboard my sail ship on the open, free, lawless ocean. I have no control over winds and currents and I barely know where I am in the vast, signpostless ocean. The drawing is interesting, as Tew's ship has a afifon like sail 40 - 50 meter high drawing the ship madly toward its prey, almost in the air, like a bird. It must have been a superhuman sensation of driving a small wooden ship that is being rised by wild, uncontrollable, furious, frantic winds into the air and toward the loaded, slow, East Indiaman with its torrid treasures and perfumed white girls. Investing should be like that, setting the sails to catch the wind and use their fury to fly and fall on the seachest full of yellow gold coins.

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