Prof. Hamilton directed me to a 2005 post on his Econbrowser blog, where he wonders the disconnection between Saudi declarations and promises and actual production figures.
In view of the new (for me) information, I officially give Marcha Atras (reverse course) on the subject. OPEC probably is just a facade, faking market control where there is none. It has the power of the theatre, of the drama, which in our mass media word is power, effective bluffing power. The pic show Lebanese actor Kazak playing Shakespeare in Arabic.
My immediate problem is that I base my investment strategy on things like el-Hamri's declarations. Knowing he is bluffing, that OPEC has been doing it for years or for ever, I have to rethink my strategy.