The intelligence analysts should be studying the old Lenin vs Kropotkin debate on the subject of individual revolutionary action. Lenin thought individual terror was worse than useless, he conceived (and carried out) a small group of professional revolutionaries performing state terror. This certainly resonates given recent history. The probability of success in recent European terrorist acts corresponds with the degree of association the agents had with the leadership. Bin Laden's time spent organising resistance in Afghanistan led directly to the creation of the networks associated with Al-Qaeda. Motivation isn't enough; it takes the organisational knowledge present in institutions to facilitate a successful attack. I dont think the Arabs have the knowhow to establish and operate underground institutions. They have even great difficulty to establish aboveground frameworks.
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