The economic blogosphere, such as Prof. Thoma's Economic View, is judging that America lost the Iraq war and they base their opinion in the prescience of bond markets, which apparently has devalued Iraqi bonds 40% after the "Surge".
I say it is nonsense. Iraqi bonds are a great speculative opportunity. Great fortunes are made of wars. I quote an anonymous commenter called The Oilman. He writes:
My timeframe is 3-5 years. I trade oil. There are so many factors in someones prognosis that I would be speculating if I gave you a timeframe. I will say this, The basket of currencies that they will peg the Dinar to will vary. At the point in time Iraq has grown their oil output to handle all outstanding debt and expenses will be the time when you will be doing the happy dance. If the big boys ie. Goldman Sachs continue the manipulation and speculation in the oil and UL future markets who knows?Lets pray.
The currency will continue to slowly climb and then take a small spike and then continue to slowly climb again. The outlook for oil is promising. Countries around the world are in trouble come 2010 as we in the oil world know. One of the five countries left as an EXPORTING nations will be IRAQ. He who controls the oil rules. So at the latest 2010. I hope for alls sake it is sooner. Lets pray. Until then be encouraged by the slow climb and do not be discouraged by any setbacks.