Sunday, January 06, 2008

Recession Fear on the Street


Will Rahal's blog called the attention to the upcoming Unemployment Report two weeks ago and when it was published, confirmed that
it has taken about 3 months into a typical recession to find this kind of increase in the Unemployment rate! So, If history is any guide, we could very well be in the second or third month of a recession already!
INTEL fell 8% on last trading day and NASDAQ 4%. VIX the volatility index (also called the fear index) is high again. To my mind, this is a tremendous overreaction, because here in Israel we live with 7 - 10% unemployment during the last twenty or thirty years. We had never the luxury of ONLY 5% unemployment. What should I do? Everybody had been expecting a crash during 2007 and Jim Rogers even fled to Dubai... (a good move, tax-wise). Say that they are all nervous wrecks? I would say that in a scale of worry, anxiety, fear, panic, where-is-the-fire-exit we are now in the "fear" level.

“We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.” Warren Buffet

In my portfolio, I have almost no "highly speculative" stocks, and I am looking for a good one. Hallal Tikshoret? Outcome: I bought KOOR. Koor is a holding company and is selling lower than the stocks it holds. Should holding companies be worth more or less than the value of their holdings? Apparently, less, because they eat some of the cake while administering the business.

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