Sunday, June 29, 2008
Barrenness Epidemy Firing History
History will not stay quiet nor it is ending. Fukuyama was wrong. Native cultures continue to be affected by epidemies of barrennes and a strange lack of interest in the future. They will not be part of the future. Some parts of Europe are reporting that people is not reproducing, they are refusing to have children. Overrall fertility rate in Italy is about 1.3, and for some towns it is less than 1. The NYT has a long article on this. But barrennes is not an European racial feature, the same process is hitting Eastern Asia and even Southern Asia (Thailand).
The combination of what I call the barrenness epidemy and possibly some other factors is rapidly destabilizing nations and communities across the Middle East as well as everywhere. Lebanon was one of the first signs of the incoming storm when its Christian community was swept away by the demographic explosion that consumed the world of Islam a few decades ago. Lebanon had been carefully engineered to have an Europeanized Christian majority and a passive, rural Muslim minority. The structure worked for one hundred years, till the demographic balance shifted and the country collapsed. Yugoslavia was destroyed by differential fertility between the South Slav majority and Muslim minority in Bosnia Herczegovina. In Israel we have four different ethnic groups competing, although the balance is maintained thanks to the demographic transition of Israeli Arabs and the strenghtening of the ultra-religious Jews.
What about Italy? It will be taken over once again by the Barbarians? So it seems to me. Old people needs help, and help is cheaply available in Third World countries. They cannot renounce to foreign caregivers and street sweepers. Israel wanted to avoid the foreign temporary worker phenomenon, and it largely succeeded except in one sector: the Phillippine caregivers. Consequence: we have a fast growing Phillippine community in Israel, girls who give birth, girls and boys who marry locals, illegal children protected by humanitarian volunteer organizations, etc.
There are two alternatives: (1) general miscegenation, like in Brazil, (2) settling into castes, like India. All over the world I am seeing increasingly mixed societies, not societies structured in castes. But the tide may reverse itself. This struggle will go on till genetic engineering makes irrelevant the whole ethnic thingie. Then we will have some other thingie.