Last year about this time I made a bet that the price of oil will fall around autumn, after the driving season. I studied all about the world oil market, and read hundreds of opinions, and of course, I lost all my money. I found that in this field of oil and macroeconomics, Econobrowser is the most serious site, and although I am an old man, am not ashamed of calling Prof. James Hamilton my personal teacher. If the kind reader has followed my tortured nights trying to understand the workings of oil, knows that I always found arguments and reasons for higher and lower prices, and could never reach a firm conclusion. On anything. So when Prof. Hamilton writes
Is the price of oil today too high given the fundamentals? Could be. Is it too low? Could be. But one thing I'm sure that's too high is the confidence on the part of those who insist they know the answer.a warm feeling of vindication works its way up along my old bones and fat tissues, and am happy to have found a twin spirit in the universe. I would not be surprised if Prof. James Hamilton is revealed as a fellow Hungarian Jew (I am joking, of course).