Dienekes Pontikos has a note argueing that the human race is accummulating mutations at the maximum possible rate and consequently it is changing at backbreaking velocity. Very well written and clear.
...in population studies, scientists are likely observe (in the finite samples they collect) multiple descendants only of the most prolific of the Patriarchs. Thus, for the vast majority of the Patriarchs with few descendants, we are likely to sample no, or few of their descendants.
This means that there is an inherent observation selection effect in the types of Patriarchs we are likely to study: they are much more likely to be among the prolific ones. Coupling this observation with the knowledge that STR variance in the descendants of prolific Patriarchs accumulates near the germline mutation rate (0.69ยต for the 100 most prolific ones in my experiment), we, once again, conclude that the STR variance in haplogroups likely to be made the object of scientific study accumulates near the germline mutation rate, and at the very least, faster than the evolutionary rate of Z.U.F.
Closing Remarks
Z.U.F. have also proposed two additional demographic scenaria under which a higher effective mutation rate would be observed:
A sudden jump in the size of the haplogroup after it appears
An expanding population (m>1)
Both factors seem reasonable for post-Holocene human populations. It is well known that -whatever temporary setbacks there were- mankind has overall experienced a substantial population growth in recent millennia. Thus, an expanding population seems like a fair assumption.
Moreover, it is reasonable to assume that in stratified human societies, a few males, (leaders, or conquerors), or groups of closely related males may have generated a disproportionate number of descendants in the short-term.
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As an example of this phenomenon, see this chart:
http://www.simpletoremember.com/vitals/will-your-grandchild-be-jewish-chart-graph.htm
If matter in the US proceed at the current rate, virtually all of the remaining Jews will be descendants of a small number of Hasidic founders.
The obvious corollary is that America´s future Jews will be very different from the average American Jew of 2008. Also in the genetic sense.
Yes, absolutely different - the secular/Reform Jews will disappear as Jews (dissolve into the great melting pot). I know many American Christians who have a Jewish grandparent or great grandparent - it is mentioned as an interesting bit of family history but they think of themselves as goyim like their mothers. Madeleine Albright, who completely denied her Yiddishkeit until she was publicly confronted with it, was typical of the old fashioned European approach where you hide the Jewish ancestor under the carpet (like the Neo-Nazi who "doesn't know" his mother's family history). Americans will be more comfortable with their Jewish ancestors (just as many Americans proudly claim to have American Indian ancestors) but it won't affect their self-identification as goyim who celebrate Christmas, etc. The ultra-Orthodox will represent the vast majority of remaining Jews.
While the Orthodox have a smaller number of Patriarchs, AFAIK, there was no genetic selection between those Jews who stayed Orthodox and those who became more secular (although because of the selective nature of the Holocaust, perhaps more Romanian/Hungarian haredi survived than Polish/Lithuanian). So while they will be a different group, I'm not sure what this difference will mean in terms of "Jewish" characteristics such as intelligence. The greatest creative/business energy of American Jews tends to be concentrated in the first generation to break away from Orthodoxy - they bring the discipline and modest habits of the Yeshiva and apply them to the modern world. After that, their children fall into the decadence/diffidence that afflicts most "modern" Westerners (reflected in the fact that they can't even be bothered to reproduce).
I dont know if Hungarian - Transylvanian (I refuse to write Romanian by a feeling of solidarity with Hungarian irredentist anti-Trianon non-neo-nazis) Jews did survive in larger numbers than Polish - Lithuanian Jews. After all, most of the Hungarian Jews that survived lived in Budapest, and had been formally converted in its large majority. And even 10% of the 3 - 4 million Polish yishuv is more than 20% of the Karpat Alja (Munkacs, Sziget) yishuv. I think that Hungarian Jewry was able to save its leaders (partly thanks to Kastner) who rebuilt their communities. Polish rabbanim, in their blind fanaticism, forbid and fought emigration and did not participate in any salvage operation, not with the Bund, not with the Communists, not with the Zionists, and were all killed with their communities. I presume this fatal failure of the Polish Orthodox leadership may have caused the turning away of the survivors from religion. Only one a small Litvische yeshive escaped through Japan.
Jews being a very homogeneous group, I think there are little genetic differences. It is too early to tell what will emerge, but probably will eat nyokedli filled with over-sweet szilva lekvar.
As I have mentioned before, Hungarian is probably the least comprehensible language to a non-speaker - it is so non-Latin, non-Germanic, non-Slavic that you have very little clue.
However, I wonder if the Italian word gnocchi is related to nyokedli and if so in which direction the causation runs.
I have heard stories that some of the Hasidic rebbes had given up the rebbe business shortly after the war and were running around Budapest hatless and beardless, but then they realized that there was in fact a demand for dynastic rebbe services so they dug out their old kapotes and shtramls and went back into service.
...and they did a great job and service to the Jewish people.
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