Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Georgia's Doom is Secured


Randall Parker, a Toronto demographer, writes about the future of Georgia and he is not optimistic:
Georgia will most likely fit into the typical Mediterranean (and Black Sea?) framework of sustained below-replacement fertility. Without immigration, it's bound to suffer rapid aging. With emigration--if not to Russia then to Turkey, another neighbouring regional superpower with a large and dynamic economy and historical connections to the country--and Georgia's rapid marginalization is secured.
Randall seems to forget that Georgia sits on one of the largest oil basins of the world, so it may re-industrialize rapidly. But just now it seems sloping toward depopulation. So this historic little Christian kingdom in the mountains will disappear together with the other Christian enclaves in the Middle East. Armenia may be the next.

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