Thursday, January 31, 2008

The Reconquest of Harlem








The beautiful Vornado building pictured here will be structured as an interlocking complex of luminous sqares and sited in the heart of Harlem, on the famous 125th Street. Rents will be half those of similar buildings in Midtown. Tenants could also get tax breaks. The main occupier will be the Major League Baseball communication company. However, New York City is set to rezone 125th Street and restrict building heights in such a way that the tower would be about 40 feet too tall. The company is hoping for an exemption. Local officials are also very concerned that the current wave of gentrification is displacing not only longtime residents, specifically the vibrant multi-ethnic African and Hispanic populations, but also small retail drug dealing and pimping businesses on the 125th Street that had stuck it out through the bad times in Harlem.

Kenyan Civil War: The British Did It










Kikuyu and Luo are separating in Kenya. But American and British intellectuals are blaming their governments. How could Britain be the author of what is happening in Kibali slums of Nairobi? The joournalist Caroline Elkins explains:
As tens of thousands of Kenyans flee their homes and hundreds lie dead, part of the blame rests with Britain and its imperial legacy. If you're looking for the origins of Kenya's ethnic tensions, look to its colonial past. Far from leaving behind democratic institutions and cultures, Britain bequeathed to its former colonies corrupted and corruptible governments. Colonial officials hand-picked political successors as they left in the wake of World War II, lavishing political and economic favours on their proteges. This process created elites whose power extended into the post-colonial era.

Added to this was a distinctly colonial view of the rule of law, which saw the British leave behind legal systems that facilitated tyranny, oppression and poverty rather than open, accountable government. And compounding these legacies was Britain's famous imperial policy of "divide and rule," playing one side off another, which often turned fluid groups of individuals into immutable ethnic units.

In many former colonies, the British picked favourites from among these newly solidified ethnic groups and left others out in the cold. We are often told that age-old tribal hatreds drive today's conflicts in Africa. In fact, both ethnic conflict and its attendant grievances are colonial phenomena.
According to the article, ethnic conflict is a colonial phenomenon. Decolonization, I presume, must be the solution. But it cannot be done in any significant way, since the British left Kenya 60 years ago for good and are not interested in coming back. The most incredible accusation is that the British left a corrupt government. If anything stands for the British colonialists, it is the legacy of a honest administration. My interpretation of the article is that it attacks current British government, associating it with Kenya's tragedy. The article's objective goal is to undermine the legitimacy of current British government and to seize its power. Within this context the article starts to make some sense.

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Ethnic Cleansing in Kenya






An excellent pic from the New York Times. Paramilitary dispersing a spontaneously formed sqadron for ethnic cleansing in the Kibera slum of Nairobi. They are armed with sticks and machetes. The boy in the center is running very gracefully with plastic slippers. It looks like the opening scene of "2001" only that we are in 2008.

TASE Performance








Not bad.

I hit the jackpot with Orckit

Tonight (here) the stock went 25% up on Nasdaq. It is rumored that Itzik Tamir the CEO closed the contract with Deutsche Telecom, and there are contacts with Cisco's CEO who visited Orckit HQ in Tel Aviv. I am going to miss the coming bonanza of Ceragon, but I am unused to speculate with two stocks, playing with two ball in the air is too much for me in this learning stage. Maybe when I am more experienced and older ... (insert sarcastic grin here).

For the record: Orckit is an Israeli startup that during the internet bubble happy days reached 148 dollar per share, and then it fell to less than 1 $, so that it had to do a reverse share split 5:1 to stay in Nasdaq. Then Orckit sold some of its boxes to a Japanese communication firm for 150 million dollars but failed to follow up and made no more sales to this day. It still has about 60 million dollar in cash that may allow it to survive two or three years more without sales. Its share floated long time around 4 $ but a week ago rumors started circulating that a closing was around the corner and the price increased 25%. And now, rumors are fueling even more speculation. Itzik Tamir the CEO said his boxes are great stuff and large communications companies will need to have them this year. Orckit is in my portfolio.

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

World Inflation

Bernanke chose the only way out of the subprime and other unpayable indebtness of America, that is, inflation. Today the US dollar is sold in Rehov Allenby of Tel Aviv (the street corner Georgian fellow) at 3.6 shekels, while only a month ago it was 4.2 shekels. The dollar lost 15% of its value. People with dollar denominated debt is happy, banks and the Chinese bond holders are going to suffer.

Monday, January 28, 2008

Comment on the Affair Kerviel

The TV announcer (Chaim Yavin) said that the Affair Kerviel has Israeli implications, but apparently it does not. So much for Israeli TV news. But the thing is getting more complicated. According to the bank, by January 18, when he was caught, he had positions worth €30bn on the Euro Stoxx, €18bn on Germany’s Dax and €2bn on the UK’s FTSE. Total: 50 billion Euros. Incredible he could do it without complicity from the bank.

Accordingly, he hit back at the bank, accusing it of creating "a smokescreen that would distract the public’s attention from far more substantial losses that it had made in recent months, notably in the unbelievable subprime affair”. "The timing of the bank’s decision to close positions relating to Mr Kerviel’s trading and the manner it executed these trades “itself provoked the losses of €4.5bn”. This affaire is just starting. In the end we will learn how the big bank scalp the investing public.

More on Dr. Gaspar's Race Science Book







I had to wait two hours in a garage in Ariel till the jovial, black bearded Palestinian mechanic repaired my wife's car, and used the time to reflect on yesterday's log. How is that a serious, academic Hungarian "scientist" in the nineteen twenties could get away with classifying the Jews as ... a Black African race? The pic, taken from his book that is on the internet, illustrates the chapter, showing a "Hamita" (with accent in the first "a") girl (Africans were supposed to be descended from the Biblical Ham). The girl's pic may have been taken from a medical book, as she seems to have some kind of eye disease, but anyway, what between her looks and between the appearance of the Jewish lawyers, professors, bankers, journalists, etc. that peopled half of Budapest? (The other half was Donau Schwabian German). It is absolutely insane.

There are several explanations for this strange phenomenon. One says that antisemitism is a mental disease. It certainly looks like that. Dr Gaspar's text is - relatively speaking - quite sane, in that he speaks of real creatures like Africans, and does not attribute any mystical or supernatural features to the Jews. For most of the Middle Ages, Europeans were convinced that Jews were not humans but magic devils. So classifying Ashkenazi Jews as Africans was progress (was it?). But I tend to agree with Prof. MacDonald's opinion of antisemitism, which states that each people and time expresses their antipathy towards Jews with the words and the images they are familiar with. Greeks from the Antiquity said fellow Judeans hated humanity, an expression whose meaning I only guess. Cicero, the great Roman lawyer, describes Jews as lepers (a skin disease) expulsed from Egypt, while in the same chapter writes an elaborate wordplay "demonstration" that Judeans are somehow descendants from a Cretan divinity called Jodde or something sounding like it. Cicero was very familiar with Jewish lawyers in the Roman Forum, and feared them. Middle Age people expressed its hate using images and metaphors of their times, like horned and tailed menstruating devils. In the nineteen twenties it was "science" and their feelings were dressed up as "science". Nowadays this emotion takes the form of "racism" (i.e. we are painted as racists). Who knows what it will be tomorrow. The root of it, according to Prof. Kevin MacDonald, is competition for existencial resources, that is, the antisemites have the gut feeling that they are under a ferocious assault by some superior power. By a coherent group with a coordinated strategy, a group that makes you salient, wealthy and successful. And bed the most attractive girls. They struggle to express collectively their their feelings, and then you have Dr. Gaspar's pseudo-science book, and maybe Prof. Kevin MacDonald's trilogy.

Sunday, January 27, 2008

Magyar Race Theory

It is almost impossible to find original pseudo-scientific race theories on the internet or antique bookshops, nothing in German and very little in English. Thus I was surprised by the rich collection of false race science in Hungarian. Hungarians, living in the German cultural influence, developed their own race literature in the twenties, written in pompous pseudo-scientific jargon and so fantastically against common sense that only during an era when people never travelled nor saw foreign individuals could be read with some seriousness. For example, Gaspary's race science book (all on the internet), classifies the Sudeten Germans as Mongoloid, with big round heads and dark skin. Schwabian Germans are of East Baltic race, that is, Asiatics (see pic). Jews are classified as Hamitic negroes and the Jewish chapter is illustrated with semi-naked African tribesmen. Since Ashkenazi Jews have a much higher frequency of blond and blue eyed individuals that Hungarians or even Germans, they could be classified as Africans only if the readers had no first hand experience with real Africans and have never seen a Black person. Which was true in Central Europe in the twenties. The Hungarian chapter is interesting, because it tries to glorify the noble founding Magyar race while showing that Hungarians are more European than the Germans or Danes. The classification is very confused, the whole thing is shere nonsense. I quote extracts in Hungarian: The first paragraph demonstrates that original Hungarians from Turan (Central Asia) were exterminated in Hungary and the country is peopled by ethnic Serbs, Croats, and other neighboring peoples. I presume that in the twenties this was so obvious (the rural population did not yet speak Hungarian) that it could not be talked away.

A mohácsi vész a nagyon heterogén, éppen ezért önmagával nagyon meghasonlott főnemesség sorában ijesztő pusztítást végzett. 24 ezren maradtak a csatatéren. A parasztlázadásban a különböző nemzetiségű jobbágyok tízezrei pusztultak el. A vérbeli magyarságot a 150 esztendős török járom tizedelte meg. A legmagyarabb vidékek, a magyarság faji központjai teljesen elpusztultak. Generációkon át ép és egészséges emberek csak erőszakos halállal távoztak el e földről. Ahol lakó van és véletlenül a házak száma is fel van jegyezve, ott egy-egy házban alig lakik két embernél több (Szekfű). Elsősorban a turáni magyarság lakóhelyei semmisültek meg (Alföld, Tiszántúl), a keletbalti, impulzívabb magyarság Erdélybe és a királyságba költözött. Súlyosbította a helyzetet, hogy a passzivitásra hajlamosabb turáni magyarság (jórészt már kálvinisták) a születések regressziójával önnönmagát is lassú kihalásra ítélte. Mindnyájuk helyébe pedig idegenek özönlöttek. A Temesköz, Bácska, Szerémség ekkor vált szerbbé és oláhvá. Buda, Komárom, Székesfehérvár szerb városok. Ősi magyar helyek az ország szívében is németek, tótok, szerbek tanyája lelt. — Nemzetiségeink 46.5%-át a XVIII. században engedtük be földünkre. Magyarország lakossága 1711-ben Erdély nélkül 2½ miliió, 1785-ben 7 millió, 1805-ben már majdnem 9 millió. Csupán Harruckern báró birtokain 60—70000 sváb telepedett le. 1715 és 1720 között mintegy 230 új község alakult.

The chapter on Jews is pure phantasy, illustrated with pictures of Africans. The last sentence states that Jews cannot be assimilated and their African blood makes them forever foreign in Europe.
A helyzet ma az, hogy ámbár az öröklés és hasadás törvényeinek megfelelően mindig kikeverednek kisebb nagyobb számban többé-kevésbé tiszta előázsiai, hamita, néger s aránylag legritkábban semita fajtájú egyének is, a zsidóság fajképe a felsorolt elemek sok ezer kombinációjának megfelelően olyan sokszerűséget mutat, amit pontosan alig lehet jellemezni. A magas néger vagy hamita és alacsony előázsiai vagy semita korcsai a szülők magasságmérete között a legváltozatosabb skálában sorakoznak fel. Az orr lehet egyenes, rövid (semita), vagy lapos orrhátú, tág nyílásokkal (néger), de aránylag legerősebben az előázsiai típus üt át hajlott orrháttal, lefelé hajló orrcsúccsal, oldalt kissé felhúzódó nyílással. A szemek fényesek, a szemhéj nehézkes, duzzadt, gyakran a szem alatti redő is megvan, ami a szemnek sajátos lapos, nervozus tekintetet ad. Az ajak még az egyébként szép és arányos semita típusnál is enyhén duzzadt, egyébként azonban érzéki, vastag néger szájig szélesedhet. A hajszín többnyire sötét, de szőke is lehet, a göndörség színre való tekintet nélkül átülhet. A bőrszín halvány barna, vagy vizenyősen fakó fehér, néha az orr-szájközti barázdában és a szem alatt halvány vonalban megjelenik a sötét néger színkomplexió atavizmusa. Az eredeti fajok tiszta vonalai és ritmusai eltűntek a korcsok testaránytalanságaiban s ritmustalan mozdulataiban, Fel-feltűnik a hamiták karcsú, befűzött dereka is, de még általánosabban az előázsiai faj elhízott idomtalansága. Valamennyien pedig korán érnek nemileg.

Ezek után a zsidóságot anthropologiai szempontból következőképp határozhatjuk meg: A zsidóság morfológiailag igen változatos, élettani tekintetben azonban zárt egység. A vallásos elem egy theokratikus mentalitású közösségben él; mivel azonban a zsidóságot összetevő faji elemek mindegyike külön-külön is idegen az európai fajtáknak, az élettani közösségből az sem szabadul, aki elhagyja zsidó vallását, sőt az az európai is kapcsolatba kerül vele, aki zsidó vért vesz magába.

Water Projects in Thailand

A delegation of senior Bangkok municipal officials will visit Israel this week as guests of the Ministry of Industry, Trade and Labor. The delegation is seeking ways to cooperate with Israeli water technology and sewage treatment solutions companies. The current trip follows the visit by a Thai delegation to the International Water Technologies and Environmental Control Exhibition and Conference - Watec 2007 in Tel Aviv last November. The present delegation will visit companies with technologies and systems that can be utilized by the Bangkok municipal water system.
Am I too busy to seek out larger, more profitable projects?

200 years with the Russians

One book I have to read is Solzhenitsyn's 200 Years Together, where he deals with the fact that Jews were as much perpetrators of the Communist repression as its victims. Two Hundred Years Together - a reference to the 1772 partial annexation of Poland and Russia which greatly increased the Russian Jewish population - contains three chapters discussing the Jewish role in the revolutionary genocide and secret police purges of Soviet Russia. A third of Kiev's Cheka, for example, was of the Jewish nationality. He writes:
Try putting yourself in the shoes of the small body of Bolsheviks who had seized power and were barely holding on to it. Whom could they trust? To whom should they turn for help? ... As we see, the Bolsheviks invited Jews starting with the very first days after assuming power, offering both leadership positions and administrative work with Soviet governmental structures. The result? Many, very many, responded positively, doing so without delay. What the Bolshevik regime needed above all were functionaries who would be absolutely loyal, and it found many such individuals among young secularized Jews along with their Slavic and international confreres.
Wladimir Zhabotinsky [a Jewish writer and founder of the Zionist Revisionist Movement, root of the Likud party] once said that the best service our Russian friends give to us is never to speak aloud about us.

As I see it, if we Jews must be grateful to a people, it is to the Russians. When the murderous nazis conquered Poland and there was nowhere to escape, Russia, alone among all countries, opened its frontier to all refugees. If a few Jews survived in Nazi areas, it was thanks to the Red Army. They liberated Auschwitz and they liberated the last ghetto, that of Budapest. Paradoxically, the drunken, violent, antisemitic Russian people saved more Jews in the 20th Century than any other people.

Saturday, January 26, 2008

One New Disease Per Year




If there was not enough to worry about, now the World Health Organization publishes a report, A Safer Future, announcing that new diseases are emerging at the "historically unprecedented" rate of one per year. Since the 1970s, 39 new diseases have developed, and in the last five years alone, the WHO has identified more than 1,100 epidemics including cholera, polio and bird flu. "It would be extremely naive and complacent to assume that there will not be another disease like Aids, another Ebola, or another Sars, sooner or later," the report says.

The Cape Panamex Handy Index Falls



Something is wrong. I invested a lot, a lot, in Israel Corporation, based on the concept that it was about to list its ZIM dry shipping company on the Singapur or Hang Seng market, since there was a window of higher shipping prices till 2010. But the Baltic Dry Index, shows a surprising collapse. In the pic the Daily Chart For Cape/Panamax/Handy (4 TC AVERAGE Values = The Average Value of the Four Main Shipping Routes applicable for each of the 3 types of Ships. BDI=The Weighted Composite Index of BCI/BPI/BHMI). Israel Corporation is 15 - 20 % below the average of my purchase price. After my Brent Oil Put Options failure, yet another mistake?

Kenyans Sort Out Themselves By Race




Kenya is a beautiful, multiracial political unit in Africa. After half a century of peace, the Luo (ink-black, tall people called Nilotic. Barak Obama is a Luo.) and the Kikuyu (brown and shorter, from the Bantu peoples) decided to have a civil war. The Luo are evacuating the East by any transport means available, moving to their ancestral lands in Western Kenya. Non-Luo people is leaving as fast as they can to Eastern Kenya.

DAX down 7% caused by Jerome Kerviel


The pieces are falling in place and we are understanding what happened. As panic swept European markets on Monday, word spread that a big hedge fund was in trouble and dumping stocks. Someone was selling, all right — Société Générale. The French bank was frantically unwinding an estimated $75 billion of bad bets on European stocks placed by a rogue trader, Jérôme Kerviel.

Kerviel built a virtual company within Societe Generale, bank officials said. He balanced each bet with a fictitious one for almost a year. On Jan. 18, a routine check found a trade that exceeded the bank's limits. A call to the other party in the trade found the transaction didn't exist.``He was running two books simultaneously, one real and one false,'' Chief Executive Officer Daniel Bouton said.

From his desk, Kerviel, took huge bullish positions on the Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 index and the German DAX in particular. Société Générale rushed to unwind those trades during Monday’s market plunge, and trading in those futures contracts soared to record levels. The bank’s abrupt reversal contributed to a decline that snowballed into an avalanche of sell orders around the world. The graph shows the DAX (German Bourse) index fall.

“Société Générale’s unwinding of those positions pressured indexes worldwide,” said Barry L. Ritholtz. “And wouldn’t it be embarrassing if the Fed had to make one of the biggest emergency rate cuts ever because of some rogue trader?” “I definitely think there is a link,” said Byron R. Wien. “Bernanke has been reacting to events, rather than anticipating them,” he said.

Friday, January 25, 2008

Unexploded Kassam Rocket in Israel






The rocket is still full of explosives. Each day four or five are fired on Israel.

Gary Reads the Winds

For the first time I notice a change in Gary's reading or the future. He is no more optimistic in the short term, but he has moved the good times ahead in the calendar. The undying pessimism of the current market has got him too.
I still expect US stocks to rise sharply later this year as the undying belief in an imminent recession begins to fade and the uncertainty currently surrounding the financial sector continues to lift substantially.
I respect his opinion, based on systematic collecting of relevant information and methodical, cold analysis, and of course his vast experience. What he is lacking, I think, is international perspective. I think Wall Street is falling like London did before, and new poles are arising. China comes to my mind. Israel Electric Corporation is raising money in Singapur, and this is no accident but the start of a trend.

Construction Mistake,or Why I Should Ask for More Money.










I am working myself up to start working on the design of a new supermarket. I asked for very little money but the boss motivated me saying that we have three more supermarkets to open this year. The owner of the chain is an old Bucharan Jew who wanted to retire and sell the chain. The deal was announced in the papers, the price was over 20 million dollars, but in the end one of his sons won and took over the chain and is expanding it at the maximum rate. Originally it was a Southern chain specializing in low-income neighborhoods, but the new shops are all in the wealthy Central Israel. They have located several "White Elephants", that is, completely new buildings that for one reason or other did not receive permits and were not occupied. The new place I am working now had been designed for the Greenberg chain, which disappeared five years ago. Since then, the place is empty.

The building (see pic) is nice but as I am learning and designing, I am finding more and more mistakes. For example, below we can see the rectangular hole on the ceiling, closed with paper, which was designed to house the vertical pipes of the building. The building contractor built in the pipes about 2 meters off the shaft, through the concrete, and had to make a correction (as seen in the pics below, the pipes make a strange detour under the ceiling). The correction is still unsuitable, because misses once more the shaft and the pipes penetrate the concrete ceiling/floor. Eli, the young owner, noticed immediately the problem. He asked me if we can move the pipes, I said no problem, but i did not understand what he was talking about. The problem is that the fire fighting water pipe (white & red) has a hydrant at eye level, and tfree access had to be ensured. Access means unused, lost floor space, so we are going to move the pipes - and make the owner of the building to pay for it. Our argument is that in the original design the pipes are supposed to be in the shaft (the rectangular hole on the ceiling corner) and not where they are now. The real estate agent (a cute girl) said that the place had been rented as it is, after having seen it, and the chain has de facto agreed to the take the place as it is and not as it was designed. Anyway, that is for the lawyers to fight off. The problem of correcting the mistake is in my hands.


Orckit's Future




I am still invested in Orckit, an Israeli company manufacturing balck boxes for communication companies. The company signed a large contract with KDDI the second Japanese conglomerate, but it has not been followed by other contracts. The company has 60 million dollars cash and no sales in the last two years. Its stock is now 5$ which roughly equals the money in the bank. Periodically there are rumors that some German, Indian, etc. company is going to install Orckit boxes, but it is never confirmed. One contract and the value of the stock doubles. In the pic: Itzik Tamir, the CEO.

Thursday, January 24, 2008

General Butt Naked















"I had a special power, so I was always first in combat. I conquered towns before the others arrived to clean it up. I could make myself invisible." Thus declared Joshua Milton Blahyi in the Committe for Truth and Reconciliation of Liberia, Monrovia. He was known as General Butt Naked, because he fought naked to scare the enemy. "Each time we took a town, it was imperative to make a human sacrifice to maintain my power. They brought me a child and I cut out his heart and ate it." In 1996 he had a vision and became an Evangelist preacher. "One day, a woman came to me and offered his son. I took his heart and shared it with my men. With his blood on my hands, Jesus appeared to me and told me to stop being a slave of Satan." He declared that he had been doing Satan's work but now his life is dedicated to serve God. "I waited for this opportunity to tell my story and now I feel relieved."

A Satisfactory Job





I was invited to a very large (in Israeli terms) cookie factory. They were having problems with their wastewater, which had exceptionally large concentrations of organic lipids, COD, BOD, suspended matter. Years were impotent to solve the problem. They had built an enormous FOG interceptor, formed by 3 separate chambers of 12 cu.m. each, and they pumped off them every two months. No doing. The samples were ugly and the factory was (is in fact) in danger of being closed down by the environmental authorities.

I submitted a proposal of 700 dollars plus tax, payable AFTER solving the problem. It was accepted ipso facto. I promised to check the problem this week, but it was rainy and cold. Today it was a sunny morning and I was in good mood, after solving a mindboggling sprinkler scheme for a restaurant (the place is full of decoration so my designs were rejected for interfering with hanging lamps and mouldings). I started my detective work and soon found myself followed by Arab youngsters who were supposed to be working. I explained what I was doing and they relaxed and went back to smoking and playing backgammon and teasing the flirting girls coming out for a smoke. I had to put on a discardable red head dress and fisherman overall, like in TEVA's research laboratories. Most of the workers are young girls and boys (or is it that I am very old? possibly) and some of them were actually working hand-rolling all kind of butter cookies. Then an old man looking like a handyman (pic) appeared and I asked him if he was familiar with the building, and he said that he himself had built it, being the owner of the outfit. I asked for his help, and he said he will help but please dont tell the manager, because he was persona-non-grata in the plant.




In less than an hour of detective work we found out that two chambers of the three chamber interceptor were full of solidified whitish FOG, fatty materials, that have been never pumped out. How it can be so if they pump it off every two month with two vacuum tankers? Obviously they had been cheated all the time, the pumpers vacuumed the first chamber and never even opened the second and third chamber. I went to the manager, he called the girl in charge of the environmental aspects and she brought the accounts and it was a mess. The pumpers have submitted bills for 36 and more cubic meters and attached a receipt from LIPODAN (the sewage fat processor monopoly) for 40 or more cubic meters, and then the girl had paid them two tankers that had been weighted. But she was a young girl just back from her Indian post-Army tour, her nickname is Shanty, no match for the sewage gangsters. I asked to supervise the next pumping and pressure washing of the whole system. If the subsequent sample is OK, I have earned my 700 dollars ! Hahaha !

Re-reading the above I notice that the solution of the problem seems so simple and obvious. But that's the way misteries are, after solving them they seem so simple and straighforward. But before they seem unsolvable.

The Kerviel Mystery




The French bank Société Générale said it had uncovered “an exceptional fraud” by a trader that would cost it $7.1 billion, and that it was raising about 5.5 billion euros in fresh capital to shore up its finances. The company said that the fraud had been committed by one lonely trader whose present whereabouts was unknown. A banker close to the situation identified the trader as Jérôme Kerviel (pic). The 9 PM news on Israeli TV said the case has implications for Israel, as the money ended in this country and in the Palestinian Authority. Unbelievable. Kerviel is not a Jewish name, it is a French Bretagne rooted family name. As we ddint have enough Jewish thieves and gonefs in Israel, now we are importing French ones.

Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Acaparamiento Golpista















Hugo Chavez's Venezuela started spiralling down, and there is a growing scarcity of basic foods (milk, sugar, etc.). The Colombian border is closed and trucks coming with food were expropriated (pic). The Venezuelan National Oil Corporation started to import food and is retailing it at street level. Venezuela is now producing very little and living from its (declining) oil exports.

World Financial Instability








I did not believe it, but Rogers was right and the subprime mortgages problem could not be contained and is menacing to cause a general panic. I am planning to sit out this bear market doing nothing.

Gaza - Egypt Border Open




In the current international political environment, closed borders are almost impossible to maintain. (Those Americans that demand closed borders with Mexico are dreaming of a world that ended a generation ago). Yesterday someone dynamited the border wall separating Gaza from Egypt, and about half a million persons rushed to have look at Rafiah, a fly-specked Beduin encampment in the Sinai desert. Gaza's situation is so suffocating that even Egypt looks free and rich to them. The internal pressure of Gaza is caused by Israel, that is under daily rocket fire from Gaza. The pressure is not working, and today already they fired about forty rocket bombs on Israel.

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Viva President Rudy Giuliani







Mayor Giulani leads the hard-line neoconservative line in the 2009 Presidential Elections. While U.S. attorney in New York, Giuliani tried to close the PLO’s New York office. As mayor, he made headlines in 1995, when he had Arafat ejected from a concert at Lincoln Center. In a speech to the Republican Jewish Coalition this fall, Rudy pointed to this incident as emblematic of his leadership style:
“I didn’t hesitate, like Hillary Clinton hesitates to answer questions on what she’s going to do about Iran. I didn’t seek to negotiate with him, like Barack Obama would do or says he’d do with these people. I didn’t call for a team of lawyers to help me. … I just made a decision. See, I lead. That’s what [being a] leader is about.”
In the pic, Rudy hands to Walid, a visiting Saudi goatherd, the bill for stolen tablecloths from New York restaurants.

Asteroid hits TASE










Lost 10% on paper in two days.

Monday, January 21, 2008

TASE re-engages and crashes into Planet Earth


This is my first bear market in years. We have been in worse times and survived.

Sunday, January 20, 2008

TASE disengages from Planet Earth


The trading day opened on TASE (Tel Aviv Stock Exchange) on this Sunday (a working day for us Jews) with continued collapse of stock prices, as affected by Wall Street pessimism. Then gradually the people woke up and opened their eyes and realized that this is not America. The nauseous smell of schwarmah invaded their nostrils, the municipal pneumatic jackhammers ripped their hymeneal eardrums, the anorectic secretaries hid behind a wall of hostility, aggressiveness and sarcasm. It is a cloudless azure Sunday outside but dark energy killer hate-rays zip from people's eyes. We must be in Israel. Coming back to themselves they thought, if I am in Israel, waht should I care about Wall Street collapsing? What am I, a NYC building inspector? Let them fall and shatter. Israel is booming. Unemployment is under 6%, even the Beduin are working. Except for Orckit, the hi tech industry has six years of advance orders. The agricultural chemical business is expanding. So the index finished up. A good dominant day in a recessive world.

IKEA in Israel achieves Israeli Status


If the reader has been following the story of IKEA's new outlet in Rishon LeZion, knows that the owner Matthew Bronfman invested 100 million $ but his investment was in danger because rival furniture shops found a legal problem in the permitting procedure. Now a solution was found, a typical Israeli bureaucratic solution that in fact says: "Mr Bronfman, I declare your business illegal, you have not my official permit. But I shall close my eyes to that fact while you fight the endless bureaucratic battle to legalize your permit. Know that should anything, but anything, go wrong, I shall be judged the innocent and injured party and you will be punished sevenfold for operating an illegal business. And be pre-advised, in a year I shall come to have a look at what are doing." In that terms, IKEA will be able to open its store and sell its wares. It is now fully Israeli and kosher.

20 Jan 08 12:52 IKEA Israel has obtained an occupancy permit for a building in Rishon LeZion slated for use as a warehouse. At the same time, the Israel Lands Administration (ILA) has notified the Supreme Court that it agreed to delay execution by one year of the ruling voiding Ikea's win in the tender for the Me’uyan Soreq lot in Rishon LeZion, slated for the company's second store. In December, the Tel Aviv District Court ruled that the Rishon LeZion municipality discriminated in IKEA's favor by granting preferred financial conditions in awarding the lot to the company, controlled by Bronfman Fisher Investments Ltd. The decision voids the company's purchase of the lot. Ten weeks earlier, the Tel Aviv Court for Administrative Affairs voided the permits for extraordinary use that the Rishon LeZion municipality granted to both IKEA and Gazit-Globe Ltd. (TASE: GLOB) subsidiary Gazit Israel (Development) Ltd. for their lots in the city.

All­embracing kindness



Where is the money going? In 2007 China's foreign reserves increased by $500b (Brad Setser) which is roughly equal to combined increase in the foreign assets of the world’s big oil exporters over the course of the same year.

While the Arabs are using their excess savings to build cities in the desert, the Chinese are buying American debt. China is four times America (in terms of population) so already a generation ahead it will find that America is too small, marginal, and will turn in itself once more. When the American mission will arrive to Beijing begging for access to the huge Chinese market, the Secretary of the Communist Party may say: Your toys are ingenious and funny, but thank you, we have everything we need in China. What is, more or less, what the Chinese Emperor answered to the British King George III 300 years ago.

You, O King, live beyond the confines of many seas, nevertheless, impelled by your humble desire to partake of the benefits of our civilisation, you have dispatched a mission respectfully bearing your memorial. Your Envoy has crossed the seas and paid his respects at my Court on the anniversary of my birthday. To show your devotion, you have also sent offerings of your country's produce.

I have perused your memorial: the earnest terms in which it is couched reveal a respectful humility on your part, which is highly praiseworthy. In consideration of the fact that your Ambassador and his deputy have come a long way with your memorial and tribute, I have shown them high favour and have allowed them to be introduced into my presence. To manifest my indulgence, I have entertained them at a banquet and made them numerous gifts. I have also caused presents to be forwarded to the Naval Commander and six hundred of his officers and men, although they did not come to Pekin.

Swaying the wide world, I have but one aim in view, namely, to maintain a perfect governance and to fulfil the duties of the State: strange and costly objects do not interest me. If I have commanded that the tribute offerings sent by you, O King, are to be accepted, this was solely in consideration for the spirit which prompted you to dispatch them from afar. Our dynasty's majestic virtue has penetrated unto every country under Heaven, and Kings of all nations have offered their costly tribute by land and sea. As your Ambassador can see for himself, we possess all things. I set no value on objects strange or ingenious, and have no use for your country's manufactures. It behoves you, O King, to respect my sentiments and to display even greater devotion and loyalty in future, so that, by perpetual submission to our Throne, you may secure peace and prosperity for your country hereafter so they too may share in my all­embracing kindness.

Saturday, January 19, 2008

Crazy People





World Chess Champion Bobby Fisher died at age 64. He was crazy like a goat, a clinical paranoid, querulous and unfit. Reading about his behaviour, I recognized and understood him, because I live among people like him. From his behaviour I always, instinctively, felt he was a Hungarian Jew, but his ethnic identity was always somewhat of a mistery, so I doubted. After his death, the details are coming to light. Of course he was a Hungarian Jew, like all of us are.

Paul F. Nemenyi - Fischer's father, though not listed on the birth certificate - was a Hungarian Jewish physicist. He was admitted to the US with the refugee scholar program, and worked for the Manhattan Project. The original family name was Neumann. Bobby´s mother, Regina, spoke six languages and had studied medicine in Moscow during the Stalin era. A psychiatrist once diagnosed her as paranoid.

In 1942, Regina Fischer was in Denver. She was taking classes at the University of Denver. At 29, Regina had already lived in eight other cities, four other countries. This was her ninth job and her sixth university. She was the mother of a 5-year-old girl, and she was alone. Her husband, Hans-Gerhardt Fischer, was thousands of miles away in Santiago, Chile, barred by immigration authorities from entering the United States, probably because he was a Communist. Into the void stepped Paul Nemenyi.

Nemenyi himself was no heartthrob (pic above: Left: Bobby Fischer, Right: Paul Nemenyi). He was 47, a Hungarian refugee and a theoretical engineer teaching at a nearby college. He made $165 a month and shuffled when he walked. An animal-rights supporter, he refused to wear wool to keep warm. Instead, he walked around in winter with his pajamas poking out from beneath his clothes.

Still, he had a compelling mind. "He was smart, very, very smart," recalls Charlotte Truesdell, who worked at a research laboratory with Nemenyi in the '40s. "He had a strange kind of memory. He remembered things by their shapes."

Regina, daughter of a Polish Jew, had moved to the United States with her family as a baby, but returned to Europe as a young adult and studied medicine. Like Nemenyi, she lived in Berlin in the early '30s, when Hitler was coming to power. It was there that she met Fischer, with whom she moved to Moscow, where they lived for several years under Stalin.

There is a terse account of the liaison in the 900-page file that the FBI eventually compiled on Regina. The investigation began in 1942, when a baby-sitter found what she believed to be pro-communist letters belonging to Regina and turned them over to the FBI. Nemenyi told one FBI informant, a social worker, that he met Regina at the University of Denver. But whatever follows in the file, as released under the Freedom of Information Act, is censored by the FBI. When the narrative again picks up, suddenly Bobby is in the picture. The file says, "He [NEMENYI] advised he helped support the boy."

But by the time of Bobby's birth, Regina had moved to Chicago, while Nemenyi was teaching in Rhode Island. She gave birth to her son alone, in a clinic for poor single mothers. And on the birth certificate, she listed Fischer as the father. She briefly considered putting her newborn son up for adoption. But in talking to a social worker - who would later share the story with the FBI - she broke down and cried, unable to go through with it.

Regina then moved into a Chicago home for fatherless families. Ever the nonconformist, she led a rebellion among the other mothers, encouraging them to question the institution's rules. The home called the police, and Regina was arrested and charged with disturbing the peace. She was acquitted. A court-ordered psychological exam found her to be "paranoid" and "querulous." That description might also fit her son.

At the Marshall Chess Club in New York, members sit over inlaid chess tables, kibitz and analyze games. In the late '50s, the club's board of governors held an unusual meeting. The subject was Bobby Fischer. He had moved to Brooklyn with his family in 1949, at the age of 6. At 11, by his own reckoning, he "just got good." His mother was often working double shifts as a private-duty nurse. "Some of what he did was so outrageous it was decided maybe he had emotional problems," says Kaufman, who attended the meeting. What to do? Board members talked about finding a psychiatrist. They considered Reuben Fine, himself one of the giants of the game. Then someone raised a question: What if therapy worked? What if treatment sapped Fischer's drive to win, depriving the United States of its first homegrown world champ? Meeting adjourned. No one, Kaufman recalls, wanted to tamper with that finely tuned brain.

Bobby's family worried about him even earlier than that. When Bobby was 3, Nemenyi visited a social worker to complain about the way Regina was raising him. By then, he and Regina had split, and he was living in Washington. Regina was "mentally upset," and Bobby was an "upset child," he told the caseworker, apparently without results. Two years later, Nemenyi sought help again, telling a social worker that his son was "not being brought up in desirable circumstances, due to the instability of the mother." Regina herself sought the help of social workers when Bobby was 14. She described him as "temperamental, unable to get along with others, without friends his age, and without any interests other than chess." But this was not just another kid absorbed in a hobby. This was the best chess player in the country. Bobby won the U.S. chess championship in 1957 - the same year Regina complained of his obsession - edging out 46-year-old Samuel Reshevsky, one of the greatest players the game has seen.

On April 1, 1933, the Nazis came for Paul Nemenyi; it was also the day of a general boycott of Jewish shops and businesses in Berlin. The charges, when SS troops arrested him, were that Nemenyi had made "calumnious statements" against Hitler's government. He was jailed for a day, then released. Not enough evidence. Still, Nemenyi would lose his university teaching job the following week, when Hitler purged the civil service of Jews. Nemenyi, then 37, had already fled fascism in his homeland, Hungary, where anti-Semitic laws had been enacted. Now he would have to run again. He was being uprooted at a promising point in his career, having just published a groundbreaking textbook on fluid mechanics that would be required reading in German universities. Some of the other Hungarian refugees living in Berlin at the time would flee to America and become some of the most prominent scientists of the 20th century. Nemenyi knew the giants, and they knew him, though he would never be as accomplished. They were all part of an elite intellectual circle being hounded out of Europe. Nemenyi fled first to Denmark, then to Britain. In the fall of 1938, he sailed to the United States to find a job. He headed to Princeton to consult with Albert Einstein. Nemenyi also gave his resume to the Emergency Committee in Aid of Displaced Foreign Scholars, a New York organization that tried to find work for the hundreds of academics fleeing Europe. But his personality got in the way. "He is an unstable and undesirable person," one note in the committee's files reads. Nemenyi finally found a job working for Einstein's son, Hans-Albert, at the University of Iowa's hydrology lab. It was the first in a string of short-term teaching jobs around the country. Nemenyi's fellow Hungarian, the great aeronautical scientist Theodore von Karman, proclaimed him a misfit. "When he came to this country, he went to scientific meetings in an open shirt without a tie and was very much disappointed as I advised him to dress as anyone else," von Karman wrote of Nemenyi in one letter. "He told me that he thought this is a country of freedom, and the man is only judged according to his internal values and not his external appearance."

Life in America remained something of a disappointment. Nemenyi never landed a job at the most prestigious schools, never wrote the book he had planned on fluid mechanics. He was a physicist and a theoretician. But when he met Regina in 1942, he had a temporary job teaching freshman math at the University of Colorado.

After Paul's death in 1961 Regina Fischer's life was desperate. He had been paying for 8-year-old Bobby's education and sending $20 a week. She had long since divorced Gerhardt Fischer, who had never lived with her in the United States. She was in nursing school in Brooklyn, broke and facing eviction. Regina wrote to Peter Nemenyi, Paul's son, who was then getting his doctorate in math at Princeton. She asked if any money had been set aside for Bobby. "Bobby has not had a decent meal at home this past month and was sick two days with fever and sore throat, and of course a doctor or medicine was out of the question," she wrote. "I don't think Paul would have wanted to leave Bobby this way and would ask you most urgently to let me know if Paul left anything for Bobby."

It is unclear what Bobby knew at that point about his relationship to Paul Nemenyi. It is clear that they knew each other. Regina told Peter in her letter, "Bobby is still expecting Paul." Regina didn't want to be the one to tell Bobby of Nemenyi's death. She hoped Peter would do it. But Peter was uncomfortable with that, so he wrote to a family doctor for advice. "I take it you know that Paul was Bobby Fischer's father," he wrote, saying that he didn't feel "qualified" to break the news, having met the boy only a couple of times. "The matter is further complicated by the false pretenses about Bobby's identity and the parents' differences of opinion over this question," Peter wrote.

Not a happy, likeable people. My people.

Friday, January 18, 2008

Szerencsés Imre

Hungary was a Great European power in the Middle Ages, and its treasurier traditionally was a Jew. Fortunatus was Louis II's finance minister and he is remembered for leaving the Jewish religion for a woman. Szerencsés (Fortunatus) Imre, aki II. Lajos király pénzügyminisztere volt, egy nõügye következtében kényszerült felvenni a keresztény vallást. A mohácsi vész után Szerencsés Imre elõzõ, zsidó házasságából való fiai Belgrádba (Nándorfehérvárra) menekültek, ahol alig akarták õket a Tóra elé engedni. A helyi rabbi ezért kérdést (sájlet) intézett egy itáliai tudóstársához. A válaszból kiderül, hogy a fiúk apja lélekben mindvégig zsidó maradt, sok jótéteményt tett a közösség javára, ezért még érte is lehet és kell imát mondatni…

Tirofijo




Our project, should we win the bidding process, is on the frontier between Ecuador and Colombia, an area ruled by the FARC. In the pic, Pedro Antonio Marín aka "Tirofijo" ("Sureshot"), leader of the FARC-EP ("Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia - Ejército del Pueblo"). In March 2006, Alberto Gonzales, the Attorney General of the United States, announced in conjunction with DEA and Department of Justice officials that the State Department had placed a $5 million dollar reward on Tirofijo's head, or for information leading to his capture. I hope not to meet Mr Tirafijo.

Tungurahua Active Again













A year ago I worked in the Tungurahua Province and visited Los Banos, where water problems were rumored to occur as consequence of the volcano's unquiet. The Tungurahua glaciar on the top of the mountain was visibly retreating, nothing like the picture above that was taken in the good times, with full glaciar. I attributed the ice topping's fast retreat to global warming. Apparently my diagnosis was wrong, the volcano simply was warming up in preparation for the coming eruption.














The volcano today. It must be a powerful presence. I want to see it. This evening we sent the proposal for a project. I hope to win and be in Ecuador soon.

Qassam Missile Misses Sderot City











All openings to Gaza are closed. No one comes in, no one goes out. Till they stop attacking Israel.

Thursday, January 17, 2008

The Mount Eyval Altar







The first cultic centre established by the invading Israelites was on Mount Eyval, in the tribal lands of Ephraim, in Shomron. The place was little excavated because of Palestinian sensibilities but it follow in an eery way its description in the Bible. The center of the altar has a black layer where sacrifices were burnt. A first study examined 942 bones, representing 50-100 specimens. These were attributed to four kinds of animals: goats, sheep, cattle, and fallow deer. The latter is a light-spotted animal which inhabited the woodlands of our country in antiquity. Examination of the sex and age of the animals revealed that all those that could be diagnosed were young males, approximately one year old. This correlates remarkably with the laws of sacrifice in the book of Leviticus: And the Lord called unto Moses, and spoke unto him out of the tent of meeting, saying: Speak unto the children of Israel, and say unto them: When any man of you bringeth an offering unto the Lord, ye shall bring your offering of the cattle, even of the herd or of the flock. If his offering be a burnt-offering of the herd, he shall offer it a male without blemish (Leviticus 1:1-3). A great part of the bones had been burned over a fire and were cut near the joints. Being scorched in this way attests that the flesh was not intended for eating but was burned over an open fire (i.e. not in an oven).

Disinformation



Photo opportunity in Kuwait: Bush with a traditional local weapon. According to highly unreliable sources, Bush gave green light to an Israeli military operation in Gaza on the condition to transfer the conquered areas to Abu Mazen, from the Palestinian Authority. May be. May be not.

Magic Dream Town



The bad weather continues on TASE. I may invest in art. The artist is Zlatopolsky, the price of the painting is only 1,100 $. Technique: Oil on canvas. Dimensions 84*64 cm Provenance Artist Location Israel Condition Good, signed, framed, with CoA


Michael Zlatopolsky was born in 1958 in L’vov (the former USSR). He studied (1975-1980) in the L’vov Academy for architecture. In 1990, he repatriated to Israel and work as architect and art-designer in landscape, sculpture and interior designer. His paintings are full of love to Israel and to traditions and the grandeur of Judaism. He participated in many exhibitions and his works are in numerous private collections in Germany, Canada, USA, Norway, Russia and Israel.

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Not a Good Day on TASE


Orckit lost 4%. I had bought the stock on a false rumor that Deutsche Com was about to buy their equipment. On Nasdaq it is rising. Let see if Itzik Tamir the CEO is able to close a deal. I am also losing on Makhteshim and on Koor. Makhteshim is being badmouthed by the analysts, that its business model is wrong because nowadays seed and herbicides are a package deal, and Monsanto succeeded in monopolozing the whole soya and corn crops in America cornering out competitors. The owner of the controlling shares, Koor, quietly put out a word that Makhteshim is for sale. Not a good day. The pic shows Michael Zlatopolsky (an Israeli painter)'s Birds.

My "Bor Butza" - Herzliya WWTP's sludge reservoir

The Environmental Protection Ministry issued a warning to the Herzliya Municipality for violating the water law. According to the ministry, Herzliya has failed to clean up an unusedquarry which has filled with 3,900 tons of water and thousands more pounds of refuse. The garbage and standing water has polluted the area. The violation carries a maximum penalty of NIS 350,000 or a year in jail. The ministry ordered the municipality to present a detailed clean-up plan by the end of February and to clear the quarry by July 1, 2008.

I am sending a proposal to do the planning.

La Venganza Sera Terrible











A miserable coward Palestinian sniper killed a 22 y.o. Ecuadorian Christian volunteer at Kibbutz Ein Hashlosha near the Gaza Strip early this morning. Hamas's armed wing claimed responsibility for killing the kibbutz volunteer. "Ayin tachat ayin", eye for eye it will be.












On the same day's evening: UPDATE












Mahmood Zahar, a HAMAS chieftain, shows his killed son's blood. The son was shot together with other 18 armed Palestinians as consequence of IDF's operations during the day.











The night is here. Outside it is dark and cold. The ground is trembling, Tzahal is moving on. God of the Armies is with us.











Early Wednesday morning here: Islamic Jihad's top military commander in the West Bank was killed. The special forces entered Qabatiya, south of Jenin, in the early morning hours and surrounded the home in which the 44-year-old chieftain was hiding. A gun battle broke out, and Obeidi eventually exited the home and opened fire on the special forces, who returned fire, killing him.











Wednesday Lunch time here: An IDF antitank missile killed accidentally three Palestinian civilians in Gaza.








A house in Sderot in Southern Israel was destroyed this evening by a Hamas missile. No casualties. The low level fighting goes on.

Epilogue: End of the Dream

Mi hermano dejaba huella adonde quiera que iba. Él nos hacía bromas, era una persona inquieta que siempre buscaba qué hacer”, dice con voz entrecortada Diana Mosquera, la hermana de Carlos Andrés Mosquera, quien fue víctima, el martes 15, de un francotirador palestino.

Carlos Andrés se comunicaba todos los días con su familia desde que arribó a Israel, el 5 de noviembre del 2007. El único día que no pudieron hablar fue el lunes 14, pocas horas antes de su muerte. El joven ecuatoriano, hijo de una familia de clase media de Quito, tenía fascinación por viajar y conocer el mundo. Era el menor de tres hermanos, Max de 33, Diana de 30 y él, que este domingo iba a cumplir 21 años. Sus padres, Carlos Mosquera y Mercedes Chávez, siempre apoyaron a Carlos Andrés en cumplir el sueño de viajar, que con ilusión contaba a sus amigos y familiares, refiere su hermana. “Él nos contaba que se escuchaban bombas, porque el kibutz estaba cerca de la frontera con Gaza. Pero nos decía que el lugar era seguro y que no nos preocupáramos”, agrega. El embajador ecuatoriano en Tel Aviv, Rafael Veintimilla, informó que el cuerpo será enviado hoy a Quito.

Monday, January 14, 2008

Many zeros




For my record: Today my portfolio jumped a symbolic zero zero zero etc. number. I know that it is an artifact of calculation, caused by a rapidly sinking dollar. Today I can buy an American dollar for only 3.7 Israeli shekels.

Gary's comment today:
Last week, I said a significant confidence-boosting near-term catalyst needed to materialize soon to prevent the major averages from taking out recent lows. It looks like the (IBM) report was that catalyst. As well, (SAP) is rising 4.1% on its report. These reports should quell global economic slowdown concerns and investor reaction to them should greatly worry the many bears, specifically the tech bears.
With such inflation, the American stock market will inevitably rise, most surely in current dollar terms but also probably in real terms. I am optimist. The future will be better. Hoy mejor que ayer.

The illustration: Newton iteration in the complex plane for a polynomial of degree 32 whose zeros are: 0, minus the 15th roots of the unity and two times the 16th roots of the unity.

Miracle Weight Control Chewing Gum

Chewing too much sugar-free gum could lead to extreme weight loss of up to 20% of a person's normal body weight. The work, which appears in the journal BMJ, consists of two case studies. In the first, a 21-year old woman reported experienced severe diarrhea four to twelve times per day. She'd lost 11 kilograms and had a body mass index of 16.6, substantially below normal. Patient interviews revealed she was chewing about 15 pieces of sugar free gum per day. She stopped chewing the gum and her symptoms disappeared. A middle aged man had similar symptoms and the same weight-gain upon cessation of gum chewing.

Given that most weight-loss drugs have a difficult time producing one-pound per week weight loss, you might think the scientists would trumpet these findings as a prelude to the newest blockbuster pharmaceutical. But sadly, the drop in pounds was the result of diarrhea and other bowel-trouble caused by ingesting too much sorbitol, a common sweetener that has laxative properties at high dosages.

I am starting tomorrow.

Oversized Interceptor Not Working



I visited a recently built factory and it has an oversized FOG interceptor - 27 or 37 cubic meters. But the samples show very high lypid content, which is technically impossible. They asked me to solve the problem, but I had yet to think what I shall propose.