Friday, May 01, 2009

What's going on?

US non oil goods imports were down by an estimated 39% (on an annualized basis) in the first quarter.

Prof. Hamilton is optimistic and says that the recession will end by early June.

4 comments:

Ronduck said...

Maybe we bought so much for almost a decade that most of our needs for goods are met.

J said...

Ronduck,

Needs are infinite. Resources are finite.

When you marry and have teenager daughters you will understand.

Be well!

Ronduck said...

Well, let me quibble with this. Needs are finite, but wants are infinite. And a nation's wants and desires vary based on perception and individual psychology.

So, right now we feel poor and are not spending anything. Since we have so much stuff we aren't compelled to buy anything. A good example of this is the automobile sector. America has enough vehicles to service both our legal residents, our illegals and our teenagers, so there is no pressing need to rush out and buy a new car.

Businesses are especially bad about cyclical purchasing, which also exaggerates swings in purchasing. I remember reading a short paper 5 years ago that claimed that a significant number of heavy trucks in the US are 50 years old.

Also, if a significant percentage of our 13-40 million illegals are going home then there are fewer people to purchase anything.

Anonymous said...

Ronduck, they aren't going home. They aren't going anywhere. They'll stay right where they are.

Anon.