Sunday, August 02, 2009

Panic and Pessimism

From 2000 to 2008 16,907 AAA securities were issued. Today, only four AAA remain – Microsoft, Exxon, ADP, J&J

What has changed? Have all (except four) securities turned risky? Is there nothing secure and reliable in this world?

The financial markets are behaving like a girl whose boyfriend has left her. "Men are unreliable. I"ll never believe in a man."

Then, when the next candidate appears, they forget it all.

Corollary: Buy, buy, buy!

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

I do not know whether the rating agencies are now accurate or not, but one of the biggest casualties of the crash was their credibility.

Anon.

J said...

The future is unknown, the past is no sure guide, so risk is impossible to measure. It can be guessed, but guessing is subject to temperament. If some one is fearful of the future, everything looks very, very dangerous. My father at the end of his life was like that, he was afraid of crossing the street alone. May be one day I shall be like him, but just now I am optimist and risks are toothless phantoms. I am sure there are more than 4 AAA out there, or there are none.

Ronduck said...

The ratings agencies exist to ratify others prejudices, they don't actually analyze anything.

Or to put it another way, the ratings are total bullshit.

J said...

Rating is necessary.

Ronduck said...

AFAIK Warren Buffet analyzes his purchases himself.

The rating may be necessary, but currently they are lies.

J said...

The Pythoness never lied. People misunderstood her messsage.