Dr Elisha Kaly who sat next table to me at Tahal, launched the idea that Egypt being so rich in water, it could sell us some to irrigate our Negev desert. Forget it. Egypt is becoming a country that can survive only as a regional military hegemon. It is a very poor country that produces nothing but tourism to earn foreign currency. It needs hard currency to buy food. With a population of 100 million and current (ie pharaonic) irrigation techniques, it needs 100 billion cubic meter water per year to become selfsufficient in food. But it has not that amount of water. Its sole source is the Nile, with about 55 billion cu m. So needs tourist money to import food. Any regional war or internal trouble will dry up the tourist flow and cause famine. Political stability can be maintained even in famine (Ucraine, 1930).
The Nile's annual flow is 84 bill.m3, of which 10 billion evaporates from Lake Nasser (for an Israeli, with a total inflow of 1.8 billion, this is an incredible waste). Like thieves in the night, Egypt divided up the Nile with Sudan - 75% for me, 25% for you. The other eight riparian countries were cut off. The Nile flows into Egypt via Sudan from Ethiopia, Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Burundi, and Eritrea. Egypt has threatened its upstream riparian countries with war if the Nile waters were to decline as a result of irrigation projects in those countries. The threat is synonymous with Egypt decreeing that upstream countries in the Nile basin must not engage in irrigation projects to feed their hungry population so that Egypt’s water allotment is preserved. As a case in point, Ethiopia provides around 55 billion m3 of the Nile’s annual flow, or around two thirds of the flow to Sudan and Egypt. Ethiopia has 200,000 irrigated hectares out of a potential 3.7 million hectares of irrigable land. With a population nearly the size of Egypt, and facing problems in sustaining, Ethiopia will need to develop a large portion of this land for agricultural use. If Ethiopia irrigates only 500,000 hectares, for example, the flow of the Nile to Sudan and Egypt will drop by 6.25 billion m3 per annum.
Global warming, man made or not, will mean less rain and increased evaporation in the Middle East. Hunger in Egypt’s nine upstream riparian countries, combined with Egypt’s own economic plight, make it reasonable to predict that some kind of military hegemony will be necessary to avoid chaos and conflict. If Israeli water technology could be applied in Egypt, there would be more than enough water to go around. Lynn and Vanhanen assigned an IQ of 83 to Egypt, making that technological jump unexpectable.
Post Scriptum: Gadi Evron and others have commented on the above, and from the feedback I get the feeling that I have not established with clarity the coming hegemony's chain of inevitability. My reasoning is as follows:
Lynn and Vanhanen established that two parameters:
(a) IQ as a biological constant, and
(b) the technological - economical level,
are strongly linked, that is, the second is a consequence of the first. Therefore,
(1) Egypt lacks the capability to adopt water efficient food production technologies, and
(2) it is dependent on natural water supply to feed its 100 million inhabitants.
Egypt's sole source of water is the Nile, which is disputed by nine different African countries. It follows that
(3) Egypt can feed its people only by inhibiting the development of the Nile basin's irrigated agriculture,
which necessarily requires
(4) military hegemony.
Quod erat demonstrandum.
We in Israel have escaped this chain thanks to God's grace and the high IQ some of our people was born with, which allows us to manufacture water from the sea and to produce food in artificial environments with a fraction of the water used in Egypt.
Now, let me proceed one step ahead. What kind of military hegemony needs Egypt to ensure that the Nile is not used upstream? Upstream riparian competitors of Egypt are even in worse state that Egypt itself, so they is no local autoctonous pressure to push ahead with irrigated agriculture. They are barely functioning entities that are unable to organize large scale irrigated agriculture projects. The initiative and the executive capability must come from outside development factors, like the World Bank and large NGOs. Fortunately for Egypt, the World Bank has been castrated and abandoned the environmentally disputed irrigation project area. And NGOs are focused on imbecile small scale appropriate technology projects, like rain collecting and hand pumps. So there is no real competition for the Nile's waters. Its hegemony can be maintained on a very low key way, without military intervention.
What kind of military power is needed by Egypt to enforce its hegemony? I think the French model is the best: it is the Foreign Legion in Chad, Senegal, etc.
11 comments:
Is Mexicali more advanced than Egypt?
Thank you for this post, most fascinating like many of your other texts.
In the middle east it always seems to be about either water or oil.
Connecting egypt's policy and future military planning to water was enlightening. We all live under the belief that the Nile provides Egypt with all they need or could possibly want.
And yet, you didn't much write on why this is an inevitability, although you treat it as such?
Ronduck,
Mexicali is much more advanced and more open to progress. First, Mexicans are part of the Western civilization, they speak Spanish and are Christian. Second, they are stone throw distance from the United States, with many connections and interactions with the North. They are and have always been (mixed blood) Europeans.
Gadi,
I quoted Lynn and Vanhanen, who believe that two parameters: (a) IQ as a biological constant, and (b) the technological - economical level, are linked, that is, the second is a consequence of the first. If that is true, (1) Egypt cannot adopt water efficient food production, and (2) it is dependent on abundant natural water supply to survive and feed its 100 million inhabitants. Egypt's sole source of water is the Nile, which is tacitly disputed by nine different countries. Inevitably, (3) Egypt can survive only by inhibiting the development of the region's irrigated agriculture, which necessarily requires (4) military hegemony. Quod era demonstrandum. We in Israel have escaped this chain thanks to the high IQ some of our people was born with, which allows us to manufacture water from the sea and to produce food in artificial environments with less water.
J why does everyone have to have a high IQ? I would think that only 10% of a population need be in that category. The rest can follow procedures to arrive at certain outcomes. Current technology and processes embody the principles of user-friendliness and idiot-proofing. The latest handphones incorporate technologies that would have baffled even the American engineers who put man on the moon, yet even a child can operate them.
Ivan,
Your argument appears perfectly logical and true. For example, Israel has developed into a second Silicon Valley or so, while the people actually working in the field is only about 50 to 100 thousand. I cannot measure their IQ but from the outside, about half of them are regular morons and I cant believe they do actual useful work.
But Lynn et Verhanen's table still stands and seems to be correct and predictive. No one really has an explanation why. Think and you may come up with something.
Samuel Huntington in his book The Clash of Civilizations classified Mexico as part of Latin Civilization, but also called it a border state torn between two regions.
wiki
Border state between what? The USA in the north, Guatemala in the South?
I think Mexico has nothing Indian, it is fully European in its language, civilization, customs. It has some 50% indian genes in the maternal side mostly.
He considered it a border state between Latin and Western civilization.
Latin civilization is fully Western.
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