The largest development project in Egypt is the Toshka Depression aimed at settling millions of Egyptians in a desert area. This is an Egyptian unilateral project, started in 1997, requires 5 Bm3 of water annually. Egypt has been transferring water from lake Nasser to the Toshka depression area through a spillway and a huge pumping station. (The pic taken by a NASA astronaut shows the artificial lake and many circles of center pivot irrigation systems. The lake has been contracting because of the draught in Central Africa). Toshka depends on continuous withdrawal of Nile waters which may be interpreted by upriver Sudan and Ethiopia as against their interest. Should one day decide to claim this resource by force, the giant pumping station is indefensible and easily subject to sabotage. But the whole 100 million strong Egypt lives under the (almost physical) shade of the mass of water retained by Lake Nasser; they, like everybody else, have learned to live under the shade of sudden death.
Things are changing. Sudan, Ethiopia and the equatorial riparians are building up their bargaining power and are determined to develop their water resources. They have a new external partner, China, which is keen to assist them in those ventures. Unilateral trends upstream are becoming more visible, such as the construction of the Merowe dam (Sudan), the Tekezze dam (Ethiopia) and the Bujagali dam (Uganda). Moreover, it is not only the upstream riparians who are going ahead with unilateral projects but Egypt too, as mentioned above.
This is a zero sum game, when one wins, the others must lose. The slow motion dynamics of the geopolitical situation leads to a confrontation.
7 comments:
1. You probably already know this, but the entire Toshka project is visible on Google Maps.
2. I hate the popup commenting system you have chosen for this blog.
Yes, Toshka is very big. They are losing a lot of water by evaporation.
I would assume that the Egyptians themselves dreamed this up. Had the Egyptians brought in consultants they could have been informed of better uses for their water.
Speaking as a consultant, I can assure you consultants are hired hands that will design anything the client desires and pays for. Please dont blame the engineers and the workers. Blame the politicians who take the decisions. In case of Egypt, the decisions are in hands of generals. Nasser, Sadat, Mubarak are all generals.
You agree with me. I was saying that the national leadership themselves dreamt this up on the assumption that if one big lake is good, then two must be better. The entire project may have been designed internally as well.
An outside consultant may be willing to design anything the customer wants, but the consultant may also offer advice before the customer finishes the deal. In fact, the professional water managers that work for the Egyptian state should have offered some advice to the national leaders as to what would improve Egyptian agriculture.
Based on my idle wikisurfing I would recommend Egypt adopt dryland farming, maybe they already have.
Does Egypt charge farmers for their use of water, or does each farmer take as much as he wants from Lake Nasser?
Egypt, like all Third World countries, does not measure the water delivered but collects a very small yearly charge for irrigation water.
as an israeli engenier ,i know that you wish that project to fail.but inspite of your wishes this project will succeed.
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