## Thursday, March 25, 2010

### Breaking the Probability Symmetry

Today my wife decreted a meatless day. Famelic, I had to buy a poppy seed strudel, which I devored. I found myself half dreaming about probabilities, about how I could win on the roulette wheel or the stock exchange. Both are probabilistic and symmetric, so the chances of winning are 50-50 minus expenses. Probabilities formed in my mind a stable structure like a human pyramid on the beach. To win, I had to break the Gaussian symmetry of this structure, which I could do by throwing balls of assymetry against the pyramid, or generating distabilizing winds of improbability, which were different representations of the same thing.

Now, how to create these quant objects? I needed condensates or waves of wildly improbable events that would distort the probability field around them, and break down the Gaussian structure and cause outcomes that I could catch and deposit in my bank account. I was trying to imagine how would look a concentrated, dense improbable-event-ball, when my daughter broke into my consciousness - she wanted the key of my car.

Females have a way of cutting down the flight of human imagination. They are pedestrians, stuck in the mud, holding down my spirit. And they are trying to starve me!

Anonymous said...

My comment went down the memory hole (or you have turned on filtering). Suggest that you distort the probability field as follows: put poison in random bottles of Tylenol, short the stock. Gaussian symmetry is for the little people , like paying taxes. Real men tilt the playing filed in their favor - why gamble when you can play a sure thing?

K

J said...

Anonymous said...

That is because Koko is an honest girl. All the big \$ is made by ganefs.

K

doggytwit said...

"... trying to starve me!"
Those who steal an old man's food do him a favor. — Spanish proverb
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many men as possible. — Bernard Baruch
Beware of geeks bearing formulas. — Warren Buffett
Don't try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It can't be done except by liars. — Bernard Baruch

J said...

I was wondering if tilting the roulette table could be considered as hitting it with an improbability quanta. The answer is no, because we are not modifying the Gaussian distribution but only creating a new equilibrium. Improbability waves are traversing the universe like vibrations in a spider's web. If I could catch and direct them, then I should have a chance to make money on the NASDAQ, I mean more money than I am doing. I am aware that this line of thinking is non-conventional, but conventional reasoning produces zero or negative alpha. I want to be like the legendary businessman who was asked how he made his millions. "I succeeded because I am not greedy like the others and aimed at only 1% profit". He explained: "I buy at 1 dollar and sell for 2 dollars. 1% is enough for me." I also want to be such a 1% man.

Anonymous said...

This reminds me of the old joke about the store keeper who had a big sign out front - "We sell below cost!" One day a customer asked him how this was possible - if you sell below cost you'll surely go broke in the long run. The storekeeper replied, "That's easy - we BUY below cost."

K

Anonymous said...

Get rich quick fantasies are a sure sign that unconsciously,you are getting ready to take a rash gamble with your money.

Beware, and try to control yourself!

Anon.

J said...

Yes, my mind is feverishly searching for the most improbable situation where the probabilities would be tilted in my favour.

I could formulate it in the language of statistics, calculating probabilities, or I could just say am looking for a "miracle".

Anonymous said...

Koko say: "Let me do the thinking, you just pay the bills".

Anon.

J said...

I am tempted to accept Koko's offer. I am squeezing my mind dry, no more juice is coming fore, Koko may offer a new perspective.