Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Demographic Victory


Yasser Arafat predicted that the Palestinian victory will come from the "kuss" (vagina) of the Palestinian woman. Not that he was personally interested: the famous freedom fighter was more into dressing up in drag and playing jumping tiger with his bodyguards. He was also wrong. Israeli Arab births have stabilized around 40,000 a year, while Jewish births are rising consistently. Arab populations have modernized and entered the demographic transition and are not growing anymore, while Israeli Jews are becoming more traditional and family oriented. We are winning this battle too.

31 comments:

Anonymous said...

Israeli Arab births

"Israeli Arab"?

Is not Israel "ethnostate"?

;0

Anonymous said...

You will both be overwhelmed by the Africans coming in.

Anon.

Genius said...

Not that he was personally interested: the famous freedom fighter was more into dressing up in drag and playing jumping tiger with his bodyguards.

I thought he got AIDS from one of the boys he raped!

IHTG said...

The link is broken.

Anonymous said...

What percentage of the "more traditional" Israelis are haredi who refuse to serve in the IDF and who are an overall drag on the Israeli economy (studying in the Yeshiva increases the quantum of mitzvot in the world but that's about all it increases)? In what sense are haredi "traditional" Israelis? I think of "traditional" Israelis as being secular Zionists and haredis are neither. The usual rule in life is "be careful what you ask for, because you just might get it."

K

J said...

The link has been corrected.

Israeli Haredi Jews are exactly what our grandparents strived to be: full time scholars. Each generation, part of their children leave the community and become regular secular Israeli Jews. Many well known journalists and writers as well as businessmen and officers were educated in a yeshive. In fact, it is quite possible that each haredi family produces a larger number of secular adults than a typical secular family with two children and a dog.

Regarding the economical aspect, Israel is a wealthy country, and we can easily maintain (in poverty) a large propulation of students and scholars.

And religion is not something permanent. You could not find a more religious population than Poland's Jews a hundred years ago. Yet by 1930 ortodoxy was in retreat, and those transplanted to America lost completely their haredi character. It can happen very fast. (I dont wish that).

I am not haredi but I consider them close relatives.

Anonymous said...

I agree with you in part (I've made the same arguments myself in the past). If you scratch the most secular Jew around, you don't have to go very far back to find grandpa with a beard and payas - 2 generations, 3, maybe 4 at the most.

BUT, I wonder if the dynamic has changed? As you say, the Jews of Poland, up until say WWI, were frum almost without exception and this was probably true for the previous 500 years at least. The Reform movement of German made almost no inroads in Poland and there were almost no Jews who lived outside the structure of the Jewish community, where there was relentless pressure to conform to Orthodox norms. I think a society can reach a tipping point where the haredi society IS the "regular" society. I'm not sure what the % of defections among the frum is now but I'll bet you a Pick salami that it is decreasing with each generation. In say 1930 it was almost expected that the next generation would not be frum - hats and beards were associated with old men. "Modern" Jewish youth was beardless and bare headed. Today that expectation is gone.

K

Anonymous said...

BTW, regarding the photo of Arafat, the ugliness of the soul does not always reflect itself in the body (Stalin was a rather handsome man), but often it does. Not only is Arafat's face bestial and his eyes snakelike but his hands look like the claws of an animal. I can't imagine a more stark embodiment of evil in human form.

K

K

Genius said...

In what sense are haredi "traditional" Israelis? I think of "traditional" Israelis as being secular Zionists and haredis are neither.

In no meaningful sense are Haredim "traditional." When people say traditional in this context they don't mean traditional labor Zionists, they mean traditional Jews who would not consider themselves religious but whose lives are imbued with Judaism and who are still very, very Jewish. The classic image of a traditional Israeli is that he'll go on shabbat morning to the synagogue, but on shabbat afternoon he'll drive to a soccer game (or turn on the television to watch one).

Haredi Judaism is a modern invention, a response to the modern phenomena of Jewish legal emancipation and haskalah (the Jewish enlightenment). For thousands of years of Jewish history, there was NO tradition of Jews not working for a living. There was NO strict separation of men and women in all walks of life. There was NO fear and hatred of the outside world like you see with Haredim today. The Haredim in all their anti-modernity are in some ways the most modern type of Jews.

Genius said...

Israeli Haredi Jews are exactly what our grandparents strived to be: full time scholars.

I don't know of anybody whose grandparents strived to be full time scholars. My grandparents were all Reform Jews, but even the Orthodox Jews of their generation believed that a Jew should study and follow the laws while also being a full human being, which means having a career and earning enough to support a (large) family.

In Europe, the governments were not subsidizing the yeshiva lifestyle for the millions and millions of Jews there. It's the same in America, where Haredim have jobs and many of them are quite wealthy from diamonds, cameras/electronics, etc. Only in Israel has the government normalized the weird Haredi form of Judaism that's unnatural and un-Jewish.

In fact, it is quite possible that each haredi family produces a larger number of secular adults than a typical secular family with two children and a dog.

Very interesting point - I never thought of this. But I'd say the typical secular family has one child and two dogs.

Genius said...

the Jews of Poland, up until say WWI, were frum almost without exception and this was probably true for the previous 500 years at least.

If by "frum" you just mean someone who's part of the Jewish community and observes the commandments, sure - the vast majority of eastern Europe's Jews then were frum. But now "frum" has what I think is a narrower meaning. When I hear people using it, they don't just mean someone who keeps the commandments. They mean someone who keeps stringencies, who dresses a special way and who insulates himself from the world to a degree larger than what's necessary.

Anonymous said...

Regarding the latter comment, I'm not sure that I understand the distinction between at least the more learned and religious Jews of E. Europe and what you say haredim do now (other than not working). In general the Jews of E. Europe were ALL "dressed a special way" and insulated from the [goyish] world. If you could, for example, dig up say Isaac Bashevis Singer's rebbe father and transport him from his bes-din in Warsaw to Mea Shearim, I think he would feel completely at home and find nothing out of the ordinary (for him). { If you brought him to the beach at Eilat, he would faint.}

As you say though, the # of Jews who could afford to be full time learners was quite limited (and those that chose that lifestyle often existed on the edge of starvation where they ate only out of charity. Not modern welfare state charity but the bare minimum needed not to starve. The other Jews were too busy trying to make a living to spend all day davening and were not learned enough to worry about the fine points of stringencies.


The explosion of full time professional Haredim (who BTW in the US often also live off the dole) is directly in proportion to the willingness of others to support their lifestyle in reasonable comfort. If davening all day meant living on the edge of starvation, then haredim would be having a lot fewer kids and a lot fewer people would choose that lifestyle. Haredi Judaism is "weird" and "un-Jewish" only in that there was never enough money to support masses of Jews in such a non-productive way before - what was once the province of a small minority is now a mass lifestyle.

There is no question that Orthodoxy took a turn toward reactionism when they were prodded by those who wanted to toss the commandments as they had always been understood into the trash. The Chatam Sofer said "everything new is forbidden" but only in response to the Jews of Vienna who wanted to have a cantata for a mixed choir performed in their schul. I can't really blame him for pushing back on this.

K
K

K

J said...

I stand by my comment that our grandparents in Eastern Europe worked because the alternative was physical starvation, but their dream was to spend the day debating the fine points of the Talmud. They had enormous respect for scholars and they made great sacrifices to sent their children to learn. The only difference I see is the wealth of the community: Jews in Eastern Europe were wretchedly poor, while today's communities are rich and can easily support half of more of the community as house scholars. Once children had to work from age ten, nowadays we support them till thirty... Our modern society is incredibly rich, we can and should maintain the Haredi people. Should we not be able to continue doing so, they will work by sheer necessity. And reality is that most do work, they cannot declare it because they would lose the subsidies and forced into military service.

Genius said...

Regarding the latter comment, I'm not sure that I understand the distinction between at least the more learned and religious Jews of E. Europe and what you say haredim do now (other than not working).

That may be a good way to put it - Haredim are representative not of eastern European Jewry but of eastern European Jewry's most learned and religious.

In general the Jews of E. Europe were ALL "dressed a special way" and insulated from the [goyish] world.

This isn't true - it's a romantic notion that comes from Yiddish stories written in the 20th century. The uniform of Hassidim comes from what Polish noblemen wore just a few hundred years ago - it's not traditional in the context of a tradition that stretches back thousands of years. The general Haredi practice of dressing in the dark hats and suits - and specifically of dressing in a dapper way - is also new. Most Jews in eastern Europe wore clothes that were functional and modest, just like most people everywhere. They were not wearing those black suits and those hats on a daily basis.

Insulation from Christian society was present at some level but it would have been totally unworkable and even unthinkable for Jews in eastern Europe to separate themselves from Christians even in the way that they separate themselves from fellow Jews today.

If you could, for example, dig up say Isaac Bashevis Singer's rebbe father and transport him from his bes-din in Warsaw to Mea Shearim, I think he would feel completely at home and find nothing out of the ordinary (for him). { If you brought him to the beach at Eilat, he would faint.}

Any normal person would faint at the beach in Eilat. I can't really say anything specifically about Singer's father, but someone from that generation would find it very difficult to recognize the lifestyle in Mea Shearim today. The way people dress would be totally alien. The fanatic adherence to hechshers for everything - even for food - would be totally alien. The unnatural separation of men and women would be totally alien. Even someone from 60 years ago would have difficulty recognizing what's going on in Mea Shearim today.

The explosion of full time professional Haredim (who BTW in the US often also live off the dole) is directly in proportion to the willingness of others to support their lifestyle in reasonable comfort.

That's an important factor, but they made a decision several generations ago to become like they are now. It was a decision to disengage with the world and from the elements in the Jewish tradition that mandated engagement with the world (eg, the rabbinic requirement for a man to earn a living and support his family, like the rabbis from the Mishnaic period until recently). In part it was a reaction to the Holocaust

Genius said...

That may be a good way to put it - Haredim are representative not of eastern European Jewry but of eastern European Jewry's most learned and religious.

In general the Jews of E. Europe were ALL "dressed a special way" and insulated from the [goyish] world.

This isn't true - it's a romantic notion that comes from Yiddish stories written in the 20th century. The uniform of Hassidim comes from what Polish noblemen wore just a few hundred years ago - it's not traditional in the context of a tradition that stretches back thousands of years. The general Haredi practice of dressing in the dark hats and suits - and specifically of dressing in a dapper way - is also new. Most Jews in eastern Europe wore clothes that were functional and modest, just like most people everywhere. They were not wearing those black suits and those hats on a daily basis.

Insulation from Christian society was present at some level but it would have been totally unworkable and even unthinkable for Jews in eastern Europe to separate themselves from Christians even in the way that they separate themselves from fellow Jews today.

If you could, for example, dig up say Isaac Bashevis Singer's rebbe father and transport him from his bes-din in Warsaw to Mea Shearim, I think he would feel completely at home and find nothing out of the ordinary (for him). { If you brought him to the beach at Eilat, he would faint.}

Any normal person would faint at the beach in Eilat. I can't really say anything specifically about Singer's father, but someone from that generation would find it very difficult to recognize the lifestyle in Mea Shearim today. The way people dress would be totally alien. The fanatic adherence to hechshers for everything - even for food - would be totally alien. The unnatural separation of men and women would be totally alien. Even someone from 60 years ago would have difficulty recognizing what's going on in Mea Shearim today.

The explosion of full time professional Haredim (who BTW in the US often also live off the dole) is directly in proportion to the willingness of others to support their lifestyle in reasonable comfort.

That's an important factor, but they made a decision several generations ago to become like they are now. It was a decision to disengage with the world and from the elements in the Jewish tradition that mandated engagement with the world (eg, the rabbinic requirement for a man to earn a living and support his family, like the rabbis from the Mishnaic period until recently). In part it was a reaction to the Holocaust.

Genius said...

That may be a good way to put it - Haredim are representative not of eastern European Jewry but of eastern European Jewry's most learned and religious.

In general the Jews of E. Europe were ALL "dressed a special way" and insulated from the [goyish] world.

This isn't true - it's a romantic notion that comes from Yiddish stories written in the 20th century. The uniform of Hassidim comes from what Polish noblemen wore just a few hundred years ago - it's not traditional in the context of a tradition that stretches back thousands of years. The general Haredi practice of dressing in the dark hats and suits - and specifically of dressing in a dapper way - is also new. Most Jews in eastern Europe wore clothes that were functional and modest, just like most people everywhere. They were not wearing those black suits and those hats on a daily basis.

Insulation from Christian society was present at some level but it would have been totally unworkable and even unthinkable for Jews in eastern Europe to separate themselves from Christians even in the way that they separate themselves from fellow Jews today.

If you could, for example, dig up say Isaac Bashevis Singer's rebbe father and transport him from his bes-din in Warsaw to Mea Shearim, I think he would feel completely at home and find nothing out of the ordinary (for him). { If you brought him to the beach at Eilat, he would faint.}

Any normal person would faint at the beach in Eilat. I can't really say anything specifically about Singer's father, but someone from that generation would find it very difficult to recognize the lifestyle in Mea Shearim today. The way people dress would be totally alien. The fanatic adherence to hechshers for everything - even for food - would be totally alien. The unnatural separation of men and women would be totally alien. Even someone from 60 years ago would have difficulty recognizing what's going on in Mea Shearim today.

The explosion of full time professional Haredim (who BTW in the US often also live off the dole) is directly in proportion to the willingness of others to support their lifestyle in reasonable comfort.

That's an important factor, but they made a decision several generations ago to become like they are now. It was a decision to disengage with the world and from the elements in the Jewish tradition that mandated engagement with the world (eg, the rabbinic requirement for a man to earn a living and support his family, like the rabbis from the Mishnaic period until recently). In part it was a reaction to the Holocaust.

Genius said...

That may be a good way to put it - Haredim are representative not of eastern European Jewry but of eastern European Jewry's most learned and religious.

In general the Jews of E. Europe were ALL "dressed a special way" and insulated from the [goyish] world.

This isn't true - it's a romantic notion that comes from Yiddish stories written in the 20th century. The uniform of Hassidim comes from what Polish noblemen wore just a few hundred years ago - it's not traditional in the context of a tradition that stretches back thousands of years. The general Haredi practice of dressing in the dark hats and suits - and specifically of dressing in a dapper way - is also new. Most Jews in eastern Europe wore clothes that were functional and modest, just like most people everywhere. They were not wearing those black suits and those hats on a daily basis.

Insulation from Christian society was present at some level but it would have been totally unworkable and even unthinkable for Jews in eastern Europe to separate themselves from Christians even in the way that they separate themselves from fellow Jews today.

If you could, for example, dig up say Isaac Bashevis Singer's rebbe father and transport him from his bes-din in Warsaw to Mea Shearim, I think he would feel completely at home and find nothing out of the ordinary (for him). { If you brought him to the beach at Eilat, he would faint.}

Any normal person would faint at the beach in Eilat. I can't really say anything specifically about Singer's father, but someone from that generation would find it very difficult to recognize the lifestyle in Mea Shearim today. The way people dress would be totally alien. The fanatic adherence to hechshers for everything - even for food - would be totally alien. The unnatural separation of men and women would be totally alien. Even someone from 60 years ago would have difficulty recognizing what's going on in Mea Shearim today.

Anonymous said...

Ooops, sorry for the multiple posting - Google was giving me a strange error message. Delete this one and the previous three comments.

Genius said...

If davening all day meant living on the edge of starvation, then haredim would be having a lot fewer kids and a lot fewer people would choose that lifestyle. Haredi Judaism is "weird" and "un-Jewish" only in that there was never enough money to support masses of Jews in such a non-productive way before - what was once the province of a small minority is now a mass lifestyle.

It's "un-Jewish" in that it was never considered a Jewish value until the 20th century.

There is no question that Orthodoxy took a turn toward reactionism when they were prodded by those who wanted to toss the commandments as they had always been understood into the trash. The Chatam Sofer said "everything new is forbidden" but only in response to the Jews of Vienna who wanted to have a cantata for a mixed choir performed in their schul. I can't really blame him for pushing back on this.

I guess you're right that it's hard to blame him, given what was going on around him in the world at that time. But "everything new is forbidden by the Torah" is a stupid and foolish statement of a vain man who must have been talking about a different Torah, since the one I've read makes no mention of banning innovations.

Genius said...

I stand by my comment that our grandparents in Eastern Europe worked because the alternative was physical starvation, but their dream was to spend the day debating the fine points of the Talmud. They had enormous respect for scholars and they made great sacrifices to sent their children to learn. The only difference I see is the wealth of the community: Jews in Eastern Europe were wretchedly poor, while today's communities are rich and can easily support half of more of the community as house scholars. Once children had to work from age ten, nowadays we support them till thirty...

The first statement does not follow from the second. Of course they wanted a strong education for their children and had respect for those among them whose learning was at a high enough level that full-time learning was considered. But isolation from the world through learning has only come to be respected in the past century.

Our modern society is incredibly rich, we can and should maintain the Haredi people. Should we not be able to continue doing so, they will work by sheer necessity. And reality is that most do work, they cannot declare it because they would lose the subsidies and forced into military service.

Ok, so the majority of Haredi families do have income from working (frequently it's the mother who works to support the family while the father learns in kollel). Why then should they also get charity as if they're not working? Let them continue working, but legally, above board; let them be a part of the same tax scheme as everybody else; let private charities that already exist to support these arrangements be further developed to allow part-time and full-time learning for those whose learning is contributing something. You make the elements of a strong case to support the Haredim on an individual and voluntary basis - I don't see why the state's involvement is necessary here.

Anonymous said...

Do Israeli Arabs ever emigrate?

It seems to me that there would be a lot of opportunities for them in the Gulf States.

J said...

(1) Regarding Palestinian emigration, they do move to better places than Israel. The Gulf and other Arab countries are very unfriendly to Palestinians (guess why?) and for example, Lebanon is just now passing legislation to grant them work permits. When Saddam Hussein invaded Kuweit, Palestinians welcome him. Aftr Saddam's defeat, the Palis were expulsed from Kuwait forever. So they emigrate when the urge comes to them to countries like the USA and Brasil. But life in Israel is good for them, they are protected and pampered, like AfroAmericans in the USA.

(2) Regarding Haredis vs traditional Polish Jews, there is no doubt that contemporary Israeli Haredis are a new thing. Of course times change. The Holocaust made them more fanatic and extreme, since they attribute it to divine punishment. But we Jews always strived to live a life of scholars.

Anonymous said...

Regarding "everything new is forbidden" not being in the Torah, Sofer seized upon the concept of Yoshon - that new grain is forbidden before Passover. (BTW, speaking of new stringencies, in E. Europe the rabbis more or less ignored Yoshon, now there is a whole little industry to make sure that the flour is Yoshon. One of the arguments that frume yidn make for all these nonsensical heckshers is that it provides parnassa for frume yidn - this sounds pretty cynical to me.) Admittedly this is a stretch but he at least claimed to find support for his ideas in the Torah. Jews are not Amish - he did not say that cars or electricity are forbidden, just innovation in religious practice, which I think makes some sense.

K

Anonymous said...

BTW, what is very interesting is that immediately following the Holocaust, it was not clear that the whole Hasid business was a viable enterprise. The Lubavitcher rebbe had moved to Brooklyn and found work as an electrician. A lot of the Hasidim had given up their distinctive dress and were wearing more or less normal clothes. But then things somehow gelled again and they were able to turn to their current trajectory and gain momentum.

K

J said...

Yes, it has gained momentum.

In Israel 1950 Ben Gurion allowed some privileges to the few dozen yeshive bochers because it seemed such a pityful, hopeless endeavour.

Anonymous said...

The Hasids (especially the Lubavitch) ascribe this revival to miraculous divine intervention. I ascribe more mundane causes - first, as I said before because of economic support - as J said, Jews always aspired to sit and learn in the study house as an occupation but could not afford it. 2nd because of the natural attraction of cults. Due to the nature of our ape programming many humans aspire to be led by a Great Leader, Rebbe, etc. just as gorillas must have their silverback. They especially love to follow leaders who promise them redemption not only in this life but in the next - Jesus, Joseph Smith, Mohammed, Jim Jones, Shabbatai Zvi, etc. Such leaders often attract millions of followers within a short period. The Hasidic Rebbes and their followers fit within this tradition.

K

Anonymous said...

Perhaps you are describing the Obama phenomenon here, which, along with the Voodoo overtones, is a typical cult heading full speed over the cliff.

Anon.

Anonymous said...

"natural attraction of cults. Due to the nature of our ape programming many humans aspire to be led by a Great Leader, Rebbe, etc."

I think that this nails it, and I'm definitely not thrilled to see an increasing proportion of Jews fall under the rebbes' sway. If haredim and hasidim are the future center of gravity of the Jewish people, I would prefer that my family assimilate away from Judaism completely.

Anonymous said...

Some/many of the Lubavitch believe that the Rebbe was/is the Moschiach and that he will arise from the dead (or is not dead in the first place) and reveal himself as Moschiah, and they pray to him as if he were a god. A lot of echoes of Christianity (with the Rebbe playing the role of Jesus). The irony is completely lost on them, which shows how un-Jewish they are - if there's one thing that real Jews understand, it's irony.


K

Genius said...

A lot of echoes of Christianity (with the Rebbe playing the role of Jesus).

It's much more like Shia Islam than Christianity.

Anonymous said...

With the Rebbe playing the role of the Hidden Imam. OK, I'll buy that. But whatever it is, it isn't Judaism. This is the problem faced by all charismatic cults - what do you do when the leader dies and there's no replacement? Or when the appointed time of redemption comes and there's no redemption? It's a tribute to the human powers of rationalization that we can come up with all sorts of cockamamie theories on how the Rebbe/ Imam is just "hiding" and will soon re-appear - it's sort of like the Monty Python routine about the dead parrot.

K

K