Ambush

The truth of a media event. See the clip. Ambush

The Ponivezher Speaks

Berel Wein relates an anecdote about Rabbi Yosef Shlomo Kahaneman, the Ponivezher Rav, when he visited Miami in the sixties. At the meeting he arose and said to young couples attending:

My beloved children. There are the souls of a million and a half Jewish children, under the age of 12, who were murdered in the Holocaust floating in the air above us. Our task is to give those souls bodies to live within. You are the only ones that can provide those bodies.

New Week

Last week was unproductive, but it is over and I am starting a new week. Koor is selling Makhteshim to the Chinese. I saw it coming since I was in Ecuador: Makhteshim was being out-competed by cheaper Chinese products. So the time has come to move production to China and focus on marketing and research. Makhteshim has been tortured to death by the Ministry of Environment and the "Green" activists, that now will have to search for another enemy. Currently, about 20% of Makhteshim's production cost is environmentally dictated. Apparently the Chinese are ready to pay a good premium on TASE price. On the good news, I already sold most of my holdings.

I am definitely for the Chinese. They are making all the world wealthier. For example, I have an IBM laptop that I bought six or seven years ago for about 3,000 dollars. A better one if now offered by Lenovo for 500 dollars. Excellent Chinese shirts are sold for 5 dollars. I bought Chinese frozen fish for a quarter of the Argentine fish (but I didnt like it).

What is my agenda for this coming week? The Israeli gas and oil sector has fever and I am not in it. I am sleeping too well, I should take more risks.

Update: The agreement with the Chinese says that they will keep the factories in Israel till 2017. In other words, they are emptying the company and moving the operation to China. Sad. I did once some work related to Makhteshim and it was a good company. It had grown to be the largest of the world in generic pesticides. We are losing it.

Turkish Delights

Turkey has rebuilt itself and is seeking hegemony in its former empire that ranged from Syria to Persia. These days it faces a decision on President Bush's NATO missile shield, which has been portrayed as a safeguard against a possible ballistic missile strike from Iran. Turkey worries that supporting the shield could damage relations with its neighbors. So Turkey is defining the NATO radar system as a defense against ... Israel. Very bad.

Roots

A pic on the wall of the Mossad head's office. It was taken by Nazi soldiers and shows his grandfather humiliated minutes before being killed.

Strange Silence

Israeli media has stopped debating Iran's nuclear bomb and Turkey's turn against the West. This is rather strange, when only a few weeks ago we were in imminent danger of being incinerated by a nuclear tipped Iranian long range missile. Some people were talking about the end of the Zionist enterprise. Today, the country is flooded with tourists and the stock exchange is higher than ever. What happened?

Apparently Obama is taking seriously the Iranian military effort in Natanz and enforcing a serious embargo. There are also indications that the uranium enrichment project is not advancing and few of the 30,000 Iranian built centrifuges are working. After all Iran has no industrial experience and even technologies developed seventy years ago - like gas centrifuges - are still a challenge for it. They will solve it, but not tomorrow.

Turkey has freezed its military cooperation with Israel and changed sides, allying itself with Iran and Syria. On Nov. 19 it will have to decide if accepts the installation of NATO's radar stations in its territory. The early alert system is part of the missile shield NATO is building to protect Europe. The Turkish link is obviously to protect Europe from an attack from Iran. But Erdogan has declared that Iran is a friend and not a potential enemy.

I conclude that Dan Meridor's position that Iran is not only a menace to Israel but the entire world, and therefore fighting Iran is not an Israeli problem, is slowly sinking in. The best we can say now is nothing.

Friday Night Quiz

Fact: All imaginable universes exist somewhere.

Question: How do I get where Estelle is?

Answer: Vodka. That is the vehicle and the fuel.

The Swedish Bikini Team

Following Steve Sailer's accusations that La Migra (the American Immigration Agency) is racist and discriminates in favor of blonde border infiltrators, an electric border fence has been erected with the help of East German specialists. Thus, the Swedish Bikini Team (pic) had to change its plans and now intends to infiltrate Israel. The subversive recycled toilet paper HaAretz reports today Prime Minister Netaniyahu's proposal to pay African countries to accept Israel's illegal immigrants who cannot be sent back to their own hellholes (that would trigger another UN condemnation of anti-human Zionist policies). If his proposal is rejected, we may be stuck with the Swedes (and the Sudanese) for a while.

Orckit Starting to Move

Technoserv, the largest Russian company dedicated to IT-services announced that it has selected Orckit-Corrigent's (Nasdaq:ORCT) CM-4000 Carrier Ethernet Transport switches to enhance its networking portfolio, allowing Technoserv to better meet the growing demand for telecommunication services in Russia and CIS.



In addition, Orckit is well positioned to enter the Indian telecommunication market.No, I dont mean the smoke signalling system of the plain Indians. Orckit jumped 7% today on the Nasdaq. I am still losing on it but hoping to recoup soon.

Criminal Engineers

Two 16 y.o. boys stole the keys of the family car and were killed in an accident. They had no driving licences and probably were on drugs or drunk. In Israel, every road (or work) accident that ends in death is automatically investigated by the criminal police. In this case, the police has focused on the Municipality of Rishon LeZion (south of Tel Aviv) and interrogated the engineers who planned the iron bars protecting the bus station (which was demolished, see pic). The detectives also demanded the street's engineering drawings.

As a consulting engineer working for municipalities and friend of city engineers, I find this development quite worrying. In the collapse of the bridge (in the Maccabiada), the engineer who did the calculations went to jail (one year, I think) although the numbers were correct. Somebody had to pay and since he had absolutely nothing to do with the accident, he didnt ran away and was cought. In the case of the building that collapsed in Jerusalem, the engineer who invented the building method (using steel wire mesh) was condemned. The technique is innovative and ingenious, it was applied successfully by many designs and of course the man had nothing to do with that
specific building.

Now the detectives are focusing on who designed and who authorized the iron barrier that "caused" the accident. Israel is full of identic structures designed to protect the people waiting for the bus against crazed Arab suicide terrorists. It started with Arabs stealing heavy trucks and tractors, and crashing them against the crowd - generally young soldiers - standing in the bus stop. Volunteer organizations started to erect these barriers. The American consulate in Tel Aviv is surrounded by similar steel barriers.

I can feel in my guts the anguish of the engineers who designed the barrier and the department manager who authorized its construction. I have designed fire protection systems (with water sprinklers) and hundreds of street manholes (someone can easily fall into one of them!). Should I be worried? Should I be very worried?

The Future as seen from Israel

America is tiring of foreign interventions and will close down bases all over the world. Its closest ally, Great Britain, is reducing its military forces. Without a world sheriff, there will be more wars. In fact, the whole world will enter a period of permanent war. A dangerous, violent, lawless place. In the 20th Century, America saved the world - it put an end to WWI and WWII and the Soviet postwar aggression. Without America, all the countries will be forced to rearm and Israel's weapons industry will prosper. That is not the future we want, but the one we may have to live in.

The Katza

Yesterday my high school daughter went to school ("Katza") at 700 and returned at 1730 (ten classes of 45 min.) and then went to night school for French. And homework. They have exams almost every week. She says that the students's school radio plays Beethoven. She is against the elitist Ashkenazi clique programming it. She has the right populist instincts to succeed in politics.

In the Colegio Nacional No.3 Mariano Moreno in Buenos Aires, we learned from 0800 till 1200. Homework was unknown. Exams were at the end of the year. I spent the afternoons in the Velez Sarsfield club swimming and in public libraries. There were many communist and anarchist libraries in those times in Buenos Aires, but I most liked the Biblioteca Lincoln of the US Embassy and the Circulo Militar's reading room with dark wood, leather chairs and green lights.

Argentine past and future President, Dead at 60

Nestor Kirchner, former President, husband of current President and sure candidate to replace her, had a heart attack and died. He was 60. He did not expect it.

Seventh Bad Year

Israel is entering the rainy season and - no rain. The experts say that the winter will be dry. It will be our seventh year of drought. No one dares to say out loudly that the climate has changed for good. Or for bad. We in Israel are drinking desalted sea water and growing crops with recycled wastewater. We take care of the Palestinians, but what the other neighbors will do I dont know. Pic: Hony Ha-Me-Agel, a gold medal with the Biblical saint who drew a circle in the ground and fasted in it till the rain was forced to fall.

Hungarian Jews Will Never Learn

Der Spiegel German magazine published an article saying that Hungary is the center of European antisemitism. The note was illustrated with a pic (above) of the Garda's swearing-in ceremony. Nowadays, the Germans are our protectors in Europe. Remarkable, but my point is other.

Szombat ("Saturday"), a Jewish community magazine, rises to the defense of the honor of the Hungarian fatherland and condemns Der Spiegel for its "unidimensional" slander. By the God of my Fathers! Hungarian Jews have learned nothing, they are the same spineless uber-patriots they always have been and will justify and defend their sworn enemies to death. Their own death. Like they did in 1944.

Just now I am not proud of being a Hungarian Jew.

Paul The Octopus Found Dead

Paul correctly predicted all eight matches leading to Spain's victory. A perfect score in futball. Now that he is dead we shall never know if he had predictive powers in the stock exchange, like our Koko.

Two Hundred Years in Russia: The End

In the 19th Century, most Jews lived in Russia and even after WWII there were more than a million. In the 2002 census there were only 233,000 Jews left, most of them in Moscow and S. Petersburg. The majority only produce one or two children and assimilation is rampant - up to 90 percent of "Jewish" children in the former Soviet Union are the offspring of mixed marriages. As older Jews die, and fewer Russian Jewish babies are born, the Jewish population in the former Soviet Union is beginning to wither away.

Europe, the cradle of the large Ashkenazi ethnia, is mostly Judenfrei. One can travel from Greece to Spain without meeting a Jew. The only community with any vitality left in it (ie it is not dying out) lives in Antwerpen centred on the diamond trade. I think American Jews should be asking what is happening and what are their own perspectives. The late Nobel Prize Solzhenytsin wrote a tremendous book about the historical Jewish control of Russia, but current antisemites have difficulties to identify any living Russian Jew to be against and attack. In Hungary, the strong Jobbik Nazi Party has been forced to invent Jews or to accuse non Jewish politicians of having a grand daddy with Jewish sounding name or just being under the influence of etheric Jewish spirits.

In America, antisemites are writing books about Jewish domination of elite universities at a time when there are pitifully few Jewish students coming in. Where are the masses of Jewish students? (pic: from CUNY's website, under "Students". It may not reflect the student body, but not even one Jewish looking student?).Is it conceivable that America's Jews are also slowly withering away?

Childlessness Predictor

The Inductivist thought out a nice predictor of childlessness. Quote:

Long story short: being an educated liberal atheist is like having a disease where your testicles rot and fall off.

Truer words never blogged.

Why La Migra is Closing its Eyes?

Steve Sailer is pondering in his blog a solution to the difficult problem of keeping out of his country those undesirable Swedish legal immigrants.

"Fortunately, the problem does not arise", the Sage writes.

James Fulton of VDare differs with Steve and harshly attacks American Immigration Authorities for their lassitude and failure to deal with the Swedish Bikini Team demographic time bomb (see pic). Fulton writes clearly and intelligently, and following his arguments one reaches the conclusion that the best policy is to let the problem to solve itself, and the worse, by far, to let the Government - any goverment - to take an interest and do anything. That is my opinion too.

Fatal Swim in Warm Sea

U.S. national swimming team member Fran Crippen died during a race in the United Arab Emirates on Saturday. The 26-year-old swimmer from suburban Philadelphia was competing in the FINA Open Water 10-kilometer World Cup in Fujairah, south of Dubai, but failed to finish and was found in the water two hours later, according to Swimming World. The magazine said the water temperature was in the mid- to high 80s, and several swimmers were treated for heat exhaustion after the race.

He was a professional open water swimmer, he was swimming in the open sea in Dubai, and it is late autumn. He drowned of exhaustion. It is unheard of a competition swimmer drowning, but one never stops learning.

Acrolein detected in Golda School

Following Kever Benjamin's Golda School that had been closed for three years because the environmental groups feared cancer causing pollution, the Municipality is monitoring continuously its atmosphere. The sewage main line that had originally caused the alarm is no longer active, but weekly air samples are taken and the parents informed of the results.

Last week the lab results indicated presence of acrolein in the air, causing tremendous alarm among the parents and the neighborhood. Acrolein has a menacing name but it is not a suspected human carcinogen; no studies have been conducted on the carcinogenic effects of acrolein on humans, studies on rats have shown that inhalation of acrolein does not cause an increase in tumors.

The environmental lab says that the probable origin of the chemical in the air is tobacco cigarette smoke and advised to eliminate the air vents of the toilets.

What do I deduce from the expert's report? One, the children smoke in the toilets. They could have asked my daughter and she would have told them for free. Two, the experts are idiots. Closing the vents will not reduce the concentration of acrolein, it will increase it. Three, without air vents the toilets will not work and the school will be flooded with excrement.

The whole problem is imaginary. Hiring an exorcist shaman as I proposed would have been cheaper and more effective.

Tarzan's Son, Dead

In life, Hungarian-born Johnny Weissmuller aka Tarzan of the Apes, was rumored to be homosexual. As kids, we used to joke about his sex life with Cheeta and other members of his primate band. But on film, he was a model WASP family man. The Boy (pic) grew up to be a California real estate agent. He died recently.

What is The Economist talking about?

The Economist:

For now, Mr Nachman continues to spurn the ultra-orthodox Jews who have peopled much larger settlements. But seemingly holding his nose, he has welcomed religious “Anglos”, or English-speaking Jewish immigrants, including a South African rabbi. He has also made room for some of the religious settlers Israel moved from Gaza when it pulled out in 2005. But if it is to survive, Ariel will have to swallow its pride and admit less tolerant and flexible folk. Not such great news after all.

I keep being amazed by The Economist malignant distorsion of Israel. It happens that was present at the foundation of Ariel by Menachem Begin, work in Ariel and know its Palestinian City Engineer and its major Ron Nachman, who is fighting for his life (has urinary cancer). The Economist builds up a straw man, an imaginary Nachman who stands at the city door forbidding the entrance of Jews who keep the Shabbath. The Economist reports his humiliation when he is forced to swallow his pride and holding his nose, receive a South African rabbi with "Anglo" settlers...

Say this is read in Tokyo, what does the article convey? Reality is that all Jews including Ethiopian converts are welcome in Ariel, they can buy an apartment (if they have the money, they are expensive). The city has stopped growing in the eighties because successive governments refused to approve building permits and are chasing away existing industries. I cannot imagine to whom and to what The Economist is referring when writes "Ariel will have to swallow its pride and admit less tolerant and flexible folk". What is The Economist talking about?

If The Economist reports such nonsense about things I know well, why should I believe it when it writes about things I know nothing, like Japan or Australia?

Turkish Calculations

Turkey's President Erdogan declared that Turkey doesnt see Iran as a military threat, so it is not joining NATO's missile defense system directed. The Army dissents: “A country can’t make its plans according to intentions. We might enjoy good relations with Iran but this can change, just as the good relations during the shah times between Washington and Tehran changed.”

“What counts for NATO are not intentions but capabilities,” said Ümit Pamir, Turkey’s former envoy to NATO. “What is important is not whether Iran will use its ballistic missiles against Turkey. Actually, I as well do not believe that Iran will attack Turkey. What matters is not the actual threat but the perception. Iran’s influence will increase as its armaments efforts continue and if you don’t counterbalance that armament effort, your political influence will automatically diminish.”

What is going on? Turkey wants to ally itself to Iran and leave NATO? What is the attraction of of the Iran-Syria-Venezuela axis?

A Good Day in TASE

The Tel Aviv 25 Index set another all-time record today. Israel Chemicals Ltd. (TASE: ICL) was a main focus of investor interest today, rising 1.1%. Reports of a huge deal by a rival for 3.1 million tons of potash boosted the sector. The energy sector also received a lift, as the Ministry of National Infrastructures announced new regulations for transferring licenses. Isramco Ltd. (Nasdaq: ISRL; TASE: ISRA.L) rose 3.5%. Modiin Energy LP (TASE:MDIN.L) rose 4.5%. Delek Real Estate Ltd. (TASE: DLKR rose 2.1%, after reporting the sale of a building in London. Tower Semiconductor (Nasdaq: TSEM; TASE: TSEM) rose 1% on a report of a deal said to be worth $3-5 million per year.

Obviously this growing mountain of dollars doesnt mean that I am getting richer but that the dollar is worth evermore less. Soon all of us will be worth a million but then being a millioner will mean exactly nothing.

Hamseen - The Hot Desert Wind Hits Kever

Second day of hamseen here. Air conditioner working at full. I discovered that my fishmonger sells salmon for 80 shekel a kilo but for only 10 shekel the cuts with back bone. So instead of salmon head I am buying salmon residues and boiling them with curry powder. The resulting soup has a bright yellow - saffron color with rich fish oil drops floating around. My mother said that I am like my late grandfather Gyula, of Jaszbereny, hoarding money and real estate. She knew me well and she knew her father-in-law (I didnt). It is our nature and I find myself ending my days as his clone; I didnt set out to be like him but could not help it.

A Baron Rothschild

The Baron from the French Branch of the banking family is in Israel and was interviewed by the HaAretz fishwrap. This Baron thinks that the Jewish people made a big mistake in erecting obstacles for non-Jews twho try to join us. Jews are so few that are in danger of disappearing, he says. The Baron's mother was converted by a Paris rabbi, so he himself may not be Jewish according to the Orthodox. His wife is not Jewish and his daughter's boyfriend is a Saudi muslim. "If I am not a Jew, why are they begging me for donations?" he asks.

This Baron comes through as a decent, responsible, solid goyish character. He is very far from the Rothschilds of Frankfurt's Judengasse. The pic shows a Jewisher Rothschild making aliyah.

יש ויש = they come in all colors, says the Hebrew slang.

Investment Follow Ups

Zev Abelesz, Chief of Bank Igud, wanted to distribute 50 million shekel dividend, but the Central Bank didnt allow it. They want to study the overall capital strength of the bank. That means that it is quite possible that also Bank HaPoalim will be able to pay out the dividend I am hoping for.

More oil was discovered in Israel. Bontan Corporation Inc. (OTCBB:BNTNF.ob - News) confirmed that the blocks covered by Sarah and Myra licenses are within a functioning petroleum system. The right to licences is held by a group comprising IPC Oil and Gas Ltd Partnership, Tel Aviv-based Emanuelle Energy Ltd, Modin Energy Partnership Limited, Emanuelle Energy Oil & Gas Limited Partnership and other entities including the operator, GeoGlobal Resources (India) Inc. Ofer Investments Ltd agreed to invest up to US$ 28 million and acquire a 50% equity in IPC Oil and Gas (Israel)Limited Partnership (IPC Israel). IPC Israel's remaining 50% is owned by Isarel Petroleum Company, Limited, Cayman (IPC Cayman). Bontan owns 76.79% of IPC Cayman. The funds will cover IPC Israel's share of the costs of the initial two test wells, based on the current estimates. Bontan currently has 78,314,076 common shares issued and outstanding and is debt free. Its share price jumped 25% today.

40 Celsius in Kever Benjamin City

October 20 2010 1100 AM and 40 degree Celsius. Registered in my studio with open windows. If the Middle East is not warming up, then what is happening?

Cant work. Cant think. I am out of investment/speculation ideas.

Leptospirosis in Central America

800 new cases of leptospirosis in Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica. 16 people dead. Managua infested. Tipitapa y Ticuantepe dangerous. Dont travel to these places.

Not Der Sturmer, but...

A city of Arabs and Jews is being pulled apart by the government’s attitude

shouts The Economist's headline this morning. The radio here also talks nonstop about the "honor-killing" last night: a 38 old married Arab woman was gunned down, probably by her own family who suspected infidelity. Arab violence in Lod is similar to Arab violence in Marseille, but The Economist focuses in Lod and blames Israeli government. The Economist even manages to mention Gaza and Israel's war of liberation in the short article. I would not classify the article in Der Sturmer rank, but its obvious venom is amazing to this Israeli Jew. In these day I am working in a large project in Lod. The pic shows Nasrin, an Arab actress.

Dr Tuvia Luskin Speaks

The brains behind Givat Olam drilling partnership - the one that found oil near Kever Benjamin - says that the world is "top oil" situation and from here on oil availability will sink. He has one or more Ph.D.s from Moscow. In the same meeting today, another expert said that Israel has to ensure Middle East stability and steady oil supply. Should oil rise to 200 dollar a barrel, the world may decide that cannot suffer Israel anymore and destroy it. These are our people talking.

Pledge

The international media is making a big noise about the a proposed amendment requiring naturalized citizens to pledge allegiance to Israel as a Jewish and democratic state. Why? I came to Israel as an adult and received my citizenship certificate by the hand of a bureaucrat - a small black Yemeni - who made me read something. Some kind of meaningless formula that I didnt bother to understand and forgot before left the room. I do remember quite distinctly the banality of the ceremony and the poverty (and dirt) of the office.

Oil at 100 - 150 dollar a barrel?

The temptation of speculating again in oil is "killing" me. Rumors here say that the USA is organizing an embargo of Iran's oil, which will cause panic and prices may temporarily reach 150 dollars.

Vade retro, Satanas!

Chinese Forces in the Mediterranean

Turkey is changing its political and military alliances, moving out of NATO into a potential Iran-China axis. Chinese war planes (pic Sukhoy heavy bomber) were photographed in Central Anatolia and they apparently came directly from China refueling in Iran. While America is still fighting in Afganistan, the overall impression is that Asia is being evacuated by the West.

Of monkey god gold

Deflation

While waiting for the computer to work itself through the data, I shall write down my thoughts. Following Mangan's very pessimistic note on his country, which apparently reflects the general ambiance, I think that America may be in danger of falling into deflation. Deflation is a mass psychological mood of loss of faith in the future, fear to start new things, avoiding new experiences instead of touring the world's seven marvels. In a deflationary environment people will not even go out to the street to pick up dollar bills laying on the pavement. Banks are pushing loans at 0% interest and people is not taking them. Once national pessimism sets in, it may last a generation.

New Cycle of Fasting

I have tried to fast without Dr Rasputin and failed. Now I am starting once more and alone a new week of fasting, hoping to succeed this time. The first two days are the most difficult, because I am addicted to food. Last week I had a glass of milk and felt a wave of pleasure and wellbeing - and I broke down. I am drinking strong coffee trying to overcome these difficult two days.

Eva Zur

Mandelbroit

Benoit Mandelbrot died of pancreatic cancer. I have bought his books about fractals, but never saw any application of them in the real world. Nice graphics but no use in stock exchange. He was a Litvak Jew.

Israeli-Chinese Car

The Chery. This is Zionism too!

Thoughts of an old Jew sunbathing poolside

Thomas Harris's Dr Hannibal Lecter, in a passage of the book, smells the cunt of the young woman standing outside of his underground cell. He is also able to distinguish light whiffs of perfume when she opens for a second her handbag. This is not a literary construct, I can do it too. I was half sleeping/half meditating in the sunshine near the pool, when a woman passed by leaving a strong scent of urine. Now awake, I started to pay attention and definitely, seminude females leave an odor floating by. Old women are repulsive, young girls interesting. It must be human pheromone. Today the air is very clear and fresh. I saw the Chief of Staff in the club followed by two armed gorillas in gym outfits. He is fit and exercises without sparing himself.

Cyclical Oil Overproduction

Alfin has a fine analysis of the oil market situation. OPEC is trying to enforce its production quotas and cause an artificial scarcity to harden oil prices. The fact is that real prices have fallen about 15% (think dollar devaluation) and new discoveries and extraction technologies are announcing an cycle of overproduction.

The corollary is that the investments in "alternative", "green", "renewable" energy are not economically viable and the subsidies which maintain them alive will have to be cut. The investments in wind farms and so on are going to be lost. Only a Middle East war that would stop oil trade could make them worth something.

Yet I am not shorting oil. I did it two years ago and lost a lot of money. It is a very uncertain thing. Pic: Prometheus - that of the energy - in Rockefeller Center, NYC.

The Future: Uncertain

Gen. Uzi Dayan said that Galant, our new War Chief, should prepare for war because:

(1) The USA is leaving Iraq and no one what will happen: it can break up following ethnic and religious lines, it can turn a religious subordinate of Iran, it can hold and become a secular counterforce to Iran. Just in case, Saudi Arabia is building a 800 km border fence.

(2) There are a million Iraqi refugees in Jordan.

(3) Egypt is closing its Mubarak Sr. era.

(4) Lebanon political situation is fragile and civil war may start any moment.

(5) Turkey has chosen to join the anti-American Iran-Syria axis

(6) The Middle East, as a whole, is fast becoming warmer and drier.

(7) Iran is arming itself with nuclear ballistic missiles.

Ms Ahmedenijad Sightseeing at Israel

The Leader's wife toured the Israel-Lebanon border. Like Moses, she watched the Promised Land from afar but was not allowed to enter. She is the one in black dress.

Alert! Currency Speculators Against the Shekel!

Israel is being flooded with dollars. Central Banker Stanley Fisher is buying up them by the hundred millions. Israeli economy is in danger. I am thinking what to do.

Please dont feed me Carbohydrates

An useful bit of knowledge from the NYT article on the Chilean mine rescue:

Just after the miners were discovered alive on Aug. 22, they were in danger, he said. They had survived for 17 days on just two spoonfuls of tuna, a cup of milk, one cracker and a bit of a peach topping every other day. Their digestive and insulin systems had nearly shut down and they were breaking down their own fat and muscle tissue.

People on starvation diets can be killed by eating carbohydrates too quickly; as the body struggles to make insulin in response, it can upset the electrolyte balance, stopping the heart.

“We learned that the hard way in World War II, giving candy bars to prisoners of war and concentration camp inmates,” Dr. Polk said.

Bernsteinzimmer

The Bernsteinzimmer (The Amber Room) was built in Prussia between 1701 and 1710 and given as a present to Elector Friedrich's friend the Tsar Peter. In 1941 Leningrad (Tsarskoye Selo) was occupied by the Nazis who took down the decorations. The resulting 6000 kg amber and 500 kg gold was sent to Königsberg, where it was last seen on Feb. 1945.

New Year Resolutions

It is the same as the year before and before and before. My strategy in 2011 will be re-evaluate my portfolio and to develope my high-risk operations up to the 10% of my portfolio. If an investor sleeps well, he is not risking enough. Lately I am not sleeping well, but that is unrelated to the stock exchange. I shall reduce my alcohol and food intake, and search actively for a better class of clients in my consulting engineer practice.

Why cant I make my new year promises on October 13th.?

The Economics of Fire Protection

Prof. Arnold Kling has an interesting discussion on the subject. Since I make hydrant and sprinkler systems design, I have wondered if there was a space for private, for profit, activity in fire fighting. In Israel today firefighting is a municipal monopoly and I frequently spend time in the stations defending my designs in order to receive building permits. The stations's permanent activity is permitting and inspections. The fire-fighters mostly are sitting in front of the TV and lunching in the club house. Kling writes:

I assume that fire-fighting is an industry with declining average costs. Suppose that it takes $1 million in fixed costs per year to maintain the fire department (that includes normal profit, aka opportunity cost), the variable cost per fire is $10,000, and on average you put out 100 fires a year.

Your total costs are $2 million. If you try to make them back by charging $20,000 per fire, a competitor will come in and charge less. So you cannot sustain that price.

The cost structure implies natural monopoly. A two-part tariff is probably optimal. You charge a "membership fee" to cover the $1 million in fixed costs and then charge a fire-fighting fee of $10,000 to put out each fire, paid by the owner who has the fire. Some customers might want insurance against having to pay the fire-fighting fee, in which case they would prefer to pay a higher "membership fee" and a lower fire-fighting fee. Depending on the degree of moral hazard, the fire company might provide this insurance, perhaps even charging nothing for fighting the actual fire.

The more members a fire company has, the lower the membership fee. Hence the tendency toward natural monopoly.

The space for private activity could be in providing "extra" services and it would be paid by the insurance companies. It would be like the extra-home and business protection provided by private police firms. The situation in the property protection area is that the police stopped coming when only property is endangered (and no life is involved) - so there is a need for a private service. In firefighting the existing system is quite efficient, one because the permitting system is very rigorous and they demand sprinklers and heat alarms, and second because firefighters are well equipped, well trained and well paid. Much of what they actually do is rescue work.

What I am noticing in Israel is that the police started to involve itself in the permitting business and is building up its inspection personnel. They demand security doors, alarms, lights and so on. They are pestering me with site drawings and so on. It would be interesting to learn how is in California. California today is Israel five-ten years later. Pic.: Statue in Sacramento, Calif.

The Israel Fund for Capital Export

The people in the Ministry of Finance are promoting the establishment of a new organization: The Fund to Promote Capital Export. The idea is to have something like other countries with surplus capital, like Norway (oil), Dubai (oil), Kuwait (oil), Singapur (like TEMASEK, port services), like California (State employees retirement funds) and others. Obviously, the wunderkinder see Israel as flooded by dollars and too small for them. The fund would diversify Israeli retirement savings and excess capital by finding investment opportunities all over the world. Maybe this is a natural development and if the current de facto peace with the neighbors holds and America perseveres in patrolling the seas, we shall prosper as under Roman Imperium (before that suicidal rebellion - dwg.: the Temple of Jerusalem full of gold vessels).

The Strangeness of Lebanon

The investigation of President Hariri's assessination is pointing to the Hizballah, the Party of God. This may result in the renewal of the civil war. But the economic situation is stable, said Riad Salame of the Lebanese Central Bank, in Detroit. The 2010 budget has a 2.7 billion surplus. A quarter of country's GNP is generated by Lebanese living in America. Is Lebanon a country?

My Favorite Pump-Store Project Assessinated

I have written about the Pump-Store energy project in the Carmel near Haifa, which would have pumped water to the reservoir on top of the hill during the night when electricity is cheap, and generate and sell electricity during the peak demand hours. A clean energy project as any, no atom splitting nor fossil oil burning. Only last year it was proclaimed a "National Priority Project" meaning that all bureaucratic obstacles would be eliminated.

Today, the project was killed by our chief, Bibi Netaniyahu. The Municipality of Nesher, a small town near the site, is opposed to the development and they found a way to assessinate it through coalition politics.

I was brought up in a Stalinist regime dedicated to industrialize rural Hungary. Each new factory was celebrated and each drainage channel was a triumphal step toward Socialism. The killing of this project is incomprehensible, irrational, deeply revolting for me. It appears that the people of Nesher hate economic development and they purposefully sabotage progress. In Hungary of my times they would have been sentenced for antisocialists and forced to evacuate their homes. These people dream of living in an Alpine valley with freely roaming gazelles in nature.

Maybe it is time for me to discard my early education.

No "Green Buildings" in Israel

Five years ago the Israeli Standards Insititute proclaimed the Standard 5281 that certifies "Green Buildings". Like all Israeli regulations, it is not only impossibly demanding but also absurd and self-contradicting. In spite of the tremendous demand for "Green Buildings" (young people here is crazy for the environment and ready to pay more for a "green" apartment) only five projects received certification.

Now the British Green Standard company was hired to help rewrite the standard.

BTW, the Ministry of Health forbids the reuse of grey water in domestic situations. The Israeli Standard demands it. I wanted to be active in this field, but it is dead.