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The US is playing a dangerous game - it may be that whoever comes next will hate the US in any event, but they will hate us even more if we cling to supporting Mubarrak beyond his "sell-by" date and while he shoots protestors. If such moderate forces even exist, better that the US back a moderate successor (el Baradei?) or else the Muslim Brotherhood will move in to the power vacuum and they will owe us nothing. Bin Laden advices that you back the strong horse. I'm not sure that Mubarrak is the strong horse anymore. He apparently has lost the support of the army and I'm not sure his Securitate is strong enough to keep him on the thrown. Every protestor they shoot just further guaranties their demise. I don't think that Mubarrak has the strength or military backing to pull off a Tiananmen. I am not optimistic, neither for Mubarrak's survival nor the friendliness toward the US and Israel of the regime that will follow. Maybe he will get luck and hold the line but I don't give him strong odds.K
Mubarrak will survive on the condition that his health allows it. His son has disqualified himself from succession. That must be a bitter pill for him.
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