In this New Year, Israel has 7.8 million inhabitants, similar to Switzerland and other small European countries. 5.8 M are registered as Jewish (nationality), 1.6 Arabs and 0.3 as "Others" (for example, non-Jewish Russian immigrants). There are in addition some 0.3 illegal mostly Sudanese and Erythrean immigrants, may be more.
36% of the Jews (2.2 million) are Ashkenazi Jews born in Europe, America and South Africa. 37.7% of the Jewish population is Israeli, a category that includes Jews born in Israel (40% of them, maybe, are Ashkenazim, 40% North AFrican, Iraqi and other non-European, and about 20 - 25% are mixed. This last category is growing very fast. My estimate). 25.1% of the Jews here were born in Asia and Africa.
The most interesting trend is the steady increase in births. There were about 180,000 births in 2010, a demographic increase of 2% per annum. The Jewish woman has 3 children average and this numer is INCREASING (the Arab, four and it is DECREASING). There is a steady trend to equalize the features of both sectors, and the Arab sector is fast integrating into the general population even to the point that the younger generation is adopting its language (Hebrew) and culture. The integration cannot be full because of the Rabbinate forbids conversion and intermarriage (of course, human race being the sex crazed maniacs we are, will screw Neanderthals, Denosovians and !San pygmies, in fact, anything walking in two feet and four too if he can catch it. What I am saying is that the cross-interaction is intense, white hot).
Time is working for us. Populations in the Middle East are in transition, and Lebanon, Turkey, Tunisia, Algeria and other are already below replacement. In a few years Egypt and Jordan will inevitably reach that stage too. What makes Israeli Jews different? That here the priestly "tribe" (the cohanim - our rabbis and scholars) have not given up the power they had in traditional Jewish communities. In America, only the Orthodox rabbis see themselves as power persons, leading and teaching the Am Ho-Oyretz (the people of the land, that is the garden variety Jew like myself) while the Reformist "rabbis" think they are social workers.
Pic.: London's Chief Rabbi the Lord Sack. Quote:
"Europe, at least the indigenous population of Europe, is dying. That is one of the unsayable truths of our time. We are undergoing the moral equivalent of climate change and no one is talking about it."
"Albert Camus once said, 'The only serious philosophical question is why should I not commit suicide?'. I think he was wrong. The only serious philosophical question is, why should I have a child?"
19 comments:
Good post.
Am touring Scandinavia, I do see white babies quite often.
Anon.
Just one problem - the Muslims get married and have children EARLIER, so they bring in the next generation faster, even if the women are having less children.
human race being the sex crazed maniacs we are, will screw Neanderthals,
Humans did not have children with Neanderthals. This has been debunked over the past two months.
Sex, who knows, but few if any children.
I think it is a mistake to forbid conversion. I believe in ancient times, conversion (mainly in the form of taking wives from other nations) was common among the Jews. Islamic and Christian doctrine made it illegal for non-Jews to convert and under this pressure Jewish law shifted. Now that we once again have a state, it is time to revert to the ancient practice - this can only increase the # of Jews.
K
K,
It depends on the populations from which the converts would come. If Israel were in Europe or East Asia, it would be ok, but in its current location, it might not work out so well.
It's a mistake, anyway, to make long-term population predictions based on short-term population trends. The Arab birthrate hasn't been down for long, and vice versa, the Israeli Jewish birthrate hasn't been up for that long. J always likes to ignore the fact that the high Jewish birthrate is largely due to births among impoverished and ignorant ultra-orthodox who survive on government handouts. In an era of worldwide economic depression, those high birthrates might be a flash in the pan, too.
A few quibbles: Egypt's fertility decline stalled a while ago at around three births per woman. I don't think slide to below replacement fertility in Egypt is by any means inevitable.
Ok, maybe just one quibble. Also, I think the Ashkenazi-Sephardic Jewish intermarriage is a good thing. Ashkenazi are briliant but too specialized.
When the term is used in the loose sense, not all "Sephardic" Jews have ancestors who resided in Spain pre-1492. Most of those so-labeled in Israel are really Mizrahim of Middle Eastern ancestry, and the Yemeni Jews make up a large fraction of them. Yemeni Jews have a higher percentage of sub-Saharan ancestry than Ashkenazim or even other Mizrahim. Moreover, their culture is typical Middle Eastern corrupt and dysfunctional. So maybe it's not such a fantastic idea to mix the Ashkenazim with them? Or if you still believe it so, then why wouldn't it be better to mix the Ashkenazim with Europeans and East Asians? Those are not totally dysfunctional cultures, and the physical phenotype is better as well.
Regarding demography, all prediction is speculative. Yet Egypt is similar to other North African countries and will follow their pattern.
Regarding conversion, the barrier is not impermeable. The Jewish religion is very attractive for Europeans that lost their faith, and we could easily double our population. The Mizrahi (Oriental) rabbis dont like the idea, because they would lose relative power.
Moreover, their culture is typical Middle Eastern corrupt and dysfunctional.
Actually, the irony is that if you compare "Mizrahi" Middle Eastern Jews and "Sephardic" North African Jews, the former have behaved a lot better.
Yemeni Jews in particular are a generally mellow and well-behaved people.
But most of the "Sephardic" North African Jews are Sephardic by prayer service custom only. The Sephardic immigrants after 1492 were very influential over their new communities wherever they went and prevailed on the others to absorb their customs. For true Sephardic bloodlines, one might have to go to Italy, Turkey, UK, the Netherlands (not many left post-WWII).
Perhaps. Genetic studies have found an East-West division in Jews, in which both Ashkenazi, "True" Sephardic and North African Jews belong to the western clade.
But NA Jews' real problem is that most of their upper class went to France.
I think your assertion that Judaism is so attractive to European atheists that Israel's population will double is a wild fantasy. To the extent that Judaism attracts converts, it is usually in the context of marriage. Atheists usually remain atheists or adopt some more fashionable religion such as Buddhism. Now other wild fantasies (and nightmares) have come true, but this does not make such a prediction any more speculative or unlikely.
K
It is unlikely because we do not want to accept converts in any large numbers. In the Antiquity, Paulus created a new religion for those who wanted to be Jews but couldn't.
I thought the invention of the "New Covenant" was one of the most brilliant marketing strokes in all of history. Adopting the 613 mitzvot has always been a heavy burden for converts - giving up your favorite ham and cheese sandwich, etc. The real killer is circumcision - I always imagine a conversation between a Roman prospect and an ancient rabbi - "I have to cut off what?" Paul got rid of all of that - believe in Jesus and you don't have to bother with any of that stuff - Christianity (especially in modern form where things like meatless Fridays are gone) is almost unique among major religions in its total lack of dietary laws and no physical mutilation is required, just a quick dunk in the water and you're in. You can even syncretize your existing gods and goddesses with Jesus and Mary and the saints if you keep quiet about it.
K
K
K
You are referring to today's Christianity. Catholics in my time had to observe Lent and many other dietary and sexual prohibitions. It was a serious religion.
Israel's future will be decided without , probably in Washington if ever anti Semitic powers become dominant an the American umbrella were removed the clock would start ticking. In this one man one vote world were every organization is a run by a vote or veto the former being anti the latter pro Israeli all global instruments UN sec con, w bank ,NATO,EU etc will turn anti berfit of US veto.
Expect indefinite isolation, divestment, exclusion from global bodies, sanctions, demonization etc in the name of fair play.
Unlike nations with hundreds of millions or billions a cut of from external tech and market systems is lethal add a internal demographic threat observe those who fell S Vietnam S.A, Rhodesia
I disagree w/ Anonymous - the founders of the state of Israel were serious when they said "never again". If the Jewish people are to be destroyed again, at the very least they are taking a hell of a lot of their enemies with them, courtesy of their very formidable nuclear arsenal. It is not a coincidence, BTW, that Israel's nuclear weapon delivery capability now extends to Europe and beyond, and the enemies of Israel everywhere must bear this in mind.
K
The most certain way to ensure that Europe will be hostile to Israel and the Jews is to continue pumping anti-Semitic immigrants into Europe at the current rate.
The certain way to guarantee that hostile mass immigration will continue to happen in Europe is to advocate for open borders and mass immigration into the USA, of non-whites, who do not give a rat's ass about Israel.
In this manner, the only real friends that Israel has in this world, who are ethnic Europeans in the USA and parts of Europe, will be rendered increasingly powerless in their own countries and in particular, powerless to stop waves of anti-Semitism spreading within their borders and internationally against Israel.
That the open borders crowd in the US cannot figure this out, or don't seem to care about it, is beyond my comprehension. It is like watching someone prepare their own funeral (as well as ours).
Anon.
Nuclear weapons are tools for a narrow range of tasks they cannot change opinion, force dock workers to unload ships, ease academic sanctions, veto, etc Bear in mind sans US pressure expect unchecked nuclear and missile proliferation.
They pretend otherwise but Europeans are intrinsically anti Semitic then and now immigrants are merely lead in this fuel, read the US immigration as a weakening of the US right they know what to do but their opponents won't let them(Arizona fiasco).
It is not a given the enemy will be this weak and the war is uncauterized
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