Sunday, September 04, 2011
People Selling Everything
The large demonstration yesterday (450,000 people) demanding to punish the rich and lower the prices of real estate and food, added to the declaration of cold war against us by Turkey, is causing a total collapse on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange. Stocks are in uniform free fall - TASE 5 is down 4-5%. According to The Economist table, TASE has lost about 21% this year, the most of all stock exchanges. Once more, my portfolio is (-) minus. One wondedrs what is with Turkey: They were not accepted in the EU and now they are intent on remaking their pre-Kemal Empire. That means Kurdistan (even Iraqi Kurdistan), Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, Palestine... etc.
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10 comments:
The wealthy who are under attack might be wise to get their money out of Israel and to abandon the place. Let the Marxists have their utopia, a stagnant shithole economically on par with the Palestinian territories. But at least everyone will be equal.
There were no larger social differences than in the socialist paradise. Everybody knows ii but the envy of the rich blinds the Israelis.
Another large factor in today's collapse is the coming visit of Turkey's President to Gaza with a strong armed convoy. He says he is finishing the blockade, and I dont know what the hell we shall do.
Unfortunately, in a place like Israel, the rich cannot guarantee its security.
Israel needs a constant stream of new citizens being born to prevent a demographic catastrophe.
We know from elsewhere that rich people tend to have fewer kids, but are also vital to the economy which provides employment to the poorer people who actually do have children, at least the useful children who will actually consent to serve in the military later on.
So the government is in a dilemma, and has to find a compromise that optimizes the situation. Neither party to this conflict can be dealt with insensitively.
Anon.
"There were no larger social differences than in the socialist paradise."
I know. I was just being tongue-in-cheek. The well-connected leftist manipulators turn the empty heads of the populace to socialism with false promises of future equality.
Don't worry. The world is safe now that Libya is a democracy.
The welfare state cannot rely on the beneficiaries of its largesse to support it. What is the point of subsiding students, the Haredim and the Arabs if they are going to turn on you?
The Israelis should just ignore Erdogan and let his convoy pass through, that man is trying to revive his mojo on the back of the Israelis.
Ivan
The TA-25 stock index peaked at 1342 over the last 12 months and closed 1082 either today or Friday. That's a 19% loss and qualifies as a bear market. Similarly the Dow peaked at 12,876 and closed at 11,240 Friday. That's a loss of 13% over the same time frame. I'm not sure what the average volatility is for the TA-25 but if it's greater then the difference in loss between the two might be caused by that alone.
In other words, the trouble you see might be just the turmoil of world markets and have nothing to do with recent demonstrations in Israel.
The contribution of Europe and the USA to the stability of the world economy is negative and will get more negative yet.
The welfare state simply cannot co-exist with mass immigration. The electorates are starting to disbelieve the lies of the politicians and their lapdogs in the MSM. Hence the collapse in confidence.
It has more to do with this than internal events in Israel. There is no place to hide, at least for the average schmuck.
Anon.
Zarkov01
In that timeframe, you are right. Yet my subjective feeling is that NASDAQ is much more stable than TASE and that TASE is exposed to large oscilations due to nervous foreign investors over-reacting to the "news". "News" are created by hysterical foreign correspondents in Israel, who see a large crowd and automatically write that "Coronel Netanyahu is about to fall like Ghaddafi".
J.
We need more than "feelings" when making financial judgments. I don't like losing money and I rarely do. It would be great to compute the drawdowns for the TASE. Drawdowns (run length encoding) provides better information than serial return correlations. In that way we could see if the TASE is subject to wealth destroying panics more than other exchanges.
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