So everything we can control is not probability but everything we cannot control is probability. The difference is the reach of human control. THROW UP A COIN: If we could control all the variables (force, direction, temperature, wind, atmospheric pressure, etc.) then we could predict the outcome and there would be no probability.
Probability then is an effect of the limitation of our capabilities. As humans improve their capabilities, they are also restricting the space allowed for probability, till presumably one day probability will disappear and everything will become certain and clear.
Without offending anyone, probability is for morons. As soon as we become intelligent, probability will be as if never existed. Ultimately, probability does not exist, only that we are too stupid to see clearly.
Now, why should I tire my two remaining neurons reading Spiegel's book on something that does not exist? Better I have lunch and a glass of vodka.
11 comments:
Science is all about creating imperfect models to predict reality.
But probability is so important and useful to us, that a metaphysical quality has been attached to it.
Probability is guessing what will happen when we are too stupid to see clearly reality.
Probability is guessing what will happen when we are too stupid to see clearly reality.
A great TED talk on chance & probability:
How juries are fooled by statistics
He even brings up flipping coins upfront.
No, he is talking about statistics. He assumes probability exists.
No, he is talking about statistics. He assumes probability exists.
Einstein said that God does not play dice. But quantum mechanics (based on probabilities) has proved to have great explanatory power. A theory doesn't have to be literally true if it works well enough for practical purposes.
K
Actually, I think that there are areas of uncertainty that are inherently irreducible.
In a collection of radio-active atoms, for example, we know the likelihood that one of them will decay in the next particular specified period of time.
But no-one can tell which atom it will be that decays; not even the atoms themselves know if they will decay or not.
Anon.
we dont know but it is perfectly knowable. Only the WE dont know.
It is certainly possible to have a discussion on this point.
Anon.
My thesis is that probability does not exist. Everything has a cause-effect relationship and there is no chance at all. Our knowledge of all the cause-effect links is very poor, specially of very small things like molecules, atoms and subatomic particles. Our brain did not evolve to perceive and understand things that cannot be seen. We have developed probabilistic methods to guess how things may work, it is an approximation.
Discuss.
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