China's agricultural potential is in the almost empty West China, and the only problem is water. The irrigation of these vast area would more than double China's agricultural lands and production, solving the overconcentration of its population in the Pacific seabord.
On the other hand, China's rivers are drying up and the water supply to its cities is in danger. Tientsin and Beijing are being supplied partly by overpumping of aquifers, which is unsustainable.
The solution is to bring water from the mountains. China has traditionally solved its geopolitical problems by gigantic public works, and that is what I think is going to do in the next decades.
There is untapped water resources in the Tibetan Plateau, consisting in many rivers and lakes. But the most attractive project is the damming of the Brahmaputra-Tsangpo river at the Great Bend (pic) for electricity production, and the channeling of its flow towards the NorthWest instead its "natural" course towards the South East. These civil engineering works face tremendous problems in the frozen Himalaya highlands without roads or communications. Yet the Chinese, throughout their long history, have demonstrated their superb ability specifically in this kind of projects. In my opinion, the Chinese love mobilizing tens of millions in building grandiose projects. This is the kind of bombastic project they would die to have.
Of course, the water gained by China will be on account of India and Bangladesh. India is so nervious about the mere mention of projects regarding the upper Brahmaputra that the Chinese government maintains a demostrative lack of interest in them. I dont know if it is because of censure or what, but the Chinese are not talking about it.
Yet it is there all the time.
3 comments:
There is a tacit understanding that India recognises Chinese sovereignty over Tibet in return for China not doing what you have written. When one interferes with millenia old water patterns it is understood that it not just as an act of war, but an attempt to destroy the preconditions for life. It may quickly degenerate into a war of annihilation. Have the Israelis ever contemplated cutting off water supply to the Palestinians? No one in his right should do this, for as my friends used to say - we can change all that.
Ivan
If history teaches something, it is that upriver powers do what they want. Turkey has recently dammed the Euphrates, drying out half Syria and half Iraq. Lebanon has diverted the Litani and we in Israel are doing nothing. At some moment, the temptation for China may be too great.
Agreed but "Free the Litani" does not have quite the same resonance as "Free the Himalayas, abode of our ancient Gods." India is as much a cultural construct as any ancient nation such as China and Israel - the physical correlate of this culture extends into Tibet. A little diversion here and there may not bother the Indians much, but the Himalayas are India's watershed; she simply cannot allow large-scale diversions it to happen.
Ivan
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