The best investment advice is: READ! Reading this lazy Saturday I understood the idea behind trading. It is so obvious yet it strikes me as an insight. I had heard the concept forty years ago from the mouth of Mr Quesus, a rich Tetuan Jew who arrived alone and penniless in Argentina and started selling faux jewelry in rural areas. The idea is that anything you earn is the loss of your trading counterpart, there are no "pure" trading margins - you are taking something from somebody. I failed to internalize the concept.
In the stock market, there is a distinction between Alpha, which is earned from other active traders, and Beta, which is earned from buy-and-hold investors. When a strategy exploits "documented behavioral bias" or "institutional rigidity" it means that somebody is losing money that you are making. You need to know who those people are, why they are doing it and monitor that they keep doing it. Without a theory the only way you know your strategy stopped working is when you lose money, you never have warning, and you never know when it's safe to go back to it.
Pic: Feria de Revistas that met in Plaza Rivadavia, Buenos Aires, every Sunday morning. We boys extended the comics on the floor while others circulated with their trading stock in hand. First editions vere very valuable and I always ended the day with a more valuable collection than I brought to trade and also some cash. In the process I read every Selecciones del Readers Digest from 1945 on. Remembering it, I feel sadness and nostalgia.
Saturday, April 30, 2011
Plant a Tree in Palestine
About a hundred years after the Keren Kayemet LeIsrael (The Jewish National Fund) started its treeplanting campaign, the Palestinians are copying the early Zionist methods.
Labels:
Zionism
The economics of reproduction
The graph copied from The Economist illustrates the relative cost of children for society and for the family. One would expect that the countries where children are less expensive, more are produced. Nothing of that is happening. It appears to me that all the theories linking economy with number of children, from Malthus to Bryan Caplan, are weak. Economy has little impact on reproduction. It seems more a question of religion.
Labels:
Miscellaneous
History of Money
Talking about debasement of the dollar, it is relevant to take a look at Argentina's monetary history:
Spanish currency, till 1816
Escudo = 2 Pesos = 16 Reales (Soles) = 544 Maravedis, 1816-75
Argentine Peso = (0.20 Argentino) = 100 Centavos, 1851-1970
Argentine Peso = (100 old Peso) = 100 Centavos, 1970-1983
Peso Argentino = (10.000 old Peso) = 100 Centavos, 1983-1985
Austral = (1.000 Peso Argentino) = 100 Centavos, 1985-1992
Argentine Peso Convertible = (10.000 Austral) = 100 Centavos, 1992-2002
Argentine Peso = (Peso Convertible) = 100 Centavos, from 2002
A peso was worth 10^13 more 200 years ago than today.
Labels:
Investment
Friday, April 29, 2011
Dollar Depreciation
The dollar hit 3.39 shekel. As expected, Bernanke is depreciating the dollar to pay off the national debt in worthless electronic paper. Those owing US dollars are benefiting, those owing shekels like me are bleeding. Israeli interest rate in US dolars is now over 10% !
Labels:
Investment
Thursday, April 28, 2011
Freezing in the Frankfort Borse
I am trying to widen my horizons and starting to follow the Frankfort Borse, its people and its jargon. Schmidt (pic), a technical analyst, is optimistic. "The falling Fibonacci Fanline was overcome in 7229 points. This underscores the positive overall impression." The strangeness (better, the unfamiliarity) of the dry, methodical, formal German mind in work makes my hair to stand. I miss some warm Jewish touch.
Labels:
Investment
An Extravagant Banquet Palace
I am redesigning a very large, three floor extravagantly decorated banquet palace. The competition is ferocious and focuses on the Chef's (ie the food's) quality. The fish is expensive (it is called "dennis" and is considered a special gourmet meal).
Labels:
work
A day in the Netanya Court
I spent a tiring day in the Netanya Court. Five cases were invited to appear at 830 AM and our turn arrived at about 1 PM. So I sat there hearing all the debates and learning how it works. The Judge mostly tried to force the lawyers to agree among themselves, or she ordered another hearing two - three months from now demanding some other document. Most of the time was spent in the wording of documents. She masterfully manipulated the hearing to avoid having to decide. When our case arrrived, it was mostly dedicated to formulate the accusation document, and the defense was not given any opportunity to have a say. She even sent me out of the room to avoid any technical confrontation.
The case is the Local Authority demanding a very large retroactive payment from a restaurant in a village. They are accused of having dumped large amounts of FOG (lipids) into the sewage system (Pic: FOG obstruction). At that time, the Local Authority measured BOD5 levels and over 250 mg/lt a large penalty was paid. The law was changed, because average Israeli sewage has 550 mg/lt BOD so everybody was in contravention. Moreover, BOD (Biological Oxygen Demand during 5 days) is imprecise and variable as the same sample can produce very different lab results, and is not used in regulations. But the wrongness and the absurdity of the law at that time is of no interest to the lawyers or the Judge.
Our defense line is to demonstrate that the Local Authority did not follow strict sampling protocols, kept no detailed records, that their methods were primitive and doubtful. The Judge is siding with the Local Authority, appearing allergic to the idea that dedicated public servants could be careless or technically incompetent.
Labels:
work
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
Educational Inequity (in Israel)
Israeli Arabs lag behind in every measure linked to IQ in comparison with the average Israeli Jew. Like in the United States, the State invests three or four times per minority student than its majority homologue, but equality is not being achieved. For our local left this is the most incriminating demonstration of discrimination and apartheid. Their guilt-inducing propaganda is most effective and the government is induced to flow the Arab sector with money. I can say from my personal experience that Arab villages enjoy free water and sewage infrastructure, and they pay only once in a while their electricity, water and other services bills. We are funding them generously because we feel guilty of their underdevelopment, and also because we try to offer less photo-opportunities to the virulently anti-Israeli international media.
Moshe Arens (pic), the leader emeritus of the Likud, writes about the problem:
Moshe Arens (pic), the leader emeritus of the Likud, writes about the problem:
Israel's Arab youth lag in educational achievements behind those of Jewish youth but will, no doubt, catch up in the years to come....the achievement of equality of opportunities - the ultimate test of equality for Israel's Arab citizens - will depend in no small measure on prior service in the IDF. There lies the connection between the equality of obligations and the equality of opportunities.What is he saying? That there is no doubt that the educational inequity is something temporary and as soon as the Arabs start paying taxes and serving in the Army, all educational unequity will suddenly disappear. Neither I have any doubt that with the years, many years, absolute educational equity (I stole that from Mangan) will be achieved.
Labels:
Zionism
Comandante Kilo and his Girls
El Comandante Kilo is (was?) the leader of a Zeta-affiliated gang, currently in Mexican jail. A blogger published his foto album. The summary of the 2000 something comments is that Kilo is a lowlife cholo and his girls cheap prostitutes.
If anybody thinks that drug dealers are glamorous and live an enviable life of luxury and adventure, he should look at the pics. One comment: "un error fatal eso de tomar fotos en tus horas de trabajo..." (it is a big mistake to take pictures in your work hours).
If anybody thinks that drug dealers are glamorous and live an enviable life of luxury and adventure, he should look at the pics. One comment: "un error fatal eso de tomar fotos en tus horas de trabajo..." (it is a big mistake to take pictures in your work hours).
Labels:
War
Monday, April 25, 2011
Joel Greenblatt
Yahoo Finance is the best investment instrument these days. They have an excellent interview with Joel Greenblatt, a man who looks like my late Father. I am impressed how carefully he is watching and how fast and precisely he answers. What he is saying that one should try to estimate the worth of a company (by the amount of net cash it is generating), buy it if it is undervaluated and wait till the market catches up. He agrees that giving one's saving to a money manager is crazy.
Labels:
Investment
The Composting Business
I am reading about the budding restaurant food wastes composting business in San Francisco. Two years ago Egelston’s brewery began composting with the help of EcoMovement, a company that hauls food waste from about 40 restaurants in the region and takes it to be composted.
Composting — a natural process in which food and other organic scraps are decomposed into fertile soil — has long been a mainstay of farms and backyards. But few restaurants have the space or time to compost their own waste. They typically pay to have it disposed of in landfills along with the rest of their trash.
In Seattle, a city ordinance imposes composting.
"...food businesses to stop throwing away all single-use food service ware and packaging. All must be recyclable or compostable. Who must comply: All food-service businesses from taco trucks to teriyaki shops to national fast-food chains to hospital cafeterias and caterers."In Israel there is no law but municipalities collect waste at about 1000 shekel a ton (the price varies according to the city) so reducing it makes sense. It is forbidden to cut it into small pieces and flush it down into the sewage. So they compress it to reduce the volume. May be composting could be feasible here too. One problem is that the farmers dont need the compost and there is no market for it, it needs to be dumped into a commercial landfill. But the idea of composting is loved by city people, and they are ready to pay for it.
Labels:
Water
Sunday, April 24, 2011
Csicska: Slavery in Hungary
It is not only in the Amazonas that slavery exists: in the Hungarian countryside weak, lonely people are adopted into the family and treated as domestic slaves. They are called csicska (chichka) - the word refers to the symbol on the uniform of the military batman and came to mean servant. The papers say it is widespread in gypsy encampments.
Labels:
Miscellaneous
The New Ethnically Ambiguous America
The Atlantic says it straight: America is beigeing. Culturally, America is already a third world country. White actors and actresses are rejected by the media, they are discriminating in favor of "ethnically ambiguous" looking employees. Like this Time cover girl. (Give it a second look: Is she a she or a he?)
I am sure this is a passing phenomenon and soon the media will return to lily-white people as is the rule in Latin America. No one is interested in the sexual intrigues of Africans or Chinese or Mulatoes, paid porn is 100% blue-eyed Nordic. Moreover, in a beigue society being White will be the ideal and whiteness will mean higher salaries and other privileges. Lighter skin is rewarded in all Latin America and even in Africa. I enjoyed its privileges while growing up in Argentina.
Being minority in a democracy surely means to lose political power. The consequence will be a change in the political system. If Latin America is any indication, the Army with some conservative politicians will declare that the ongoing corruption and immorality cannot be suffered anymore and will take over to clean the administration. And new elections will be promised. After the military takeover, some political arrangement like Mexico's Permanent Institutional Revolution will govern forever.
Anyway, the current Constitution will suffer amendments to adapt it to the new ethnic composition of the Republic. But an ethnically diverse America surely will punch less than its weight in the international political-military arena. I think the new hegemon will be Germany allied with Russia. It will be no less pro-Israel than the USA. Maybe even more.
Labels:
Miscellaneous
Saturday, April 23, 2011
The Jerusalem Holyland Project: Follow Up
The permitting process of the Holyland Project in West Jerusalem took ten years and successive re-plannings. Former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Jerusalem's Major at the time, is being prosecuted for receiving political contributions to get the process moving. A third of the project has been built but a year ago, when the affair exploded, it was stopped and now the Interior Ministry ruled that the permits are cancelled and a new plan with more public space has to be submitted by the developer. The original master plan was drafted by architect Yaakov Yaar, an Israel Prize winner.
Meaning another ten years of delay in the best of the cases.
In the meanwhile, the investors that realized the hopelessness of dealing with Israeli bureaucracy sold their participation and quit. Those of slow understanding have gone broke.
It is proof of the Israeli spirit that there are still people building and developing this country.
Labels:
Zionism
World Inflation
STRATFOR has a free report on money printing in the world (graph) and its impact on prices. They say that prices are becoming unlinked from physical reality and moved by investors fears and hopes, that change from hour to hour because of mass hystery instantly powered by the internet. Ultimately all will collapse suddenly.
Labels:
Investment
Friday, April 22, 2011
Declaration of (Their) Independence
The Palestinian state was proclaimed yesterday in Tel Aviv. The solemn ceremony was attended by distinguished professors and Israel Prize winners, such as former Education Minister Shulamit Aloni, Sefi Rechelvsky, Prof. Yehuda Bauer, and Prof. Ze’ev Shternhal. The Declaration of Independence of Palestine took place in the historic Rotshschild Bvd. building where the Declaration of Independence of Israel took place in 1948. The participants signed a Declaration of Independence worded exactly like the original Israeli one: "In Palestine arose the Palestinian nation, where its character was formed...”.
It may seem amazing for a well-intentioned Gentile that the Israeli intellectual elite is declaring the independence of another nation, while the pretended citizens of the newly independent State are indifferent and absent. Are these people mad? Dear Gentile reader, know that we Jews are "blessed" with an abundance of lunatics and messiahs. Quoting the Phillistine King when David requested political refugee status: "Is there any shortage of madmen in my city that we should take you in?"
Labels:
Zionism
Res gestae
Yesterday I went to an electronics factory owned by a "tycoon". The environmental authorities demand a science report on particle dispersal and treatment. Excessive and unnecessary, but people are complaining and demanding to punish the "tycoons". The place is low tech, large tables with slaves assembling and packaging electronic thingies. No air pollution at all. Pessach holiday here.
Labels:
work
Thursday, April 21, 2011
Portfolio at All Time High
TASE reached its highest level ever while the shekel is strengthening (3.39 shekel/US$) so my portfolio is healthy. Today I bought some Netsba shares, a medium-sized building company. The reason: (1) I made a project for them and liked working with them, they are active responsive people. (2) The project was approved immediately and they paid me an unsolicited bonus, (3) They gave me another work order, and (4) They seem most friendly and nice. My rule is to invest only in companies I have direct experience with, that I know what they do: Netsba seems a good company.
Labels:
Investment
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
The Chick Has Spoken
good lord. people really have to get over the notion that humans are “rational actors” and come to terms with the fact that we are just a bunch o’ animals like the rest of the creatures on this planet. we (some of us) do have some capacity for rational thought, but most people run around most of them time operating on automatic pilot. they just feel like they’re the ones making all the decisions. that, however, is (prolly) mostly an illusion.(The pic shows the Baroness Prof. Ruth Deech, standing in for the remarkable HDBchick)
Labels:
Humor
Gypsy Problem in Hungary
During the summers, my parents sent me to breath fresh air in Pilisborosjeno, in the mountains near Budapest, in the house of a German farmer. They had two or three enormous cows in a windowless building, with dry hay packed in the gallery. I liked the smell of the melancholy monsters, always ruminating patiently till they were milked at the early morning. One night a homeless man asked permission to spend the night in the hay and the son of the German and me went to see him. I had never met a Gypsy. I had never even heard about gypsies. The regime had abolished national and religious minorities, and officially there were no gypsies in socialist Hungary.
But there he was and not alone but playing in the hay with a girl. They had numbers tattooed in their forearms like my mother: they said they had been in Auschwitz. That made a tremendous impression on me.
My next "contact" with the gypsy "problem" was when I was asked by my boss to escort Hungarian dignataries visiting Israel. Without prompting, they spoke passionately about the terrible gypsy problem of Hungary, and lamented they were not all exterminated by Hitler. The chief said that he would donate his salary to rebuild Auschwitz and solve the gypsy problem. They were not drunk. The presence of Jews (in those times there were no openly identifiable Jews in Hungary) somehow made them extremely nervous, the Jews and Auschwitz were such powerful emotional issues in their minds that somehow they felt the compulsion of draining the stress out from their systems. I was shocked and told them that Auschwitz was not a good subject in Israel.
The gypsy issue is central in the Hungarian debate, it jumps up in every conversation and the media. They are obsessed with it. There is open nostalgy for the Fascist regime because concentrated the gypsies in large camps and forbid their nomadic way of life, ultimately delivering them to Auschwitz to be destroyed. BTW, gypsies were "racially" Arian, so the Germans didnt want them and only under pressure they were accepted in Auschwitz, where they were not gassed but housed in special family camps under the category of "antisocial elements" (marked with a downward triangle - see pic).
When the Hungarian Jewish transports started arriving at Auschwitz Birkenau, the overcrowding became dangerous (typhus and cholera) so on one memorable day the whole gypsy family camp was liquidated. The Gypsies had been living in Auschwitz for more than a year and knew exactly what was happening. My mother remembered the day because of the terrible crying and shouting, as the gypsies did not walk disciplinedly into the gas chambers as the Jews did, they resisted and had to be subdued with dogs and taken away by lorries. About 4000 gypsies were killed that day.
Paradoxically, Hungarian media also remembers fondly the Communist dictatorship which did not recognize the existence of gypsies but dispersed them in public housing and forced them to work like everybody else. The word gypsy was erased being a capitalist remnant, and no one heard about them anymor. But they did not disappear but were very much alive as I saw them in the hay over the German farmer's cows.
The gypsy problem emerged only in the last decade and is driving crazy the Hungarians. The Jobbik party is riding on it and conquering seats in the parliament. Why this virulent hate? Gypsies in Hungary are an isolated and marginal minority, they do not mix nor marry Hungarians, they do not demand social assistance or pensions. They hide from the State (and the police), living from the Hungarian's garbage and occasional petty crime. What really drives crazy the Hungarians, I believe, is that the Gypsies are having children, while the Hungarian nation is rapidly dying off.
I offer no opinion. Thanks God I am not Hungarian anymore but an Israeli Jew.
Labels:
Jews
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
Vegetable oil as fuel
A google ad appeared in my computer offering vegetable oil instead of gasoil. It is an attractive alternative: soya oil cost 1 dollar a liter, gas 2 dollars. The German preheating may be even superfluous in our hot summer. Adding a bottle of cooking oil to the tank may save money? Drainage oil could do even better.
Labels:
Water
Drainage Oil Recycled
In China. FOG (fat, oil and grease) interceptors are being looted for "drainage oil" to be refined and recycled. The report says that the oil recyclers pay to the restaurants for allowing to collect the oil, and sell it for 3 yuan a liter (instead of 9 yuan for fresh oil). Fresh "virgin" soya oil costs about 1 dollar in Israel too, but the restaurant owner has to pay about 1500 shekel (400 dollars) for interceptor cleanup and disposal in "Lipodan", the recycling monopoly. In Israel, the Ministry of Health sometimes demands to see the receipts of the legal disposal of the oil. And I dont think that restaurants would risk using low quality oil. It is not an important expense.
Labels:
Water
Monday, April 18, 2011
Ten Million Potential Immigrants
From ARIS:
The “extended” population of Jewish ancestry in the U.S. is continually expanding as a result of mixed unions. When mixed marriages and unions affect half the adult population then two mixed households are formed for every homogeneous Jewish household. The population with some Jewish ancestry but following another religion then expands geometrically.
The population of recent Jewish parentage following other religions (JOR) is estimated at around 2.5 million. Non-Jewish adults in Households with Core Jewish or Jewish origin population number around 2.2 million. This suggests an “Extended Jewish population” in the U.S. on the basis of Israel’s “Law of Return”, which was estimated at 8 million people in 1990, currently numbering of over 10 million persons.
Labels:
Jews
Is Bank HaPoalim a Good Investment?
60 percent of the Americans live from paycheque to paycheque and have no savings. That is in the wealthiest country of the world.
I am saving and investing. I had a conversation with a relative invited to one of Ms J's lunches. He is an investment adviser for Bank HaPoalim. He discouraged me - Bank HaPoalim shares will fall after paying the dividend. My daughter, who has just completed her second degree in these things, is also against stocks. They have been indoctrinated that a private investor should not take risks and invest in the stock exchange directly but only through managed funds.
But funds have no alpha and are expensive. I had invested in what was considered the best international fund, in European industries, and lost more than 50% before the Bank liquidated that fund. Other funds I had in Israel were also liquidated after large losses. I dont understand how the myth of managed funds survives and thrives. People is being intimidated and seeking security in gurus. Economic papers write extensively about funds as legitimate, advantageous, public service businesses. Managing one's savings is considered almost a crime.
Psagot Investment House recommends Poalim and says it is 30% undervalued. Israeli banks are overcapitalized (7.5% required by the Central Bank) and very profitable. Israel's economy is growing (7.5% last quarter), exports are thriving, the shekel is strong and foreign exchange reserves are ballooning. The bank will pay out 50% of its profits as dividend (5.5% according to Psagot). I am buying.
Pic.: Pessach today: The kindergarten of kibutz Nir Eliyahu (near Kever Benjamin City) escaping from Egyptian slavery. The Bible recounts five rebellions demanding from Moses to lead them back to Egypt.
Follow Up: Just when I was thinking how smart I am, Moody's rating agency downgraded all Israeli banks and my fav Poalim is now A-2. The reasons: Israeli banks have large fixed costs, excessive mortgage loans and low profitability.
I am saving and investing. I had a conversation with a relative invited to one of Ms J's lunches. He is an investment adviser for Bank HaPoalim. He discouraged me - Bank HaPoalim shares will fall after paying the dividend. My daughter, who has just completed her second degree in these things, is also against stocks. They have been indoctrinated that a private investor should not take risks and invest in the stock exchange directly but only through managed funds.
But funds have no alpha and are expensive. I had invested in what was considered the best international fund, in European industries, and lost more than 50% before the Bank liquidated that fund. Other funds I had in Israel were also liquidated after large losses. I dont understand how the myth of managed funds survives and thrives. People is being intimidated and seeking security in gurus. Economic papers write extensively about funds as legitimate, advantageous, public service businesses. Managing one's savings is considered almost a crime.
Psagot Investment House recommends Poalim and says it is 30% undervalued. Israeli banks are overcapitalized (7.5% required by the Central Bank) and very profitable. Israel's economy is growing (7.5% last quarter), exports are thriving, the shekel is strong and foreign exchange reserves are ballooning. The bank will pay out 50% of its profits as dividend (5.5% according to Psagot). I am buying.
Pic.: Pessach today: The kindergarten of kibutz Nir Eliyahu (near Kever Benjamin City) escaping from Egyptian slavery. The Bible recounts five rebellions demanding from Moses to lead them back to Egypt.
Follow Up: Just when I was thinking how smart I am, Moody's rating agency downgraded all Israeli banks and my fav Poalim is now A-2. The reasons: Israeli banks have large fixed costs, excessive mortgage loans and low profitability.
Labels:
Investment
Sunday, April 17, 2011
67 years ago
At his time of the year, 67 years ago, the Jaszbereny getto (pic) was set up. By August the whole Jewish community of 700 persons found itself in a sealed cattle wagon on the way to Poland, thus ending the Jewish saga in Jaszbereny. In Hungary, it was not a secret nor a violent operation; the legislation was carefully formulated, voted, authorized and published. Looting was severely punished and Treasury officials took inventory of the goods and honest receipts were granted. Everything was duely registered and I can follow almost from day to day the loss of civil rights, of freedom, the degradation, and the death of my family and people.
Labels:
Jews
Neanderthal Look
This is the best image of a Neanderthal I found.
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Miscellaneous
Saturday, April 16, 2011
Saudi Arabia's Warfare Capability
Now that Saudi Arabia is almost at war with Iran, what is its capability to wage war? Its tribal army must be superior to the Hashemite and the Ghaddafi levels, which is respectable. However, the Saudi infrastructure seems fragile and unable to operate under the least attack. Its population of 5 million in 1960 has expanded to an estimated 25 million. About 70 - 80% of its drinking water is supplied by large desalination plants powered by oil burning electricity stations (pic: the Suaiba cogeneration complex). There is little reliable information about these facilities but obviously they are undefensible against missile attacks, missiles which Iran possesses. Maybe Patriot batteries could be deployed, and our Iron Dome thingies.
Also, should a war situation develope, the foreign population which runs everything in the Kingdom will evaporate. Saudi natives are unprepared to man refineries, power plants, desalination plants, banks and so on. Therefore, any armed conflict will create panic and chaos, and suck in more organized countries.
If the rise of the price of oil and the consequent recession is to be avoided, this intervention will have to be very fast. The world cannot afford a prolongued conflict, so the USA (there is none other out there) should be forced to take over Iran in a blitz, co-opt its civil and military organizations and secure oil dispatches. If a semi-senile old Jew like me thought this out in a Pessach morning, it is probable that there is already such a plan in some Pentagon drawer.
PS: In fact, should Iran attack us and we react, the same plan would have to be implemented.
PSS: Having those Iron Dome thingies in the neighborhood makes us, in some way, the protectors of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Well, I dont know, I stop because we are going to feast on Ms J's scholent.
Labels:
War
Friday, April 15, 2011
Bahrain, a Saudi Province
Unable to stand up to the Shiite rebellion, the local ruling family decided to integrate itself to the Saudi royal tribe. The Saudi army has occupied Manama and is building up its naval power. The Saudi army has not participated in a war in eighty years, but it has the potential to equal the Jordanian army, which is not a joke. The scenario for a war is being built up, followed by the breakup and occupation of Iran. The logic of the events leads to the strengthening of Israel's position in the Middle East.
Labels:
War
Study Tour
I took a civil engineering class to a study tour in pumping stations and wastewater treatment plants. It is Friday preceding Pessach and only the hardiest participated.
Labels:
University
Lord Homungous in Lybia
In Road Warrior 2 Lord Homungous (pic) and his Sacred Band (in the Greek homoerotic sense) ruled the desert. In these days, Steve Sailer has re-discovered him fighting in Lybia, that is, playing the role of democracy-loving rebels. Humongous appears to have moved ahead with the fashion and now wears WWI Austro-Hungarian green uniform and a tablecloth stolen from an Italian restaurant that he calls keffiyya. He has acquired a new arsenal of red-headed penil-erectile weapons. Remembering his RW2 experiences such as that gyroscope bombardment with poisonous snakes, this time he has ensured NATO's air cover.
Labels:
War
Siamo tutti pronti a morire
To pressure the Hamas government of Gaza to release some political prisioners, an opposition Jihadist group kidnapped a collegue of Rachel Corrie, the Italian Vittorio Arrigoni, and tortured him to death. Misguided Vittorio was a member of the International Solidarity Movement (ISM) dedicated to serve as human shields against the Israeli army. Compare international media reaction to the accidental death of Rachel and the assessination of Vittorio.
He had written that he was ready to die. Yet, one can imagine his surprise when beaten and tortured by his idolized Palestinian freedom-fighters:
He had written that he was ready to die. Yet, one can imagine his surprise when beaten and tortured by his idolized Palestinian freedom-fighters:
Siamo tutti pronti a morire per questo ideale stupendo che è la libertà di un popolo oppresso.
Ma ovviamente, nessuno di noi è realmente pronto a morire.
E' sempre troppo tardi per morire ed è sempre troppo presto.
Si marcia per la libertà e ormai è come camminare davanti ad un plotone di esecuzione assetato del nostro sangue.
Ci spiace solo morire così, in silenzio.
Chiediamo troppo?
Restiamo Umani
Vittorio Arrigoni per Infopal.it
Gaza city.
Labels:
War
Thursday, April 14, 2011
Muhammad's Two Jewish Wives
Muhammad had two Jewish wives among the twelve he married after his first and principal wife Khadija’s death. In fact, he had more Jewish wives than most Jews. Following a battle during which Muhammad was abandoned by his Jewish allies, he chooses Rayhana from among the captives as a wife. His next Jewish wife was Safiyya, “from the family of Sarah”. Mohammed included in his religion a great number of Jewish customs learned from his wives. I googled Mohammed but the pic feels wrong, I cant put my finger on it why.
Labels:
Jews
US Dollar Inflation
According toShadowstats, US inflation is approaching 10% p.a. The estimate appears low to me. The dollar is sinking like the Titanic.
Labels:
Investment
Japanese Earthquake Protection Techniques
The Japanese have made interesting advances in this subject. Basically they are injecting grout or silicon into liquefiable soils and building drainage pipes for enclosed spaces under buildings. I am not a soil engineer, but here a soild study is required for every civil engineering project but I have never heard of soil correction in water infrastructure.
Labels:
Water
Earthquake Readyness: Water Infrastructure Protection
Israel is getting ready for a large earthquake (we are near the active Syrian-African Fault) and buildings are being reinforced. However, there is no thought on protecting water and wastewater infrastructure. The Japanese earthquake shows that well-built structure may survive but the infrastructure doesnt, making impossible to live in the area. The pic shows the well-known effect of soil liquefaction and the expulsion of hollow structures such as manholes and pipes. "Susumu Yasuda, a professor at Tokyo Denki University, said that codes for sewage systems that address liquefaction were introduced in Japan only in 1981, which left older reclaimed land areas such as Urayasi—where the first construction began in 1964—vulnerable." So there are ways to design infrastructure to resist earthquakes but they are unknown in Israel. This is an interesting and unexplored field. So many things to do, so little time...
Labels:
Water
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
The Late Great City of San Francisco
The young (under 17) population of the City of San Francisco is 107,524 today, according to the latest U.S. Census Bureau figures. And declining. A rapid estimate says that San Francisco will shrink to about 700,000 in the next generation. What will happen to the gigantic infrastructure that former generations built up? It will be unnecessary and unmaintainable, and will decay like Detroit. Or it will serve and enjoyed by another race, that will wonder about the giants that built those canyons, bridges, pyramids and other monuments. No one will remain to lament the disappearance of those millions who live to enjoy and have no interest in the future.
There is much intelligence and creative work going on today in San Francisco. Pity that it will soon fall silent and forgotten.
There is much intelligence and creative work going on today in San Francisco. Pity that it will soon fall silent and forgotten.
Labels:
Miscellaneous
Tuesday, April 12, 2011
Unexplained Predictability
Falkenblog has a very interesting post on some unexplained regularities on the stock exchange (and he doesnt risk a hypothesis). His post is relevant to my observation of the appearance of some salient regularities on TASE. After my Friday class we have a weeklong Pessach vacations, if I have time I'll try to understand the phenomenon. Most I am afraid of a trick - someone is leading people to believe that it an easy way to make some maravedis, then break them all without vaseline.
Labels:
Investment
Monday, April 11, 2011
The Vodka and Sausage Diet
In Communist East Germany one famous method for losing weight was the "Vodka & Sausage Diet". This diet was never evaluated scientifically and there are no verified success stories. It had been popularized by the pop band Amor und Die Kids - "Hit the Blue Poisoner, clap your hands on your liver". The Vodka came in a blue bottle. East Germans drunk more than anyone else. Under Communism everyone had a guaranteed job and salary. People enjoyed a relaxed lifestyle of cheap drink and free sex.
They had learnt about Capitalism's inhumanity, but they did not really believe it. When it did come, it was a terrifying shock.
They had learnt about Capitalism's inhumanity, but they did not really believe it. When it did come, it was a terrifying shock.
Labels:
Vodka
Falken's Wisdom
I like Falkenblog because its rare virtues: clarity, sincerity, generosity. From his latest post:
1) Simple valuation metrics like P/Es in stocks, the current roll in futures, or yield spreads between currencies, help predict returns. They are easy to measure so try to have them on your side.
2) Momentum, chasing past returns, is not a bad strategy. That is, invest more in asset classes and strategies that have been working over the past year.
His mind works like mine, in "proprietary" images. I mean, he uses associations, parables and metaphors extracted from the most unrelated and surprising realms. Example: "the stupidest financial decision since Esau traded his inheritance for a bowl of soup" and links a child picture book. I used to say similar things but stopped because made people uneasy - like children, people demands the sterotype over again and feel that unknown associations are bizarre.
Post Script: I just returned from the bank and ocurred to me that Israeli investment advisers invariably advise exactly the opposite of what Franken says. Astonishing! They advise to sell the shares that gained recently, and buy those that went down and are "cheap". My own instinct is to re-inforce what is winning, like in a war, but they say that a stock that has reached their imaginary targets must be sold. About momentum investment - they advise the opposite strategy. They think like bad gamers and lotto-players, they think that a number that has not appeared for a long time "HAS TO" show up. And people goes by their advise. Since I like to think of myself as a secret statistician, I know that Israeli investment gurus are pushing bad advice. Why should they do it? My advisers are always pushing me to sell and buy, to be active, and always find reasons to do so. Their only interest, I conclude, is to maxim the number of operations, to increase their fees. They dont really care about what I buy or sell, they want movement, activity. Their success is measured in activity, and not about actual results for the client, which no one - not even the client - can calculate.
1) Simple valuation metrics like P/Es in stocks, the current roll in futures, or yield spreads between currencies, help predict returns. They are easy to measure so try to have them on your side.
2) Momentum, chasing past returns, is not a bad strategy. That is, invest more in asset classes and strategies that have been working over the past year.
His mind works like mine, in "proprietary" images. I mean, he uses associations, parables and metaphors extracted from the most unrelated and surprising realms. Example: "the stupidest financial decision since Esau traded his inheritance for a bowl of soup" and links a child picture book. I used to say similar things but stopped because made people uneasy - like children, people demands the sterotype over again and feel that unknown associations are bizarre.
Post Script: I just returned from the bank and ocurred to me that Israeli investment advisers invariably advise exactly the opposite of what Franken says. Astonishing! They advise to sell the shares that gained recently, and buy those that went down and are "cheap". My own instinct is to re-inforce what is winning, like in a war, but they say that a stock that has reached their imaginary targets must be sold. About momentum investment - they advise the opposite strategy. They think like bad gamers and lotto-players, they think that a number that has not appeared for a long time "HAS TO" show up. And people goes by their advise. Since I like to think of myself as a secret statistician, I know that Israeli investment gurus are pushing bad advice. Why should they do it? My advisers are always pushing me to sell and buy, to be active, and always find reasons to do so. Their only interest, I conclude, is to maxim the number of operations, to increase their fees. They dont really care about what I buy or sell, they want movement, activity. Their success is measured in activity, and not about actual results for the client, which no one - not even the client - can calculate.
Labels:
Investment
Sunday, April 10, 2011
"Money Time"
Rafael, Israel's armament development company, is smiling. The latest Grad and Kassam rockets fired from Gaza were successfully intercepted and destroyed in the air by the "Iron Dome" anti-rocket system. They say it is worldshaking technological development and there is tremendous buyer interest.
I am putting a virtual flower at the foot of President Reagan's portrait. He had stunned me with the concept of his anti-missile system that ultimately caused the USSR's collapse. I thought he had been intimidating the enemy with an impossible weapon. No president since him has any vision. Pic.: Operators of the system. BTW, I served in the same branch, with the same old M16s, but this is a new generation.
I am putting a virtual flower at the foot of President Reagan's portrait. He had stunned me with the concept of his anti-missile system that ultimately caused the USSR's collapse. I thought he had been intimidating the enemy with an impossible weapon. No president since him has any vision. Pic.: Operators of the system. BTW, I served in the same branch, with the same old M16s, but this is a new generation.
Labels:
War
Saturday, April 09, 2011
Fabulous Wealth
The main beneficiary of the current world economic setup is the Middle East. The region's exports rose 30 per cent to $916 billion (6 per cent of the world total). The UAE alone exports more than large and important countries like India, Brasil, Australia. Its bonanza is no product of effort, hard work, prudence.
I feel... what? that it is unfair.
I feel... what? that it is unfair.
Labels:
Investment
IQ is Good
When all other variables were statistically controlled, each additional IQ point predicted a 1% decrease in risk of death. Also, IQ was the best predictor of the major cause of death, motor vehicle accidents. Vehicular death rates doubled and then tripled at successively lower IQ ranges (100–115, 85–100, 80–85; O’Toole, 1990). Higher IQ has been associated with better outcome for disease, due to healthier lifestyle (smokers have a much lower average IQ, 7.5 points lower) and better management of medical conditions and medication.
Labels:
Miscellaneous
Syrian Revolt
Israeli press is silent about the ongoing revolt in Syria. We have mixed feelings: the two-generation old dictatorship has ensured quiet in the frontier, which is all we want. On the other hand, the lack of some kind of legitimate opposition creates underground extremist movements, most probably anti-Israeli. Syria is ethnically diverse and people seems to have accepted the bargain offered by Assad of mild dictatorship in return for stability. With disorder in Lebanon and Iraq, most Syrians may be reticent to engage in actions that might lead to instability and open ethnic war as in Egypt, Lebanon, Iraq, Bahrain. The ignorant press attributes the revolt to the drought, yet winter grain production appears normal.
Labels:
Water
Friday, April 08, 2011
Power of Attorney to the Rabbi
We Jews eat unleavened bread during the Pesach week, in remembrance of our ancestors flight from Egyptian slavery. The pic shows a legal document that empowers Hungarian rabbi Oberlander to sell all the "hametz" (bread products) owned by the signer. It escapes me how the first thing managed to evolve into the second.
Labels:
Jews
Rockets Intercepted
Our evil enemies shot an anti-tank missile into a yellow school bus. That was no mistake, a yellow school bus. Like in the Itamar killing, these animals have no problems in killing children. Today they shot a barrage of missiles on a town, trying to kill civilians. For the first time, the Iron Dome anti-missile system was used and it shot down the incoming missiles. It looks like the American Patriot anti-missile system, but it is faster. I think that no other country has a defense system like this, South Korea and Japan will want to buy one.
Labels:
War
It is time for the black man to eat
South Africa's ruling party, the African National Congress (ANC), has a motto: "It is time for the black man to eat". I heard it yesterday.
Labels:
Miscellaneous
Thursday, April 07, 2011
Don't Panic
For several weeks now, at the end of the trading day, prices collapse. Today it (and me) lost 3% in the last hour. Who is the robot trader that does it? What is it doing? Why?
Labels:
Investment
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