Vanishing Patricians

We know of about fifty patrician clans in the fifth century B.C., but by the time of Caesar, in the later first century B.C., only fourteen of these had survived. The decay continued in imperial times. We know of the families of nearly four hundred Roman senators in A.D. sixty-five, but, just one generation later, all trace of half of these families had vanished.

By Augustus's reign (27 BC-AD 14) only about 15 patrician families were left, and by Trajan's (AD 98-117) just six. In Constantine I's time (AD 307-337) the title ‘patrician' had come to mean anyone who held high office in the imperial court.

Why they vanished? (1) Inbreeding. They had few children and many of them were defective. Like the Hapsburg dynasty. Pic.: Sulla. He suffered from severe pains in the legs. (2) Like today, educated classes frequently didnt marry and had children. In Imperial Rome, only the proletarians had two or three children.

Irani Navy Threatens USA

Pravda.ru writes that Iran (a quasi nuclear power) will send Navy vessels to the US to build up an open sea presence along the East Coast. "Just like the global hegemony that is present near our marine borders, we ... also plan to establish a strong presence near U.S. marine borders," Iranian Navy Commander Habibollah Sayyari said, according to Iran's state news agency.

It must be a joke, this cannot be real.

Halachic Questions

Rabbi, is it allowed to kill lice on Saturday?

No, it is forbidden.

Rabbi, and a flea?

It is allowed.

Rabele, why?

The lice will be with you tomorrow but the flea may escape.

Obama's Charisma Lost on Wolfgang

President Obama has given the Europeans a harsh lecture on the dangers of their debt. Offended by the unsolicited advice, Germans have suggested the US get its own house in order first. Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble curtly rejected Obama's criticism. "I don't think Europe's problems are America's only problems," said Schäuble, "It's easy to give advice to other people."

The Greek Play

Some Greek Government bonds are selling at 30 to 40 cents a dollar. If the swaps arrangement is implemented, its price will go up to 70 cents. If it is not, a 50% "haircut" is expected. Anyway, a 10% low-risk in three weeks seems reasonable. If the sky falls down, the speculating vultures will be fried.

Problem for Monsters

China Hush illustrates the ogre Li Bhao who had built a dungeon for his four sex slaves. His wife believed he had a second job while in fact he was visiting his secret harem.

Underground hollow structures like a dungeon for sex slaves, an empty water reservoir or septic tank, etc. pose the engineering problem that during the rainy season the freatic level rises and the structure emerges from the ground and starts to float.

Say Li Bhao's harem was a cubic structure built of concrete (2.4 ton/ cu.m.), each side 4 meter long with walls 10 cm wide. The Chinese Frankenstein had four females 50 kg each imprisoned below and he himself weighted 70 kg. The top level of the cube was at ground level. When the rains fall and wet the sandy soil, the cube starts to emerge. The alarmed monster decides to park a cement block on top of the cube. What is weight of the block that will ensure that his secret will never emerge to the light?

Daughter

Happy New Year to All!

The Ethnic Composition of Israel

In this New Year, Israel has 7.8 million inhabitants, similar to Switzerland and other small European countries. 5.8 M are registered as Jewish (nationality), 1.6 Arabs and 0.3 as "Others" (for example, non-Jewish Russian immigrants). There are in addition some 0.3 illegal mostly Sudanese and Erythrean immigrants, may be more.

36% of the Jews (2.2 million) are Ashkenazi Jews born in Europe, America and South Africa. 37.7% of the Jewish population is Israeli, a category that includes Jews born in Israel (40% of them, maybe, are Ashkenazim, 40% North AFrican, Iraqi and other non-European, and about 20 - 25% are mixed. This last category is growing very fast. My estimate). 25.1% of the Jews here were born in Asia and Africa.

The most interesting trend is the steady increase in births. There were about 180,000 births in 2010, a demographic increase of 2% per annum. The Jewish woman has 3 children average and this numer is INCREASING (the Arab, four and it is DECREASING). There is a steady trend to equalize the features of both sectors, and the Arab sector is fast integrating into the general population even to the point that the younger generation is adopting its language (Hebrew) and culture. The integration cannot be full because of the Rabbinate forbids conversion and intermarriage (of course, human race being the sex crazed maniacs we are, will screw Neanderthals, Denosovians and !San pygmies, in fact, anything walking in two feet and four too if he can catch it. What I am saying is that the cross-interaction is intense, white hot).

Time is working for us. Populations in the Middle East are in transition, and Lebanon, Turkey, Tunisia, Algeria and other are already below replacement. In a few years Egypt and Jordan will inevitably reach that stage too. What makes Israeli Jews different? That here the priestly "tribe" (the cohanim - our rabbis and scholars) have not given up the power they had in traditional Jewish communities. In America, only the Orthodox rabbis see themselves as power persons, leading and teaching the Am Ho-Oyretz (the people of the land, that is the garden variety Jew like myself) while the Reformist "rabbis" think they are social workers.

Pic.: London's Chief Rabbi the Lord Sack. Quote:

"Europe, at least the indigenous population of Europe, is dying. That is one of the unsayable truths of our time. We are undergoing the moral equivalent of climate change and no one is talking about it."

"Albert Camus once said, 'The only serious philosophical question is why should I not commit suicide?'. I think he was wrong. The only serious philosophical question is, why should I have a child?"

Message to the Big Brother

I remember the times when people used to say "This is not for the telephone". We tried to analyze the clicks and background noises to identify when our conversations were monitored. Under communism people disappeared for saying things on the phone or writing something in a letter that the regime considered dangerous. Solzhenytsin, for example, was sent to the Gulag for a jovial observation about Stalin in a private letter to a friend. What we dont realize is that today all of our communications on the phone and the internet are open and easily monitored by hundreds if not thousands of organizations, using keywords or other statistical methods, building complex profiles of what we are and with whom we communicate and what are the probabilities that they could sell us something or that we vote for somebody. No one is disappearing in our democracies, but I'm sure careers and opportunities are deflected by our image built by the computers.

My uncle never wrote a letter, probably because he was thinking that anything could be used against him in some unknown future. I have almost no pictures of him. He is dead and his fears (if he had them, I dont really know) resulted unfounded. Today, the computer profiling is so developed that no harm can fall on a decent, moderate, well-intentioned person like me. There are people out there who think differently.

Erdogan Blockading Syria

After sinking in his mind that we are getting away with blockading Gaza, Erdogan decided that his honor demanded that he too embargo someone. He seized a Syrian-flagged ship and announced that will intercept any arms shipments headed to Syria. Well done, Lord Horatio, well done. (Buenos Aires's rumor mongers may have observed he has a "complejo de inferioridad". Dont we all?)

Israeli Officers Course Test

The pic shows a wooded fort surrounded by a 10 m wide and 50 m deep trench. You have nothing you could use but a 50 m long rope. Get yourself and your soldiers into the fort.

The Water Saving Obsession

American war poster. It makes no sense to me, what war industry ever suffered from water scarcity in America? The poster seems to reflect Americans's deep Puritanical heritage, of hating waste in general.

China, then and now

I took this pic in remote mountains in an advising trip on water supply. See the single corn plants in each depression among the rocks. There was a drought and the peasants were blaming the Government. When I mentioned forestation, an old peasant said to me (with the officials present): Chairman Mao told us to clear the trees and plant corn instead. I had read all of Mao's works, but no Chinese ever wanted to talk about him: It was not fear, it was passionate hate. The terrible famine under Mao was too recent. In those years the CIA did not worry about China overtaking America but if China would be able to feed itself. The pic shows a stone water reservoir for rainwater, with Communist propaganda attached. Rotten field mouse carcasses floated in the stinking water.

I did the Wall too; now my daughter is climbing the very same steps. I hope she learns Chinese.

Cooling Down

That swimming pool project tired me more than I realized, so yesterday I slept a long siesta and then at 800 PM drunk 200 ml cheap vodka and forgot about all. At 400 AM woke up: It is cold outside and the first winter storm is almost on us. The light is flickering: the storm is affecting the electricity supply.

A famous Mizrahi (Levantine music) entertainer had built a luxurious house with a swimming pool plus a large jacuzzi, and a cascade in the front garden, which was like a tropical jungle with banana trees and exotic plants. If you had seen Ayesha Ghaddafi's home you get the idea of the Levantine architectural taste. In every corner there were remnants of grass smoking parafernalia. As happens, the municipality had refused the building permit and its lawyers were pressing the judge to demolish it. The project had passed through the hands of several architects and engineers till it landed in my unsuspecting computer. As always, I gave a naive (moderate) estimate.

Without doing much on-site investigation, I prepared the "garmushka" (the slang for engineering plans) on the basis of existing material and submitted it. It was rejected. I have good relations with the city engineer and he suggested that my plan was wrong, the swimming pool, etc. had been built on municipal infrastructure. I "chewed" the problem for a week, but there was no trace of them anywhere - not in the municipal drawings nor on the site. I demanded that the contractor who built the house (without plans) meet me at the site, and I made a complete investigation. I discovered several municipal manholes artistically built over and municipal sewage pipes under the swimming pool. There was a beautiful cascade - over electricity lines and near communication cables, etc. One would not suspect it, as I did not suspect that treacherous dog biting me. Obviously, someone had erased the pipes in municipal drawings, I was given "doctored" measurements, and was misled into submitting and signing a false presentation.

Since the date of the sentence was approaching, I was put under much pressure to get the municipality to freeze the process. My solution is to protect the infrastructure with concrete. The contractor will have to dig near and partly under the pool. I consulted with the city and they said: You are the engineer, it is your responsability. We only want to avoid damage to our infrastructure. I consulted the Client, and he said "Excellent job! They will grant the permit and we will say the project was done. City bureaucrats never leave their air conditioned offices."

My friend the city engineer suggested that the crooner's problems may not be over. The neighbors had been complaining about the noise, specially that cascade.

The Cantaloupe Outbreak

The CDC said 55 people in 14 states have now been confirmed as sickened from eating cantaloupes, reporting four deaths and 35 illnesses in 10 states. The death count could go even higher. Health officials have said the number of illnesses and deaths could continue to grow because the incubation period for listeria can be up to a month. Unlike many pathogens, listeria bacteria can grow at room and refrigerator temperatures. The FDA and CDC recommend anyone who may have one of the contaminated cantaloupes throw it out immediately.

The median age of those sickened is 78.

Scaring Ourselves to Death

The Fed announced a rather routine financial operation of exchanging long-term debt by short-term papers, or vice versa, it makes no difference for the matter, and the world reacts with panic, hystery, throwing everything off and running for shelter.

Cohl wrote about this mass thing:

The point isn't that the panic is constructed of whole cloth but that the kernels of disturbing truth in them are touted disproportionately and repeated ad infinitum; for example, in the case of the Chilean grapes, two grapes were found to contain nonlethal amounts of cyanide. But the media-spawned legend, rather than the truth, had passed into public consciousness, and eventually the FDA pulled all Chilean fruit from U.S. markets. Why does this kind of thing happen, over and over?

Media madness and simple human psychology fuel the fires of paranoia. Alarming headlines ("Breast Cancer Strikes One in Eight Women,", U.S. News and World Report) are derived from misunderstood or misquoted statistics ("Breast cancer strikes on in eight women at age 95," National Cancer Institute). So Greece, a marginal country, has problems in paying back its debts, but why should Europe and the world sink into depression as a consequence?

(pic: Stampede victims of the Duisburg Love Parade Festival, July 2010.)

Dawn in Kever Benjamin

The birds are still sleeping but the call of the shofar is heard in the neighborhood. At 500 AM is the first minyan for the morning prayer and then the religious practice the shofar, which is not a musical instrument. It is only a long and hollow sheep horn and the sound is produced by the lips. The calls are not harmonious nor pleasant, but rough and bizarre in the dark.

At the distance, I hear the azzan from the Palestinian village across the separation wall. The muezzin calls the faithful to the early morning payer and I follow the lines:

Allah u Akbar, Allah u Akbar
-- God is Immense, God is Immense

Ash-hadu al-la Ilaha ill Allah - Ash-hadu al-la Ilaha ill Allah
-- I bear witness that there are no gods but God

Hayya la-s-saleah - Hayya la-s-saleah
-- Hasten to the prayer, Hasten to the prayer

Time to work and finish that swimming pool project. Yesterday a treacherous dog passed nonchalantly by me and threw me a fast bite. Just to say "Hi J! Know that I dont like you".

Warning to Readers in California

I ordered some textbooks from Amazon and received the following warning:

Please be aware that items in this order may be subject to California's Electronic Waste Recycling Act. If any items in this order are subject to that Act, the seller of that item has elected to pay any fees due on your behalf.

So if you are reading this blog in California, please be aware that YOU dear reader may be subject to California's Electronic Waste Recycling Act but I have elected NOT to pay any fees that you may be subject to that Act.

What to Do? Has Game Theory an Answer?

Six months that TASE and the rest of the world is extremely uncertain and nervious, any rumor of Greek default produces a 10% fall and any vague pronunciamiento from the Grand Duke of Lichtenstein that they will stand by the EU turns the market mood to super-optimism. Apparently this situation will not resolve itself soon because Europe has no organizational instruments to make up its mind and take decisive action.

In this situation of prolonged uncertainty, what is the way: (1) ignore volatility because nerviousness, without outside feedback for a time, will surely unwind and normalize, (2) do nothing and stay on the sidelines till the fog clears up (losing opportunities and precious life time), or (3) prepare for a dramatic crash, because prolongued nerviousness is unbearable for human beings and must be resolved by individual and collective nervous collapse, followed by gradual rebuilding of confidence. What to do?

Tyco

Tyco (and Siemens) are the most dynamic companies in my field: water and related permitting business. Now Tyco is breaking up in three parts. I would like to have more time to learn and understand the dynamics of growing by conglomeration and then splitting.

Wolfgang

The Germans have this honesty (or brutishness) thing, they say what they think. “We don’t think that real economic and social problems can be solved by means of monetary policy,” said German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble at the meeting of EU finance ministers and central bank governors. “That has never been the European model and it won’t be.”

A fascinating concept. Wolfgang thinks the Untermenschentum must work harder and pay their debts. Just as Germans do. No easing nor stimulus. Somehow I cant see Obama agreeing.

Hedging in Shanghai

My daughter (center) writes that Shanghai is chock-full of young American Jewish financiers (pic?). The other girl may be German (these days they come in several colors), and that big head may be the God of all Hedge Funds. Originally I understood the studio wanted her for mosque design, because Israelis are world experts in the subject, but there is no market for Islamic architecture in China. She does bus stations.

Turkey preparing for Peace Operations

Turkey never recognized Greek Cyprus and is decided to erase it. Now Texas-based Noble Energy, operating under license from the Greek Cypriot government, had moved a drilling rig into the area. Turkey has announced its retaliation. May be Turkey is threatening us so we shall not dare to interfere with its coming attack on Cyprus (sorry, the Cyprus Peace Operation; in turkish: Kıbrıs Barış Harekâtı).

Having the presence of Turkish troops in the north, British bases and a UN peacekeeping mission, Cyprus has been defined by the UN as "one of the most densely militarised areas in the world" (UN Secretary General Report, S/1995/1020, 10 December 1995).

Italia berlusconiana

Now we know that Italy was on autopilot for the last decade. About 100,000 taped phone conversations from the Prime Minister's home have been published and the main subjects are (1) organization of bunga bunga parties, and (2) complaints that the Pope and foreign visitors are preventing him from spending time with his female admirers. At one point, Silvio reveals that there are 40 women staying in his house who like it so much that they just won’t leave.

The Mood in Israel

Soon we shall be celebrating the New Year and fasting for our sins. The nights are cooler and tomorrow is my last class of the summer semester. Everything is quiet in the media, the government is saying nothing to avoid worrying the public. The mood, however, is quietly tense: we are all worried by the savage assault on Israel's Embassy in Cairo; we are worried because of the increasingly bellicose declarations of Turkey's Erdogan; and the Army, the Police, the settler defense associations are all preparing to face the Palestinian mass uprising announced to take place following their Declaration of Independence. Many reserve batallions were called in for service. One morning my daughter phoned from school that she was not coming home: her שכבה (age group) was being bused to the "bakum" (an army base) and conscripted. The bourse is confident that nothing serious is happening and it is moving North.

Update: Our mood is improving. Erdogan seems finished with us and is aiming his bolts against Greek Cyprus, scheduled to be the EU's next President. "I consider it degrading to sit at the same table with the Greek Cypriots ... we will have to see this issue (Cyprus issue) concluded by 2012."

Solar purpura

It occurs only on areas of chronically sun damaged skin, such as the back of the arms and hands.

In Israel, keep out of the sun.

The Balcans Emptying

Employable Greeks are emigrating to Australia, Canada, Qatar, Germany. Bulgaria's active workforce is half of ten years ago. History is not ending, on the contrary, things are changing all the time. Greece of my children will be a different country. Pic.: Qatar. The streets are paved with gold.

Market Spam

The chart (from Nanex blog) shows how many quotes it takes to get $10,000 worth of stock traded in the U.S. for any point in time during the trading day over the last 4.5 years. Higher numbers indicate a less efficient market: it takes more information to transact the same dollar volume of trading.

Quote traffic, like spam, is virtually free for the sender, but not free to the recipient. The cost of storing, transmitting and analyzing data, increases much faster than the rate of growth: that is, doubling the amount of data will result in much more than a doubling of the cost.

What is happening that there is a lot of fake parties in the market, collecting information or hunting for an error. The first problem of any bona fide trader is to identify who is really interested and who is just wasting his time. The way of combatting is to have fixed prices: no bargaining.

Lulu

Egypt is judenrein, free of Jews. But a generation ago when Egypt was a cosmopolitan prosperous Mediterranean country, it had a happy Jewish community. I got to know them well in their exile, as penniless refugees dispersed all over the world. Improbably, this modest, intensely family-orientated people found its voice in Lucette Lagnado, Lulu, a quiet girl of my generation. Like others, her family settled in one of those old and poor apartment buildings of Bronx, unforgettable for the static electricity shocks I received when I touched anything. She describes her father in America:

My father never did find an employer in New York, though he did go to work every day. I still remember him setting out each morning, carrying the yellow manila envelope that he used instead of a briefcase, along with a large brown box perched under his arm.

He had become a tie salesman. His "office" was the streets and subways of New York, where he offered prospective customers dazzling ties with labels that said "100% Silk" and "Made in France" or "Made in Italy." They were none of the above, but the customers were taken by his charm and perhaps also moved by the sight of this dignified old man. And he occasionally made a sale.

I know because, as a little girl, I would sometimes watch as he button-holed potential customers on the street, or on the BMT line, and open the box to reveal his treasure trove of ties.

The bits of money that he earned helped to pay the rent, put food on the table and, not least, repay the debt of the Queen Mary (they had purchased their passage to America on credit. J). By the summer of 1979 the debt was down to $39. He made two payments, one in July and the final one, for $20, in September. An agency worker stamped a receipt "Paid in Full" and marked the balance due: "$.00."

I think the bureaucrats who wavered about letting Dad come to the U.S. should feel, on balance, pleased with their decision. He turned out to be an awfully good credit risk.

I could not tell it in such dry, matter of fact style. It is too emotionally loaded for me.

Kweku

Kweku. He stole 2 billion dollars. The Bank that employed him lost 4 billion dollars of its market value. He was trying to follow the Swiss Frank before it was pegged to the Euro. For Kweku, a "honest" error; for the Swiss, a cultural blind spot. Their Clients would have moved their life saving to the Jewish usurers on the corner if they knew that those arrogant Swiss had Kweku investing their money.

Ezra

Confess to the God of your ancestors what you have done, and do what he wants. Separate yourselves from the people of this land and from your foreign wives.

Apparently, Ezra was referring to the priestly tribe alone, and his initiative was directed to dismiss the Chief Priest Jozadak, whose clan was extensively married to local women.

The priesthood was also purged from families who were unable to prove, after the Babylonian captivity had ended, that they were descended from the priesthood before the captivity began. They were required to wait until priests in possession of Urim and Thummim were discovered; unfortunately, the Urim and Thummim had by then been lost.

The Magic of Leadership

The markets have calmed down as there is a plan to solve the European debt crisis. Under the program, the Fed provides dollars requested by the ECB. The ECB distributes that money to commercial banks in Europe. There's no cap on the dollars the Fed can provide. The Fed will receive euros to hold in return for the dollars and will get interest payments on the dollars it provides the ECB. The Fed's exposure will be to the ECB, not to the commercial banks. And the ECB will be obligated to repay the Fed in dollars.

What is the ECB - European Central Bank? It is the weak financial arm of the powerless EU. Why they dont use euros instead of dollars? Probably because Germany fears inflation of its currency. The risk of inflation is then transferred to the US dollar. The people has more faith in the dollar than in the euro.

The concept is that there will be more liquidity and interest rates will fall. Greece, Italy and others will be able to pay back gradually their debts if it stops growing at the usurious rate of today. The concept is, in other words, religious. If we all believe in God's goodness and that it will be all right, it will. If we doubt, we surely are all going to hell. It all comes down to changing the people's state of mind. Like Will E. Coyote who can walk in the air while his illusion sustains him. Magic.

Exactly like in wars. When we all have faith in God favouring our side and we are convinced that we are going to win, we win. When there is a panic, massacre ensues. Basically it all depend on faith and leadership.

Some Basic Truths

Prof. Hamilton is my favorite economist. He can see through monetary issues. For example, macroeconomists have often used Japan in the 1990s as an example of bad monetary policy. The fact is that Japan was losing its export markets of its traditional manufacturing industries to Taiwan, Korea, etc. No monetary manipulation could change this situation.

America's prosperity was always based in its superabundance of easily exploitable natural resources. For many decades America dominated the oil markets. Now, environmental regulations are limiting its agricultural production, its manufacturing and mining industries. Hamilton gives the example of the destruction of American rare earth mining, which delivered that market to the Chinese.

Thinking matters.

Keynes ist nicht tot

"Keynes ist nicht tot. Er liegt aber vorübergehend im Koma."

This is German humor. (This is an Order! Laugh!) German bankers are happy because they heard that Greek loans will be recycled.

I reviewed my last month's operations. For a change, it seems that I took good decisions.

Killer Antelopes

An Air Force base near a Natural Reserve in the Negev Desert has been suffering repeated losses of guard dogs. In the morning, the dogs (tied to a wire) were found without eyes, with deep wounds caused by a sharp object, and some, dead. The mystery has been solved: antelopes had been entering the base (to forrage kitchen waste) and were stopped by heroic guard dogs. The dogs lost.

Liquidity Seizure Correctly Predicted

A year ago, Paul Schulte correctly predicted:

"As Europe's problems unwind, liquidity is going to seize up. As liquidity seizes up, multiples are going to contract. Equities are not necessarily cheap. What we are having is a sort of liquidity seizure because of the dislocation in the euro," Schulte said. "If we are not careful, that could tip us back into recession again."

Schulte's views contrast with that of the International Monetary Fund, which said the European debt crisis has been contained and that it still expects global growth of about 4.2 percent this year. Still, Schulte said the euro may continue to slide as "debt restructuring in Europe looks inevitable".

He was right. Schulte was recently hired by China Construction Bank's investment banking unit CCB International.

Greek 1 year Govt Bond Yields 125%?

The Bloomberg chart shows that the one-year Greek Government bond yield is well above 100%, that is, investors have few doubts that Greece will not pay. The situation is dramatic, no one is ready to lend an euro to Greece: if Europe aka Germany does not rescue Greece, the Euro is kaputt. On the other hand, a play against the Greek default would pay double. The Greeks hope that the regional crisis (Erdogan vs Cyprus, Israel, Iraq) may persuade the Europeans and Americans to financially support Greece, as they would not wish to have a Western state collapsing against an aggressive Turkey, in an overall unstable geopolitical environment.

Audaces fortuna iuvat; Courage, to me!

Loss of Energy

I am feeling tired these days and pensative reading obituaries of people younger than myself. Living in a family of females has shut down my testosterone production. That may be one of the reasons, in addition to the vodka, that I did not have a heart attack yet as my father.

American Business Fighting to Survive

American business is fighting back, so may be here in Israel we also have a chance against the bureaucracy. The National Petrochemical & Refiners Association (NPRA) sharply criticized Thursday’s speech from President Barack Obama on creating jobs in the US, asking for relief from “unprecedent and unwarranted regulatory burdens”. Instead of wasting billions of taxpayer dollars on subsidies that line the pockets of so-called ‘clean energy’ companies that can’t stay in business and can’t keep workers employed, President Obama should .. ‘stop throwing regulatory roadblocks and tax increases in our path.'

"Texas energy company Luminant announced that new Environmental Protection Agency regulations are forcing it to close several facilities and lignite mines, which will result in 500 job losses. The company blames the Cross-State Air Pollution rule, which requires Texas power generators to make “dramatic reductions” in emissions beginning on January 1, 2012."

Another Panic Day in all the Bourses

French Banks are being attacked and the Euro is in free fall.

Sur fond de crise des dettes, la Bourse de Paris plonge de plus de 4,5 %. Crédit Agricole, Société générale et BNP Paribas dégringolent (are slumping) de plus de 10 %.

Investors in Shanghay and Tokyo are selling at any price, trying to salvage anything they can. A bad day all over the world, not excepting Tel Aviv.

At this point the Euro is the prison of nations, condemning Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Ireland to decades of ruin. Ten years ago, Argentina broke the chains of dollar parity that had plunged that country into a 30s scale depression. The economic rebound has been stunning.

Suicide Day

Today is World Suicide Day. Suicide has increased 45% in the last two generations and is now the highest death risk for young people all over the world. Korea, Japan, China, Kazakstan, Hungary, Finland, Estonia have exceptionally high suicide rates. I know people who make dramatic scenes menacing to take their lives but never do, so I learned not to take it seriously. Most suicides are linked to the potent psycho drugs we are all taking these days. But those drugs are unknown in China. So what I know.

Drama in Cairo II

Assault on the Embassy of Israel in Cairo. The mass seems to have the capability of self-organization for effective action. I dont know mass psychology but they dont seem a disorganized "mob". Israel thanked President Obama for saving the lives of the six Israelis trapped in the Embassy.

Spiegel on America's Decline

"Today, following all the Bush-era tax cuts, the US is a deeply divided country in social terms. The gap between rich and poor is almost as great as it was in the days of oil barons and steel magnates in the last century. Five percent of Americans buy almost 40 percent of all consumer goods sold in the country.

The country is at war with itself. It has a Congress where there is perpetual conflict between the right and the left -- and where they don't even want to talk to each other when the threat of a national bankruptcy looms."

Drama in Cairo

Friday night, the mob assaults the Israeli Embassy in Cairo. From the Foreign Ministry in Jerusalem, Netaniyahu is following the events.

Renew

Half Sigma is fascinated with the film Logan's Run, where the Carrousel ceremony "renews" people. He thinks he discovered something, yet "May G-d Renew" is a traditional Jewish prayer. It can also be understood as "Bring Us a New Month". See the clip if you are into Hassidic music or Ashkenazi prayer.

Ten Year Ago

In an outburst of solidarity following the World Trade Center attack, Yasser Arafat donated blood to the American people. Arafat was a known homosexual and an AIDS carrier, later dying of the disease. Since 1977, there is a ban in the USA forbidding gay men to give blood as an attempt to combat the AIDS epidemic. The picture of a terrorist criminal.

Big Elephant, Moi?

Ibrahim Kalin, chief adviser to Erdogan, writes:

The Netenyahu government’s refusal to issue a formal apology has led to a swift reaction from Turkey. Prime Minister Erdoğan ordered the implementation of five measures against Israel. “No country is above the law,” said Foreign Minister Davutoğlu, referring to the big elephant in the room, which is the Israeli exceptionalism in regional and global politics.

Eine weitere Zickzack-Woche

Another zigzagging week at the bourses. Netvision merged and I was paid some money which I invested in Israel Chemicals Industries stock. Last month, this fertilizer company had lost a quarter of its valuation because the Ministry of Environment declared that it has to pay for the rehabilitation of the Dead Sea, which is drying up. POT, Potash, the world premier fertilizer company, is prospering, so ICI must be cheap. I dont believe in the populist declarations of politicians. The State barks but ultimately, it has no bite. I bought.

La Piel

I sacrificed an evening to go with wife to a cultural event in Tel Aviv where Almodovar's The Skin I Inhabit film was screened with a long, unending psycho-babble lecture by some liberal arts academician(ess). There had been coffee and cakes too but we were late and missed it.

Visually, the film is very impressive and beautiful. It took me ten minutes to stop reading the subtitles and start to follow the Madrid Spanish of the film, which sounds different from the Buenos Aires Spanish-Italian of the sixties I speak. The psycho-babbler spoke about the message of the film which is the meaninglessness of gender, sexual, etc. identities in the modern world. Well, yes, things are not as used to be.

No Happy End

In Hungarian magazines of the thirties there was a lot of talk about Baron Hatvany who seems to have been a great patron of the arts. The Hatvany and Weiss were two large Jewish families united by marriage forming the wealthiest industrial-financial conglomerate of prewar Hungary. The Manfred Weiss Iron Works on the island of Csepel employed more than 100,000 workers and the Hatvany sugar mills supplied all Europe.

I'm bringing up this now because of the legal fight for the return of Baron (pic) Mór Lipót Herzog's art collection, which is valued over 100 million dollars. The collection was looted by successive regimes, and those found in Germany have been returned and slowly the Hungarian State is also getting used to the idea of giving them up to the heirs.

But wait a minute. Who are the heirs of this large and extremely wealthy Hungarian Jewish clan? Three persons: David de Csepel, a middle aged American, and two elderly half-Jew Italian ladies, daughters of a member of the family that found refuge in Buenos Aires. That's all.

In this pityful way ends the fantastic history of the large Jewish family that almost by itself created half of Hungary's industry. I feel that these three "heirs" are totally unrelated to their Orthodox ancestors, they are everything they were not; in my opinion, their great-great dad's art collection should be left in European museums.

While it was Adolf Eichmann who caused the disbandment and death of many members of this great Hungarian Jewish family, yet I feel that their leaving the Jewish people was the final cause of their extintion. Money is temporary, the Jewish people is eternal.

About that Vision Thing

Five years ago I participated in the formulation of the international call for offers for Israel's first seawater desalinization plant. The lowest price in those times was in Florida - about 1 dollar per cubic meter of desalted water. So we were all happy when we got offers of 50 cents. Our experts, Adam Consulting, had predicted offers above the Florida price. I worried about the offer that seemed to good to be real, but my sage bosses said "J, dont worry for those businessmen, they can take care of themselves". But how could it be that they were signing a 25 years contracts to supply water to the State of Israel at a losing price?

The mystery is now solved. In fact, the 50 cent price did not last a month. Soon it was discovered that crude desalinated water was highly corrosive and could not be conveyed through existing pipes, it had to be hardened first. The hardening and the additional price was soon agreed. As the production continued, new refinements were added and the price soon grew to the average 1 dollar of today.

Israel's rainfall has been decreasing since and manufactured drinking water is becoming critical. Today, the State of Israel is begging the three large water consortia to increase production. They are saying "No". What is happening in fact is that the original 25 years contract, written by a large (and arrogant) team of very expensive lawyers hired by the Government, is being re-negotiated. The Government bureaucrats are in a weak negotiating position as the drought appears to be permanent. No one remembers the original 50 cents per cubic meter price, which is not even history as nobody has time to search for the original documents (six years is a long time, the Netzivut HaMaim organization has been re-organized three times since, it has a different name, and the people retired, promoted, transferred, sacked, or just lost interest in their jobs and turned vegetables).

What about that Vision Thing? Six years ago, I suspected that the consortia people were building on the possibility that the 50 cent price would not last. I could not see anything on what to base that calculation. But they were courageous and had that Vision Thing. Today, producing desalinated water for the Government is one of the most profitable oligopolies in Israel. And getting better every year.

British Strategy of Economic Growth

The Economist tells us the long agonizing city of Liverpool's strategy to attract Chinese investment. They built a museum and are holding an exposition of imperial era chinoisery. That strategy worked with the J family: we paid to see the Museum of the Beatles. Good luck with the Chinese.

Getting Old Gracefully

Fig Season in Samaria

One of the benefits of the truce we are enjoying with the Palestinians is wild figs. At the entrance of Ariel are trays full of small figs, light green and dark brown, freshly harvested from wild trees. There are no sellers as they hide from the police. I stop and choose two trays and take it to my car. Suddenly appears a boy or an old man, and we start the traditional bargaining. He fears the police and is pressed to agree my offer of 10 shekels for tray. The figs are small and not as sweet as the cultivated varieties. They get eaten one by one while driving, only one of the trays arrives home.

Greek 10 year Bonds Yield 19.3%

No country can pay such usury interest rates, it most surely leads to default. On the other hand, if Germany backs Greece, then it may be a fantastic "distress" kind of investment.

Gen. Eyal Eisenberg: War in Winter

Gen. Eisenberg said: "Arab Spring? After each spring comes winter. There are growing probabilities of a total war next winter". Frightening.

The Economist Thinks Ahead

A very good article in The Economist:

A university education is still a prerequisite for entering some of the great guilds, such as medicine, law and academia, that provide secure and well-paying jobs. Over the 20th century these guilds did a wonderful job of raising barriers to entry—sometimes for good reasons (nobody wants to be operated on by a barber) and sometimes for self-interested ones. But these guilds are beginning to buckle. Newspapers are fighting a losing battle with the blogosphere. Universities are replacing tenure-track professors with non-tenured staff. Law firms are contracting out routine work such as “discovery” (digging up documents relevant to a lawsuit) to computerised-search specialists such as Blackstone Discovery. Even doctors are threatened, as patients find advice online and treatment in Walmart’s new health centres.

I'll add later, when I have time.

The Palestinian State

It appears that the UN will recognize Palestine. It is not completely meaningless, but when Kosovo is a state, then the concept has been devalued. It is not like in 1947. Recognition is almost worthless: some EU countries do not recognize Kosovo - Spain, Greece, Cyprus, Rumania, Slovakia. So what?

People Selling Everything

The large demonstration yesterday (450,000 people) demanding to punish the rich and lower the prices of real estate and food, added to the declaration of cold war against us by Turkey, is causing a total collapse on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange. Stocks are in uniform free fall - TASE 5 is down 4-5%. According to The Economist table, TASE has lost about 21% this year, the most of all stock exchanges. Once more, my portfolio is (-) minus. One wondedrs what is with Turkey: They were not accepted in the EU and now they are intent on remaking their pre-Kemal Empire. That means Kurdistan (even Iraqi Kurdistan), Syria, Lebanon, Egypt, Palestine... etc.

"Supporting Lybian Reconstruction"

By now it should be clear to all that Lybia was attacked by colonial powers France and Britain with the goal of exploiting the place's natural resources (sweet oil). And it is no secret:

French Foreign Minister Alain Juppé said he thought it would only be reasonable if French companies benefited from preferential access to Libyan contracts given that Paris, together with the U.K., led the foreign military offensive in Libya. "The NTC has said very publicly that, in the reconstruction effort, it would give preferential treatment to those who supported them," Mr. Juppé told French radio RTL. "That seems quite logical and fair."

Reconstruction? What reconstruction?

Another question is where are Europe's leftist, anti-imperialist forces?

How to Embarass Israel

Driving to the Dead Sea, near Kfar Edumim, one sees a collection of miserable tents and some black goats. Sometimes the goats cross the highway followed by a boy dressed in rags. They are Beduin nomads, squatting on public lands. They keep their distance from Arab villages, as the fallahin hate them.

An Italian architect designed and built for them a "green" school, made from used tires and mud. He wrote articles about his invention and became famous among all the green architects of Europe. There is a large environmentalist movement in Europe.

The laws of Israel allow "temporary" buildings on public or private lands, but when walls are erected and a roof, the structure becomes "permanent" and requires a long process to be legalized. Of course, the Italian architect, who publicized the project as a romantic "School in the Desert", did not ask for any building permit, nor did the Beduins. The State of Israel was about to bulldoze the illegal structure, but Jewish volunteers (financed by European governments) started a public and legal battle against the process, with articles and happenings in Europe, all illustrating "Israeli inhumanity". Yesterday, a judge forbid the levelling of the famous green monument till the State builds a new school in its place. With my tax money, of course. It was a brilliant plan, I have to admit it, we were shamed and defeated.

Malema Re-Educated?

Last year, the governing party in South Africa ordered the dissident Malema to attend political-education classes for three weeks and to undergo anger-management training. I find fascinating the mix of standard Communist Party disciplinary method with the Western psychological remedy of dealing with antisocial elements.

Unfortunately, it didnt work and not only because the correctional measure was never enforced. Last week Comrade Julius Malema has been charged again with various violations of the ANC Constitution, including "bringing the ANC into disrepute through his utterances and statements on Botswana and sowing divisions in the ranks of the African National Congress". Obviously, a more effective method must be applied.

Confidential Financial Advice

Sehr geehrter Herr J,

Überwiegend grün - so sieht der Blick auf die Marktindikatoren heute aus. Nur Gold und VDAX sind rot, sprich im Minus.

Das Büchersommerbuch vom Montag "Weltkrieg der Währungen" geht an Thomas Blohm aus Künzing, einem der ältesten Orte in Bayern, wir gratulieren.

Mit freundlichen Grüßen aus Frankfurt, Edda

Excerpt: "The growth of debt in the West and the rise of China in the East create an explosive situation: While the dollar loses its status as a reserve currency and is fighting the Euro to survive, Beijing's "people's currency" yuan becomes the weapon for China's rise. The struggle for dominance in the global economy of the 21st Century will be fought with currencies. The money war is raging in the world. Be prepared and protect yourself."

I first heard financiers talking among themselves when I was 12, maybe, and could not believe their banalities. Today, analysing the expensive advice provided by financial institutions to their clients (see example above), I cant avoid the conclusion that that is it, there is no higher intelligence in the finance world. Pity.

Doubling of Prices

I am inundated with orders, almost all my offers are being accepted. What is happening is that the prices have doubled in the last six months and I have been hesitant to rise my prices. I also noticed that the demands and rejects by the regulating bureaucracies are becoming impossible to comply with, they find once and again new issues and no project ever ends and the clients never receive a final, definitive approval. I am being asked to answer questions about ptojects that I thought had finished three years ago - and I cannot ask for more money for them and I am seen as the responsible for them as I am signing the drawing. Some engineers refuse to continue working on long-finished projects, and the owners are forced to find a new engineer and pay him additional.

The reason to this new perfeccionism is the apparition of new profession: journalists, lawyers and NGOs ("Good governance" and so on) that are making a living by combatting the "capital and power corruption". These "justicieros" find cases where some obscure regulation - specially in the environmental area - was not fully enforced, meaning to the ignorant that a corrupt functionary did not protect the health and security of the people or of the environment, presumably for some dark personal reason.

These persecutors demand the enforcement of all regulations in an incorruptible, absolute, totalitarian manner. The smallest "friendliness" toward the businessman presumes corruption. Businessman can mean a young entrepreneur opening a felafel stand in the street. No one, not even large corporations, are able to operate legally. We are cought in an impossible vicious circle of regulatory terror. I too need to increase my prices to reflect this new business environment.