In my mind, I see the US surging ahead this year, leaving behind Europe and China. Why? Because hubris has seized the rulers of Iran and fall they will. They proclaimed their intention to close the Strait of Hormuz and shown that they mean it.
Should they be provoked to provide a casus belli (such as taking prisioners like the British sailors a few years ago), America and Britain will launch a blitzkrieg and destroy Iran's naval and air forces, occupying a wide strip along the Strait.
The price of the oil will rise 50%. Guess who will benefit? America, of course, since it is self-sufficient in oil. Europe, Japan and China will suddenly be imposed a heavy energy tax.
Iran argues that international laws suport its case. "Article 25: The coastal State may take the necessary steps in its territorial sea to prevent passage which is not innocent."
It is Iran who is being innocent and naive. Astute lawyers (and battle groups) will turn Iran's argument on its head. Yes, and Ahmedenijad himself too.
1 comments:
Not to be a naysayer, but the US is one of the world's largest oil importers. A 50% rise in oil prices would probably throw us into a deep recession. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if people here started eating each other.
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