Egypt, the largest Arab country, has collapsed and is functioning no more. The Sinai pipeline, which also supplies gas to Jordan, has come under attack 12 times since president Mubarak was toppled in 2011. Egypt is unable to continue supplying and earning money from its gas. Syria is in civil war, half of the army deserted and fights the regime. This turmoil has knocked out our nearest enemies, leaving standing only Iran.
24 comments:
What has replaced these regimes is worse for you. Mubarak was not your enemy. Assad likewise is not your worst enemy, nor was Ghaddafi.
These new arrangements come to you, courtesy of the "Christian" in the White House.
Anon.
Democracy has arrived. Now, Egypt will become Norway.
Well this is just in time, since Norway has already become Egypt.
Anon.
I dont think we have much or any influence on the political developments in Arab countries. On one hand, chaos is good as no country in such disorder can wage war. On the other hand, we could do business with dictators, they were honest and reliable (after receiving their 20% cut in a Swiss Bank, they delivered what was agreed). Egypt in its current impotency cannot even deliver the gas and is losing billions each month. If the chaos extends to the Suez Canal, America and NATO will have to intervene. This time we are not participating.
I hope Egypt violates the Peace Treaty made in 1979, giving Israel a reason to retake the Sinai Peninsula, that lebensraum should be put to good use.
What's the general opinion on that in Israel?
The Sinai is a miserable desert inhabited by a few wandering Bedouins. Unless it has oil, its only value is as a physical buffer.
Personally I made several tours in the Sinai in the early eighties. I loved it and I miss it. Israel made a great sacrifice in giving it up. It is very rich in resources: oil, gas, beaches, mountains, minerals, history. On the other hand, it is just real estate, not worth a drop of Jewish blood.
Sharm el Sheikh has tropical reefs that are of incomparable beauty - you take a few steps off shore and it is as if you are inside an aquarium with all sorts of brightly colored fish swimming in bright blue water - it is unreal. But I agree not worth one drop of Jewish blood - they can keep their damn fish.
Egypt announced today that they were arresting a bunch of Americans for interfering with their political process. Obviously anti-Americanism plays to the domestic audience - all those billions we sent them bought us nothing, less than nothing. Then again the Egyptian public never saw that money - it mostly went into Mubarak's Swiss bank account. The US will be forced to respond by cutting off aid and the Egyptian generals must know this. Once the aid is cut off they will be free to abrogate the peace treaty. I think they may be going for the Falklands angle - trump up a war and unite the country behind them. It's hard to believe that they could be so stupid but then again not so hard given who is involved and their lack of other options.
K
I loved it and I miss it. Israel made a great sacrifice in giving it up. It is very rich in resources: oil, gas, beaches, mountains, minerals, history.
I thought Sinai was only brutal desert?
If it is not all desert, it would make a good colony.
Sinai has tourism and mineral/gas potential but it's pretty much a desert and can't really support that many people. It looks likes the surface of Mars and is probably about as good a place for a colony.
K
Sinai is a desert, but techology mada that irrelevant. Once 100 km distance meant 3 days of walking, today is an hour in car. Water is carried by pipes to everywhere. The beaches are wonderful, the place can be made an agricultural powerhouse, like it was in Yamit. The dry climate is very nice to live in.
A little bit disconnected.
Tremendous capital investments are now being made into the north american and european energy sectors.
Through fracking, deep water extraction etc and reduced consumption in north america, and through integration with the russian energy sector in europe it seems autonomy is being sought.
( The russian energy sector is in the middle of very large changes. It's a german- russian huge capital and technological endeavour to massively reduce its use of gas and switch to nuclear energy and coal. In areas where this switch is uneconomic to do german companies took over directly the power plants in order to upgrade them and increase efficency.)
And this developments convey the image that ... a defeat in the gulf is a real posibility. And what the americans are doing right now is just trying to gain time in order to prepare the retreat.
it is pretty clear they lost in Irak. Just hanging on for some time but their presence in central asia is pretty much over.
The pakistani nuclear sector is growing very fast, as are the means of delivery. Soon, maybe next year , gas deliveries from Iran will start making the country sustainable. And their nuclear umbrella will be large enough in order to protect iran and the sunni kingdoms. Of course we all know that the sunni kingdoms and the siite organisations are hmmmm enemies. As are pakistan and india.
But the economic growth - tremendous rates the last few years - were hmmm fueled by the capital flowing from the gulf. As are the money for the pakistani military developments.
But the energy will come from hmmm surprise surprise Iran.
What pakistan and india lack are energy and capital. Both of which are abundant in the gulf. Just that the US-NATO take the right now. And sunni kingdoms/ islamic whatever shiite iran are acting in concert in order to help both of them.
I am trying to raise your interest for the subject in order to read your very interesting comments.
I am saying that somehow a lot of actions look very fishy , like apparently opposite groups act hmmmm in concert.
The post was pretty long and touched a lot of issues.
Regarding one of them, in an atempt to detail a bit:
"Tehran and Islamabad formally signed a multi-billion-dollar gas contract in June 2010, based on which Iran's natural gas will be pumped to Pakistan from the South Pars gas field in the southern province of Bushehr.
Iran has already constructed more than 900 kilometers of the pipeline, which is to carry 21.5 million cubic meters of natural gas per day to its eastern neighbor.
The US sought to block the deal and use Tehran's nuclear program as a pretext to exert more economic pressure on Iran, which has the world's second-largest gas reserves after Russia.
Islamabad, however, has made it clear to Washington that the pipeline project is essential for Pakistan to meet its energy needs."
And paki is now almost invulnerable due to a rapidly increasing nuclear complex and because it has 2-3 00 000 hostages, 100 000 of them americans.( the expeditionary forces bottled up in afghanistan)
All this military development was financed by what is supposed to be irans mortal enemy - KSA. It seems to me that what is becoming a nuclear juggernaut - the pakistani complex - is a condominium made sustainable by saudi money, iranian energy and chinese technology. All of them exist in reality, no conspiracy theory involved , the theory appears if you start thinking there is a conection between the different players. It seems pretty illogical to think they act eratically and have no idea about what is happening.
And the fact that the US started to invest cyclopic amounts of capital in a desperate attempt to get breathing space in the energy sector start to seem pretty logical and rational. They are loosing the fight for control of eurasian oil an gas. They already lost central asia, the caucasus - never had them but tried - half of the gulf and the other half is hmmm moving against them and trying to connect to asia.
If you add the russian moves in Venezuela the picture gets pretty bleak. Looks like the russians are redrawing the energy map of the world and the US with all the smart weapons and propaganda aparatus it possesses can't do anything about it.
teo, America owns the Middle East.
teo, America owns the Middle East.
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4185677,00.html
" A European diplomat based in Pakistan, permitted to speak only under condition of anonymity, said that if Israel attacks, Islamabad will have no choice but to support any Iranian retaliation. That raises the specter of putting a nuclear-armed Pakistan at odds with Israel, widely believed to have its own significant nuclear arsenal."
Not something to surprise anyone, if you consider that the only chance for pakistan to survive are the energy supplies from iran.
And the nuclear complex is financed by KSA who hmmmm.... wants to destroy iran. And continue to leak american boots and be very happy that the americans take all the money - except current costs, pretty generous they are - and give back treasury bonds. If you believe what they say. Problem is they act hmmm completly different from their own rhetoric. Created a nuclear umbrella and now generously extending it over iran.
Oil is a fungible commodity. The world price is determined by overall quantity vs. overall demand and once that is determined, it makes no difference who produces the oil and who consumes it. Conversely, even if the US doesn't consume one drop of Gulf oil, a cut in the supply would affect the price, so we need to ensure that the Gulf oil remains on the market.
I don't think a defeat in the Gulf is likely. The US remains the undisputed superpower. Its carrier groups are formidable and no one else has anything close. With stealth bombers and drones, the US can reach out and touch you anywhere on earth. Even Obama the great pacifist was not shy about double tapping Bin Laden. The Iranians rattle their swords (this plays very well for their domestic audience and they hope will maybe scare us off) but they know that their military would not do any better in a head to head contest than Saddam's did. The Ayatollahs have always been very careful not to put their fingerprints on any attack on the West - it is always done thru proxies with a layer of deniability, never directly.
The Iranians and Gulf Arabs cannot drink their oil - in order to monetize it they have to sell it. Pakistan is not a big enough market by itself and is too disorganized to industrialize or to become a regional hegemon. Indians are hated heathens and don't want to get in bed with Muslims anyway. Iran and the Sunni Arabs and Pakistanis hate each other. The West doesn't even have to play divide and conquer - the Muslims will take care of the divide part on their own - they are incapable of unification (thank God). I don't see the scenario playing out in the way you describe.
K
A European diplomat ....
If I had to take bets on whether a European diplomat has read a situation in the 3rd world correctly, I would say that it is a better bet to always assume the opposite of what that diplomat believes. How does this fellow know that Pakistan will have "no choice"?
K
By the way, the least reassuring sentence in the English language is, "no worries mate, Pakistan has got your back." I'm sure the Iranians will be greatly emboldened by the thought that Pakistan will reliably protect them just as Pakistan has been a loyal American ally.
K
Ahmedenijad: "How good is to have reliable friends you can trust. Pity we have none."
Syria was a reliable ally for Iran. Too bad Assad is past his "sell by" date.
K
J: Of course america owns the middle east. just like the golden horde owned moscovy. Until it didn\t own it any more.
All operators in the middle east operate under occupation or under the real threat of psysical destruction by the US military forces. So their behaviour is distorted by this reality.
Direct frontal confrontation with the US is of course suicidal. But in the mean time US got defeated in irak, is in the middle of another more catastrophc defeat in central asia - they will be completly chased out from that area -, a huge and autonomous nuclear arsenal was created in Pakistan.
the Arabian peninsula was unified militarily and politically - GCC, under KSA leadership and military control. Pakistan is going to be directly conected to Iranian energy system etc.
And think that all this and many more happened under ocupation or under the threat of destruction, happened in the shadows or under all sort of pretexts.
The energy resources from the area we talk about are eastern asia/s only chance of becoming a modern prosperous industrial area. But for this to happen the anglo empire has to be defeated. If this will happen or asia's rise will be brutally stopped as it happened in the 19th and 20th century we will see in the next decade.
of course important protectors like pakistan will receive a droplet of energy and capital from the sunni kings and the siite mullahs and politicians if the gamble will be succesfull. Never ever will pakistan be the receiver of the bounty from the middle east. India is a net receiver of capital investments from the gulf. The area where the sheiks can deposit their huge wealth - the part they managed to save from the american and british treasuries and investment funds - if they manage to claw it back from the anglo. The capital fuelling the very large growth - like 10% per year- rate in India comes right now from the Gulf.
I am not saying it is precisely like this, but it's pretty much hard not to notice certain developments, which are suposedly unconnected. Well that is what I do not believe in the least. That KSA created the world 5th nuclear arsenal by mistake, that Iran in trying to make it sustainable by mistake, that KSA occupied the Gulf by mistake etc. For all actions there are good rational explanations, but when you look at the larger pictures they pretty much become irrelevant.
teo
If I understand it you are predicting that the current rise of Eastern Asia (China, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, etc.?) will be brutally stopped by AngloSaxon military aggression, like it was in the past.
I dont know. China is behaving like an exemplary member of the international community, even helping the EU, so it will be allowed to emerge and become stronger. No one in Eastern Asia is giving any cause to the AngloSaxon powers to attack.
I dont know how you can say that America was defeated in Iraq. The USA took Baghdad in a week or so.
Yeap something like that - eastern asia will not take over. China is under complete iron blocade. It's called " the ring of fire of the pacific".
China is behaving examplary , because they have a very weak position. And has to buy peace - to pay the danegeld to the dominant tribe , or protection tax in mob language - and buy some kind of limited frindship from different barbarian tribes -"even helping the EU".
Anglos will not attack. Not in the conventional way. They are sofisticated and smart. They arm the rings of the chain - japan, SK, taiwan, vietnam, malaysia, philipines, australia, India etc. And invest in navy and air force. Did the same with Germany. if chinese are smarter then germans will be allowed to live. If not hmmmm well too bad for them.
Yeap US took Bagdad. At tactical level it was obvious they were able to win. But their persian oponents were strategic players. Using very limited investments the invaders were kept under control and defensive. They were cancelled. Made unable to control anything.In the end they had to retreat, persians were playing with them, like a cat plays with mice.
The same happens in Afganistan. With limited investments Pakistani army defeated completly the invaders. They are under siege in their own bases and pay protection taxes to be let to eat. We won't see an escalation. pakis are logical and smart.
Present status when they have hundreds of thousands of mercenaries kept hostage in central asia is very good for them. they get protection money not to crush the mercenaries. US can't put pressure an their fast growing nuclear complex. As long as they are kept hostage the emperial legions are not part of reserves capable to atack or move anywhere. US ground troops are anihilated, is like they don't exist.
Like adolf's army group north stayed bottled up in the kurland after operation bagration. As long as they stayed there it was like they didn't exist at all. And even worse. They had to be supplied. Instead of helping the Reich, they consumed pretious resources.
Of course right now US tries to change the rules. And fight the persians at a higher strategic level the the one Iran is able to acces. By afecting capital and energy flows. Loosing a 8 year war against them made US strategists a little smarter.
Wars are not like WW1 and WW2. Those are very very rare exceptions.
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