This morning I went to see a new urgent project in the Azrieli Towers, in Tel Aviv (the statue stands at its entrance). A Hungarian born young chef has bought Sb... Pizza and is transforming it into a fancy restaurant. He desperately needs the designs for Sunday morning. Too much stress for this old man, but I need the money to pay back the bank loans. The bank had said that they would merge old loans at 3% with new loans at 1.5% In fact, I have now both! The Stock Exchange is sinking, Europe is poisoning the financial world.
14 comments:
Loans are something pretty dangerous this times.
I managed to predict the financial crisis - it was pretty obvious the real estate bubble will pop taking the financial worls with it - but failed to predict what was going to happen afterwars. Inflation was an obvious answer and it is happening under our eyes.
But well interest rates were supposed to increase and they got reduced. I was completly wrong in oredicting this, and so the fact that I downsized and ended all loans was not much of a business.
I stopped trying to understand what will happen next, decisions are political with absolutely no connection to economy.
But having loans in such fluid times is prety risky anyway. Now it seems that from a political/administrative point of view interest rates will have to be kept low, no connection to inflation, but hmmmm who can say it will last?
PS. About inflation of course the indices are low officially, but it's just a detail. It depends on what you base calculations on. Prices increased and it's not hard to see if you go to a supermarket and compare to what you saw few years ago. It becames clear jsut by this empirical analysis that officila numbers are bogus.
M. King Hubbert - the guy who brought us the theory of peak oil - wrote about his but I was not as informed then.
That when we reach the plateau inflation and low interest rates follow. Because barrels are finite and paper dollars are not.
But I had no way to know that back then. As economist wrote world was awash in oil. And that was well a sigh of peak - it happens when we are awash in the stuff - as we were and ... it happened.
The analysis is useless from a personal point of view. Inflation is obvious, but how the interest rates will fluctuate is not. They will be negative but that is not necessarily usefull for us in short term.
More here for anyone interested:
http://mkinghubbert-technocracy.blogspot.com/
Greek default is coming.
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/greece-not-lehman-20-ill-show-its-much-much-worse
But I’d wager more than one of them will opt for default. And if you think European bank exposure to Greece is understated, you don’t even want to know how bad exposure to Italy and Spain is (to give you an idea, the German bank I referred to earlier, again by its own admission, has total PIIGS exposure equal to 60% of its equity).
Folks, the European banking system is in huge trouble. This won’t be Lehman 2.0. This is going to be something far, far worse. Some of these countries are already sporting unemployment of 20%. What happens when their largest banks go under?
Also, remember that the EU is:
1) The single largest economy in the world ($16.28 trillion)
2) China’s largest trade partner
3) Accounts for 21% of US exports
4) Accounts for $121 billion worth of exports for South America
It’s clear the EU is already heading into a recession without a banking crisis hitting. What do you think will be the impact when Europe as a whole experiences its own “2008” only on a sovereign level?
We are literally on the eve of a Crisis that will make 2008 look like a picnic.
Thanks Annymous for your optimism. All that was known three years ago when the crisis started to unravel. Yet we are plodding on. May be it will pass? Give us a hope...!
Hmmmm the system looks to be brain dead.
The soviet one died and continued by inertia from the 70s for almost 20 years. It's pretty obvious our present social - economic structure has reached a limit and is blocked. We just go by inertia and I think fear. Nobody wants to see a reorganisation - at least the sane ones don't.
It would mean a hast reduction of complexity in the first stage and then a complete reorganisation.
In popular term it means economic collapse this fast reduction of complexity, that's how we would see it.
My hotest desire is to be completly wrong - talking about optimism. Having children and a middle class life style makes me completly unhappy about a possible system breakdown. But it looks inevitable.
No end of the world anyway, just a system restart. Only problem is our lives will be affected a lot. In an unpleasant manner.
Agree with theo. A Soviet-style death and rebirth is the most probable outcome of the European Union.
One very unexpected side-effect of the end of the Soviet cycle was the emergence from nothing of a handful of Jewish "oligarchs" holding immense resources. Although Jews had an important part in the creation of the Soviet state and its early times, but the late Soviet era they have been screened out and Jews in Russia were total outsiders, holding no central political, administrative or academic position.
Yet suddenly they emerged as owners of the oil companies, factories, lands, etc.
There are some one million Jews in Europe. Jews will surely emerge as the owners of the new Europe, to the point that antisemites (there will be some) will say that European Union's collapse was a Jewish conspiracy.
We Zionists propose to stop this cycle and end the Diaspora. Jews should come to Israel to build and be rebuilt.
Pretty unpleasant thoughts you have J. Unfortunely I have to agree it's high probability for them to become reality.
In Russia the problem got solved. Jews don't have political power anymore and are no longer dominant in the corporate sector. But remain the most wealthy community in the federation and own a lot of the assets. As a multi-etnic empire russia can solve without extreme violence and genocide this kind of problems. It was similar to the soviet solution. And in academic positions jews remained on top of the soviet system, maybe not all the deans and rectors but a lot of science workers and proffesors. Just the political and adminstrative positions were reflecting demography more or less.
(I worked with some israeli companies. Owner are emmigrated jews from the country. Speaking the language etc. But they came back as israelis. Rebuilt as you might say.
Speaking of which I thought of something. I liked working with them - not very profitable anyway, but pleasant. Very clear minds, it involves direct discutions , very short ones and it's all set.
All of them had military experience some a lot of it.
Amuzingly they are the closest people - I met - to the definition of the superior race. As it was brought to us by Adolf - the theory I mean.)
As for europe to solve a problem that might appear as you showed well it might be unpleasant. The political and administrative abilities which Russia shows are not present at all on continental europe - except france I think.
About a "A Soviet-style death and rebirth is the most probable outcome of the European Union."
Well I was referring to the western economic structures as a whole. Actual system does not work anymore in the US also.
Western societies abilities to direct financial and capital fluxes are broken. Last 20 years were a soviet style misallocation of capital. System is brain dead. Reform is impossible it seems. So more of the same is the name of the game untill total break-down. No need to worry what happens afterwards, we have absolutely no clue. Personally I'd have loved to see current events through a history book, not to live through them.
What scares me even more is that after stable prosperous amoral times, lacking ideological consistency, comes the reverse. Ideology comes back in force and an age of heroes begins. And that is something I definitly would want to avoid. I'm thinking that in 20 years from now I will regret I didn't emmigrate to south america. I'd bet I will regret, but it doesn't help me at all.
I am paying for my sins. I wished to live through heroic times. And God will grant my wish. Just that I was 20 years old and dumb and now I want to cancel those stupid youthfull ideas but it's too late.
There is much wisdom in the saying that you have to be very carefull what you ask for because it might happen. LOL.
Give us a hope
Fitch has upgraded Iceland!
theo,
Russians have fantastic political and administrative capabilities, holding together such an enormous and diverse country. Even their former subjects - Georgians, etc. - do not dislike them.
About re-built Russian Jews, they got their hardness in Russia. My former boss used to tell how he was publicly humiliated when he declared his intention to come to Israel. They held a "hate day" where the whole university condemned him for leaving the country and had to pay back the cost of his education. Those experiences are very educational.
Different times. Same in all eastern states.
Leaving the workers paradise was betrayal. Others would have feared much worse in a similar case. Jews were privileaged not to be harshly punished , ethnic russians would not have been so pampered.
I have thought about " There are some one million Jews in Europe. Jews will surely emerge as the owners of the new Europe, to the point that antisemites (there will be some) will say that European Union's collapse was a Jewish conspiracy."
With rare exceptions they are very secular and extremly mixed. I believe reactions are atenuated. They have local colour right now. In general abilities were kept - smart and active - but they are no longer so foreign. Identities are no longer so clear.
In case of problems some will go to israel, but not many due to identity problems.
Even Adolf himself accepted those married to germans. and mixed ones were usually accepted as normal germans.
Someone studied this: "According to historian and Israeli Army and U.S. Marine Corps veteran Bryan Mark Rigg, up to 160,000 one-quarter, one-half, and even full Jewish men served in the German armed forces during World War II, including several generals and at least one field marshal, Erhard Milch"
I discovered the subject when reading about corsair ship atlantis. great story. One af german navy's heroes Bernhard Rogge brought the subject to my atention. Clearly identified jews in europe - have no idea how it is in france - are in general the ones who came back from Israel. And those are not directly involved in politics and are foreign citizens. They are not targets. The others are no longer possible targets in my opinion.
Thise who are now generally considered as having jewish origin in europe were rather material for leadership even for adolf rather then targets.
Large part of the leadership and upper class in eastern europe - I know better the case - have some jewish origin. It's not a secret at all. But they are not identified clearly as jews. I think the problem is not finding the antisemites but finding the jews, clearly identified as such.
Like milch and rogge there are plenty , they clearly have jewish origin, but what are they?
If adolf said "they are our guys", well this time will be the same, even in the worst case scenario.
"Even their former subjects - Georgians, etc. - do not dislike them."
Like previous subject it's a little bit more complicated I think. Russia type of empire was a little bit different from the western european style. with the exception of central asian republics which were in the middle ages up to the 50s - as a family/social structure until so late- the rest were part of the system.
And in central asia the rest of the union pumped enormous resources and locals were promoted a lot.
Not clear who were the subjects. Georgians clearly were not.
Even today when we have something called Russian federation , it's a sort of american identity of the citizens.
Just a few examples at the very top.
Interior minister - and in russia it's a very important position it's a tartar. Economy minister the same.
Minister for emmergency situations, Soigu, is tuvin from republic of tuva.
Former patriarch Alexey was born Ridiger - german. Actual one Kirill - born Gundyayev - is mordvinian.
Gazprom boss is german. As is Sberbank's boss.
Chief ideoleg in todays Russia , as they say on wiki -" Surkov is seen as the main architect of the current Russian political system, often described as "sovereign" or "managed" democracy. "- western activists in Russia see him everywhere, was born Aslambek Andarbekovich Dudaev. In native chechen language Dudi Andarbeki kant Aslambek. LOL.
So not clear who are the subjects. Oh just a little problem. Almost all are mixed.
Can Rashid Nurgaliev, the absolute master of the extremly powerfull russian interior ministery and Ajambek Dudaev, creator of the present political system be called subjects?
It's like Iran, complicate societies.
Does Jewishness work like the "one drop" rule? The same condition that makes Obama a black man even though all that his deadbeat black father contributed was some sperm. I ask this with some seriousness as a large proportion of Jews look more <a href= "http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GeixtYS-P3s&feature=related > autochthonous </a>than the locals.
Ivan
The north american one drop rule was an exception I think. A strange and rather unique one.
For the numerous europeans having some jewish origin it makes o difference I believe. I am not talking only about elite ones. The place is crawling with them. I am talking about grass level from personal experience. If we can generalize I don't really know, but if they are many around me then I suppose we can generalize a little. And if you are not part of the elite well it's no subject at all.
As an example. What is someone from an absolutely secular family having both father and mother with mixed origin? But no tradition whatsoever of any kind. So that you find out pretty late because absolutely nobody considers this as being something worth mentioned?
I said that many exist because i was told by them - and this in a small social group of probably close to a hundred. Having a rather unusual name and being very vocal and in general the intelectual type I found out rather surprised I was hmmm very visible. Many others existed but had more of an autochtonous look. Anyway I had no idea maybe because personal impact was absolute zero.
So as an answer. From a european perspective I think there is absolutely no trace of that absurd north american rule. And anyway it will be eliminated there also. By the normal human behaviour which involves mating.
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