Sunday, March 18, 2012

"Arab Spring" Famine


The CIA's website ranks Israel among the developed countries, with a higher per capita product than Spain and Italy and approaching Japan, Britain, France. The ranking has a few surprises, such the advance of Singapur and Hong Kong, and the considerable impoverishment of the the Arab countries such as Jordan, West Bank and Morocco, and specially those undergoing "Arab Springs" such as Syria and Lybia (GNP=0).

15 comments:

Anonymous said...

That data is from 2004.

Anonymous said...

Also, Italy's rankings are held down by the poor, backward southern part of the country. Israel is almost certainly nowhere near as well-to-do as Northern Italy.

Anonymous said...

OK, I take back the first comment about data being from 2004. The link indicates 2004, but the data is recent. The second point about Italy stands.

Anonymous said...

Israel also has richer and poorer sections and groups - not only Arabs but Yemenite Jews, Ethiopian "Jews" , etc. and the regions in which they live.

The accomplishment is all the more remarkable because not so long ago Israel was a 3rd worldish/ Socialist country, much much poorer than any W. European country. I remember that in the 1970s my uncle in Ra'anana waited years before he was eligible for a telephone line (phone co. was run on socialist lines). He had no washing machine in his house, not to mention no car, no air conditioning, etc. He was not particularly poor - probably had an average income for an Israeli at that time. My parents would send him jars of Nescafe' instant coffee which were like gold (socialists imposed high tariffs on imports to preserve hard currency). Beef was rarely consumed - there was all kinds of charcuterie made from turkey - turkey salami, turkey schnitzl, etc. before this stuff was known in the US (it was not sold for health reasons but because it was cheap to raise turkeys) not to mention the ubiquitous felafel instead of hamburgers. The merchandise in the shops was disconnected from world fashion and was poor quality - hard Israeli sandals, cheap synthetic sport shirts, etc. Probably at that time the Israeli standard of living was closer to Yugoslavia than Italy.



K

Anonymous said...

By the way, some of the figures are highly questionable - they put Cuba on par with Thailand and almost even with Costa Rica and Brazil. I would eat one of Castro's cigars if this were true. The CIA has always been gullible to Communist misinformation - I think it is in their interest to overstate the strength of the enemy.

K

J said...

Sure, the CIA has no obligation nor desire to publish objective information but what suits the current political leadership. The figures are in PPP that is buying power, not actual dollars.

Israel is nowhere Northern Italy, which must be rich as Switzerland. On the other hand, Argentina is half as rich as Israel, yet the people lives much confortably.

teo said...

"Israel is nowhere Northern Italy, which must be rich as Switzerland. On the other hand, Argentina is half as rich as Israel, yet the people lives much confortably."

You're on to something very interesting. I traveled a lot the last decade with my job. And noticed the same. Even PPP does not catch everything.
In a theoretically wealthy area the life style is not necesarily confortable.
If you deduce the vital costs : accomodation, shool/kindergarden/daycare, health/pension insurance, trasportation costs, food/drink you get hmmmm quite interesting results. Surprisingly normal people have very modest lives. Very very modest ones.

Germany I know quite well. Been there many times, including last week. And normal people with quite nice jobs live very modestly. Not because they are cheap or something. But because it's very hard to make ends meet.
Until a few years ago even having children ment instant poverty for a normal family. Now the great german leadership managed to somehow discover - I still can't imagine how they managed to understand something so very simple - that germans simply can't afford to reproduce. At least the ones living in cities.
Not very hard to understand for any person with half a brain or even a few live neurons.
But it took untill 2007 if I remember correctly for the german political structure to notice these. Of course by then the number of german young females was already so small that population collapse was all but certain.
How is the country wealthy if you can't afford to have 1-2 babies?
Afford as in not having enough money to pay rent/utilities/day care/transportation.

Sweden is even worse - they help you with kids that's OK and an example for all I'd say - but loves are extremely modest. They very much look like the old communist times I remember.
Can't afford to eat too much. Can't afford to drink - almost at all. Cant't afford to buy clothes too often. Extremly expensive. Can't afford almost anything except the strictly necessary after you cover taxes.
Never been to North Korea but if my experience is of any use just a some good meals and some cheap chinese clothes and their living conditions are close to Sweden.

The subject has been of great interest to me for the last few years.
I started to think that somehow the stats are extremely inaccurate. Just numbers on paper you can play with any way you want.

Never been to Israel but I suppose that it is quite similar to the cases I mentioned above.
PLS advice.
For example a young couple in Israel. Graduated and got jobs,married etc.
They buy an apartment on credit. One car.( Maybe two.) And have kids.
Do they have any money left after they make payment for credit, leasing, put food on the table and buy clothes for the kids?
( have no idea about daycare there so I live it for you to comment).
If not well stats have a problem. Somehow they do not describe our reality in which people live but something else.
Where is the wealth?

PS. Left out by intention the ability to change often the Iphone and plasma TV. I consider these similar to bling and quite irrelevant for the real living level.

teo said...

"Israel is nowhere Northern Italy, which must be rich as Switzerland. On the other hand, Argentina is half as rich as Israel, yet the people lives much confortably."

You're on to something very interesting. I traveled a lot the last decade with my job. And noticed the same. Even PPP does not catch everything.
In a theoretically wealthy area the life style is not necesarily confortable.
If you deduce the vital costs : accomodation, shool/kindergarden/daycare, health/pension insurance, trasportation costs, food/drink you get hmmmm quite interesting results. Surprisingly normal people have very modest lives. Very very modest ones.

Germany I know quite well. Been there many times, including last week. And normal people with quite nice jobs live very modestly. Not because they are cheap or something. But because it's very hard to make ends meet.
Until a few years ago even having children ment instant poverty for a normal family. Now the great german leadership managed to somehow discover - I still can't imagine how they managed to understand something so very simple - that germans simply can't afford to reproduce. At least the ones living in cities.
Not very hard to understand for any person with half a brain or even a few live neurons.
But it took untill 2007 if I remember correctly for the german political structure to notice these. Of course by then the number of german young females was already so small that population collapse was all but certain.
How is the country wealthy if you can't afford to have 1-2 babies?
Afford as in not having enough money to pay rent/utilities/day care/transportation.

Sweden is even worse - they help you with kids that's OK and an example for all I'd say - but loves are extremely modest. They very much look like the old communist times I remember.
Can't afford to eat too much. Can't afford to drink - almost at all. Cant't afford to buy clothes too often. Extremly expensive. Can't afford almost anything except the strictly necessary after you cover taxes.
Never been to North Korea but if my experience is of any use just a some good meals and some cheap chinese clothes and their living conditions are close to Sweden.

The subject has been of great interest to me for the last few years.
I started to think that somehow the stats are extremely inaccurate. Just numbers on paper you can play with any way you want.

Never been to Israel but I suppose that it is quite similar to the cases I mentioned above.
PLS advice.
For example a young couple in Israel. Graduated and got jobs,married etc.
They buy an apartment on credit. One car.( Maybe two.) And have kids.
Do they have any money left after they make payment for credit, leasing, put food on the table and buy clothes for the kids?
( have no idea about daycare there so I live it for you to comment).
If not well stats have a problem. Somehow they do not describe our reality in which people live but something else.
Where is the wealth?

PS. Left out by intention the ability to change often the Iphone and plasma TV. I consider these similar to bling and quite irrelevant for the real living level.

Anonymous said...

A long winded way of saying that the PPP stats don't capture everything. PPP by definition has to be based on a market basket of goods and the market basket differs by culture and income. Also they give "pretax" income so if you are paying 50+% of your income in taxes that is not reflected either. Also not captured are different cultural preferences for work vs leisure. The American lives in a bigger house but the German takes more vacations. Etc. All in all, it's impossible to make 1 to 1 comparisons but the stats give you some rough guidance.

K

teo said...

Very rough I might say.

I compared the cases I know best. Sweden and Germany.
On paper Sweden is even wealthier then Germany but it definitely does not look like that. Disposable incomes are smaller and prices higher.
Only difference is the support offered for children - now correcting also in Germany.

And anyway 40 000 dollars per capita at PPP in Sweden?????
The level of consumption is very low. Because they don't have the money to spend.
After all operational costs not much remains. Not much because prices are extremely high.
So a normal swede can consume very few units of food, drink, clothes,travel etc.

Just as an example , a very funny one.
The train ticket from Arlanda Airport to Stockholm is ... 50 euros - equivalent in SEK.
So GDP is hmmmmm high in this case?
The same train ticket from Frankfurt airport to the city - 2 ways - is 8 euros.
So by this well we understand that Germany is much poorer then Sweden?
Or that swedish stats are much more detached from any reality then the german one?

What guidance?
It gives me head aches trying to make sense out of this.

PS. Of course sometimes stats are completely fake due to political reasons.
So very absurdly false I can't imagine how someone could even take them seriously.
Like comparing China's GDP with US.
They build some tens of times more building then US. Financed through banks and bought after.
Buy double the number of cars. Consume few times more food/clothes'phones/TVs etc.

And yet somehow GDP is .....????? lower?????/
LOL

It's like I have a larger house then you. A bigger more expensive car. A newer plasma. More expensive clothes. Much more money in the bank.
And yet somehow you are .... wealthier ????/
Sounds schizophrenic to me.
Only an economist can come with such interesting creative theories.

Anonymous said...

Passenger trains are usually heavily subsidized by government and the fares do not reflect market prices but rather politics, which differ from place to place. The Greek railroad loses so much money that it would be cheaper for them to close it and buy every passenger a free taxi ride to his destination. One could conclude that the Greeks have great purchasing power by dint of their low train fares or else one could conclude that they are just free riders (literally).

Those who compile the PPP stats have some sort of methodology, albeit flawed. How do you propose to derive the Teo Index?

K

teo said...

I don't propose anything. Just noticed how flawed the system is.
An attempt was made by the communist governments. The stats counted material production. Pretty complicated because you also have to use monetary units and then you can fake the stats.

Right now I suspect they are faked due to political reasons. Problem is not methodology, but the interests of the leadership. They need results. And stats saying there weren't any good ones for the last decades are not good stats.

Stalin said it doesn't matter who votes, it matters who counts. In our case methodology is irrelevant, who applies it matters.

I suspect western Europe - I'd say US also but I don't visit so it's only theoretical, and energy use confirms it - didn't have real growth from the 70s. Real growth per capita.
If you have more economic activity and everyone is poorer then you are destroying value not creating it.
I have already seen this and it looks familiar. It's a matter of missalocation of capital. Socialist states grew and grew and grew until they collapsed. Accountancy was OK, just that reality was more and more unconected to it.
I see the same symptoms now.
Any system can and does go awry.
Human nature it seems.

J said...

PPP is an accepted method of comparing living standards. A haircut cost 20 dollars in Israel and 2 dollars in India, the same service and different price. A computer costs 500 dollars here and the same thing 1500 in Argentina. PPP makes comparison possible.

teo said...

"PPP makes comparison possible."

Yeap that is the idea. What I started to suspect is that financial or other types of organisations - WB, FMI, CIA etc , the ones making the calculus - play with the stats.

I thought for long about this because numbers didn't add. And my personal empiric analysis made me think I was on to something.

Never been there but I understood it makes Sweden look wealthy by comparison.
Japan is by consumption close to 3rd world level - except bling of course. And yet somehow stats say it's first world.
Where is the GDP? Japanese didn't see it that is what we know.
Mistery.

( You live in tiny tiny apartment. You don't afford to heat it in winter or to cool it in summer. Thick blankets are a must.
Your caloric intake is a little bit above the famine level - FAO says it not me. Just a few hundred calories above NK. Buy very few clothes , can't afford more. GO out very rarely because can't afford. True, own quite new car in order to help national industry consume some raw materials for something useless because ... don't afford to drive.
As before I excluded bling.
Where the frack is the illusive GDP?)

Comparison yes I agree. But to compare something similar. Japan with NK. If you compare Japan with Australia or US it makes no sense.
They have smaller or similar houses then north koreans. Heat them the same, rather not. More electriciy used in Japan.
Eat a little better and own more bling.
Obvioulsy PPP shows us japanese are much more prosperous then north koreans.
But are they more prosperous then argentines?
Hmmmmm here I think it becomes rather murky.

In essence it's like comparing apples with oranges I think. Comparing US with Russia or Brazil makes sense. Just as comparing NK with Japan.

Anonymous said...

The figures for Singapore are accurate only if they are the combined intake of a dual income family.