History insists in happening. Our closest neighbours are undergoing a silent demographic and political earthquake. From the 5 million people who escaped Iraq, about one million refugees are living in Jordan (half of them registered) unsettling the older Palestinian and Bedouin population. The King has changed Prime Ministers three times and some say he lacks the tribal charisma of his late father. In Syria, having learnt the lesson in Lybia, Europeans are staying out, allowing Assad Jr to reduce the rebellion. Egypt is in turmoil, barely governed.