The price of potassium fertilizer was 1000 dollars per ton three years ago, and now is 400. What happened, more competition? No, the industry is an oligopoly managed by POT of Saskatchewan. The barriers to potassium mining are impossibly high, no new mines opened in the last twenty years, and even the global mining conglomerate Vale announced that is suspending its Rio Colorado project indefinitely. This after investing 3 billion and hiring 4000 employees that it cannot fire (and keeps paying their salaries - indefinitely). Vale is trapped in Argentina. Other potassium rich areas, like the Erithrean Valley of Death, are war zones. Should agricultural commodities become scarcer, fertilizer will be in much demand. With the new capitalist coalition in Israel, KIL (the Israeli Potash Works) seems to me a good investment.
2 comments:
What went wrong in Rio Colorado?
Anon.
Nothing specific. The Province of Mendoza and the National Govenment are fighting for the right to blackmail Vale. Maybe Vale decided to negotiate the sum in a stronger position - that is, when there is no profits to expropiate. Possibly Vale executives spent time in Calabria and learned the negotiating style of the Ngandretta, or the Napolitan Camorra.
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