Sunday, February 10, 2013

Change

My mother used to warn me against drinking: "It blunts the mind and brutalizes". To keep one's mind sharp and alert was her lifelong goal, she succeeded for herself, not so for me. As I am getting older so is lessening my tolerance for alcohol. In the end, I'm near the point that I'll make kiddush with grape -פרי הגפן  lattu sensu.

Things are changing. German ruling classes have realized their failure to increase the national birth rate = no amount of money or birth package can seduce German girls to make babies. So they have decided to increase immigration and slowly become a mixed race nation like France and America. On the other side of the planet, Singapur (the first nation to talk openly about the issue) is also realizing that nothing works and its fertility rate is now 0.7 so they have decided to make up the difference with immigrants. Half of the population of Singapur are foreigners, making it one of the wealthiest countries in the world.

My instinct says that mixed-race factories cannot be efficient and mixed-race armies cannot win battles. Yet, reality shows that to be untrue. The future may look like that famous cantina scene in Star Wars.

58 comments:

Anonymous said...

Just look modern Italy.

Anonymous said...

Not long till there are more Ethnic Jews being born than ethnic Germans. The ultimate revenge. Ze Germans are dying.

Anonymous said...

The Roman Empire suffered a racial degradation like the USA is suffering today... Obama is the American Septimius Severus

Cremieux said...

I noticed that a lot italians look like Jews, hooked nose and all.

Cremieux said...

The French should have mixed themselves with the indochineses, not with africans.

J said...

Cremieux: There are many vietnamese in France, as well as Algerians and Senegalese. France started the whole thing 220 years ago. They invented the Goddess of Reason.

Anonymous said...

It's a race to the bottom. Which European nation can prove how "progressive" and "tolerant" they are by committing ethnic suicide the fastest. I'm nominating the English.

Cremieux said...

Le Pen is going to win the 2017 election, there is no way around it.

Marseille has become a third-world city and the ghettos in Paris, Toulouse and Lyon are out of control.

It's likely that will going to see a Srebenica like event in France.

Anonymous said...

So Le Pen wins and then what? It's not as if she's going to deport all the Mohammed Merah's back to the Maghreb. They're stuck with them. France made their bed and they'll have to find a way to live with it.

Anonymous said...

The real tragedy is London.

I can't imagine what the Queen is thinking.

Anonymous said...

Do you think that the GOP will be dead by 2016? America has changed so fast...

Cremieux said...

>3:36 PM

Mighty is right.

Anonymous said...

The US has been a mixed race country from day 1. Many of the Southern states were majority black from colonial times onward. A mixed race workforce is no problem. Mixed race leadership is. The danger is modern democracy with universal suffrage.


K

Anonymous said...

No more jim crow... All the big american cities are under non-WASP control.

Cremieux said...

>6:51 PM

The Dispossed Majority.

Cremieux said...

>6:51 PM

The Dispossed Majority.

Anonymous said...

I noticed that a lot italians look like Jews, hooked nose and all.

Italy has experienced Neolithic demic diffusion from the Middle East and immigration from Greece (Magna Graecia, Iconoclastic Controversy, fall of the Byzantine Empire), Greeks being another population heavily influenced by Neolithic demic diffusion. There was also immigration from North Africa and the Middle East during the Roman period, and parts of southern Italy were under periodic Arab control during the early Middle Ages.

A hooked nose does not independently define the Jewish look. Most people I meet tell me that I look very Jewish, but I definitely don't have a hooked nose.

Anonymous said...

How long did the German government experiment with monetary incentives to increase the birth rate? If the program only lasted for a few years, perhaps it was just a fake ploy to excuse the shift to a pro-immigration strategy later.

J said...

There is no scarcity of xenophobia in Europe. No one likes those Arab immigrants, and many hate them. But somebody has to man the factories and drive the autobuses and the trains to pay the pensions of tens of millions of childless Germans, French, Englishmen, White Americans.

It is a no choice situation.

I dont know what is the secret of the Japanese that manage without immigrants. Maybe that is the reason of their economic paralysis. But still they are very wealthy and they dont seem to suffer. Till now they could outsource their manufacturing to South Korea and China, but those tigers are now competing with them. I would like to know more about how Japan will solve its problem, especially now that it is in war.

Anonymous said...

The factories are increasingly automated, and so are the buses and trains. That is Japan's secret. There is no need to import so many immigrants. Even if immigration is allowed, there is no need to be non-selective about the immigrants' origins. It is not as if all immigrants have the same qualities. Why not offer guestworker positions to the Chinese and limit Arab immigration?

Anonymous said...

>Maybe that is the reason of their economic paralysis. But still they are very wealthy and they dont seem to suffer.

That's exactly what would happen in the US or any other developed country. We have enough productive capacity for only 30% of the population to work and support the other 70% just fine. From the perspective of those in their 30s, 40s, and 50s, retiring boomers means MONEY. Promotions, of course, as positions of power are vacated, but also more consumers, burning through savings, shoveling their money toward the working minority. In that sort of environment, it wouldn't be hard to raise taxes to make up the difference.

The only pain points will come from underfunded pensions, or their government-program equivalents. Then seniors will fail to get money they were expecting and relying on. There are various financial solutions to that, and immigration doesn't even help with the private pension problem.

You'd have to want immigration anyway to see it as a solution to underfunded pensions.

-R

Anonymous said...

The Japanese haven't found the magic solution. Automation only goes so far. As J says, you're screwed either way - you're screwed if you take immigrants and you're screwed if you don't. The Japanese have just picked the latter poison because of their extreme xenophobia.

K

Anonymous said...

It might be a less harmful poison, K. Only time will tell. R also points out immigration doesn't solve private pension problems. In theory, it could help with public tax-funded welfare programs except that the immigrants consume more in benefits than their low skills can produce. They also prefer to be paid in cash under the table or attempt to evade taxation by other means. Much of what they earn if funneled back home and never supports the local economy. And meanwhile, their presence itself lowers the value of labor. Sailer has posted a good satirical take on that last issue today.

Anonymous said...

Japan is on the right track. Immigrants add to welfare rolls. They do not solve demographic problems nor help the economy.

antonym said...

You're temporarily screwed if you don't allow mass immigration. You're permanently screwed if you do.

Anonymous said...

Sailer has posted a good satirical take on that last issue today.

You'll pardon me for not laughing. I thought that professional work was largely immune to outsourcing but apparently not. Apparently the 1% will not be satisfied until they are the only ones living a decent lifestyle. It's not enough for them to capture over 1/4 of all income. They want ALL of it and will do whatever is necessary to make it so.

K

Anonymous said...

Yes, people like Mankiw have no loyalty to Americans below the top 1%, even junior economists. It's a terribly serious issue, and I am not laughing about it as I'm sure it has greater implications for me than for you. Rather, I thought Sailer's satiric take was well-done. For once, he and we have the same antagonists

Anonymous said...

As I mentioned before, I recently experienced a situation where a large corporation I was dealing with (not my client but the other side)had outsourced their legal work to the Philippines, so this mentality has implications for me as well.

Marx posited that the proletariat would be pauperized because the reserve army of the employed at the factory gates would drive wage rates ever downward. For a long time his predictions were forestalled because the supply of labor relative to demand proved to be relatively low in western countries. But if the "factory gates" are globalized and the "factory" can just as well be a university or a professional office, then Marx's predictions are back on track. This still does not make his prescriptions correct. Curing a disease is much harder than making a diagnosis. But it seems as if we are on the wrong track and the situation is getting worse and not better.

K

Anonymous said...

Sorry to hear that this affects you as well. I am worried because I am much younger than you are, so I may have to put up with harmful policy for longer.

Anonymous said...

Chicago, Detroit, Philly... Many American cities have been lost... Just sad.

Cremieux said...

NYC is an interesting case, the most cosmopolitan city in the World but with a thriving hasidic population of jewish traditionalists.

This is the strength of the Jewry, living in a multicultural enviroment only make our Faith and culture stronger.

Anonymous said...

You're a wrong J.

Even in the 1970s most of the Muslims and black immigrants in Europe were uemployed and on welfare.

Anonymous said...

The hasidic enclaves aren't happily multicultural. They've carved out territory for themselves within the city, in some cases to field their own police and ambulance services. The Brooklyn-concentrated ultra-Orthodox have also posted billboards discouraging people from going into Manhattan, which they perceive to be a den of iniquity.

J said...

K

I dont think Phillipine lawyers represent the least competition for you. Just as it is impossible to outsource engineering work. You ignore the problems the other side had with their Phillipine "employees" and probably they will never commit the same error again.

Cremieux said...

>7:02 AM

That's what I'm saying. Even in competitive, cosmpolitan enviroment the Hasidim remained united and Strong. Caving a territory for themselves like you said.

Anonymous said...

The problem is that people are addicted to money more than they are to long-term survival.

Anon.

Anonymous said...

Anon.

If you have money, you can survive anywhere in this globalized world.

Anonymous said...

You ignore the problems the other side had with their Phillipine "employees"

The people at headquarters, 3 levels up, don't have to deal directly with the Filipinos. All they care about is that their billing rate is 1/2 or less of what they were paying American lawyers. There is no easy metric for the quality of services.

K

J said...

Allow me to disagree. In TAHAL we had many successive contract lawyers, legal translators, client relations people, and so. There were cases we lost millions because of some stupid clause or misunderstanding. Quality and reliability and confidence that one is working with the best available is discovered very fast and the people 3 levels up beg to have it at any price.

That is exactly what Steve Sailer and other idiots dont understand, the scarcity and worth of really talented and reliable people. They are those who protest at the salaries of exceptional people and artists.

Now, if things get really bad, you could always move to Nigeria :-) It is a very rich country and I read that KFC and MacDonald and other fast food restaurant chains are unable to operate because there is no local proudction of chickens and it is forbidden to import. Locals are unable to manage an industrial chicken operation.

Anonymous said...

There were cases we lost millions because of some stupid clause or misunderstanding.... the people 3 levels up beg to have it at any price.

Of course they do, later, after the millions are gone. My Jamaican carpenter always says "the cheapest is the dearest" but at the beginning you only see the low price tag - the downside come later, in retrospect. If you are managing for quarterly results, you do stupid things like that. By the time the problems show up years from now, those in the executive office will have long since collected your quarterly bonus and move elsewhere.

Keeping chickens is apparently now a fashionable hobby - I see catalogs from upscale retailers where they sell (expensive) backyard chicken coops.



K

J said...

In my experience - mostly in Latin America - international contracts are very complicated and risky. I remember the implications of tax paragraphs - and transfer of money - and local insurance and so issues. Its true that most problems are discovered when the job is done and is payment day. Even if problems are known before, they are not talked about in the hope that they will disappear....

J said...

I never heard of a Phillipine legal services export industry. I heard they are the largest exporters of caretakers and cleaning ladies.

Anonymous said...

I never heard of this before either. Unlike cleaning ladies, the Filipino lawyers get to stay home (at Filipino living costs). In the past I used to attend meetings in person quite often and we would courier papers across town, but nowadays, 99% of the time everything is done by phone conference and email, so theoretically your lawyer can be anywhere on earth. The 13 hr time difference poses a problem - the lawyers have to work late at night whenever they have a phone call. The biggest problem is of course quality - Filipino laws schools are not in the same league as American. I was not impressed with the Filipino lawyer I dealt with.

K

Anonymous said...

Are there Filipinos studying American law in Filipino law schools? I'm confused how they could even pretend to offer comparable services to an American lawyer.

We've been using a Filipino company for data entry, beginning with a pilot project 5 years ago. They were better in every way than the army of interns and low-paid Americans we used to use, and slowly more and more work got transfered from the in-house team to the outsourcers. It's all led by the same manager - he lost his domestic team, and now works exclusively with a group of Filipinos he's never met in person.

-R

J said...

There is an important Chinese community in the Phillipines, may be we are talking about them. The rest are Malays, not very hardworking nor very bright.

Interestingly, there is a small hardcore of Spanish Phillippinos, they speak Spanish and consider themselves Spaniards. They write interesting literature.

But the real danger they pose to
American professionals are the surgeons. Phillipino miracle surgeons are famous for their operations extracting large pieces of flesh and intestines and curing cancer and so.

Anonymous said...

"Curing" cancer is a misnomer. Even 10 or 20 years out, it can recur when someone becomes immunosuppressed (which happens to some degree just by aging), etc. As for the threat, sure, some elective cases could migrate there, but I doubt you're going to be rushing to start a 20-hour flight when your chest pains start, you've got peritonitis from an ischemic colon or diverticular rupture, or your jaw and ribs are broken in a traumatic accident.

Anonymous said...

The lawyer I was dealing with had a Hispanic surname but J is right that most of the business class is Chinese.

Filipino law schools teach in English but Filipino law is based on the Spanish civil code and is not the same as American law.

As for "curing" cancer, J was referring to famous Filpino charlatans who perform "surgery" without cutting you open by using sleight of hand magic tricks.

K

J said...

Exactly. "Surgery" was done tricking the victim, who saw chunks if meat extracted, to believe that this disease had gone. Of course is charlatanism.

Anonymous said...

Have either of you been to the Philippines to observe this in action? If not, when did this aspect of Filipino culture become well-known?

B said...

On behalf of Dr. Orbito, renowned psychic surgeon, I demand that you stop this slander and cease these baseless accusations. The charges against Dr. Orbito were dropped, and he continues healing the masses of cancer, anorexia and latent homosexuality.

B said...

Nobody needs to fly to the Philippines to get their appendectomy. 3rd world doctors are a huge fraction of America's health care providers, and this fraction will increase as the nationalized health care system increases workloads and lowers pay.

BTW, the other week I was visiting friends in Bet Shemesh, who were watching Gray's Anatomy (a sort of medical soap opera.) The entire episode revolved around caring, romantically involved doctors realizing (with the help of a wise Latina) that sometimes it's more humane to let an old, suffering patient die, and helping the patient's son to realize this too, until the episode culminated in a sort of masturbatory medical mercy killing, tender swelling strings in the background and all. As could be expected, once the government took possession of the health care system, cost cutting measures directed against its weakest wards had to be implemented, and the official propaganda organs are educating the masses in support of this initiative.

Anonymous said...

The show is a little ahead of schedule, B. But I'm sure Ari Emanuel appreciates the writers' efforts to get the populace to accept his ideas. The Emanuels are a pretty loathsome bunch of Jewish lefists, aren't they? Coarse, crude and Orthodox, too. People like them make me ashamed to be a MOT.

Anonymous said...

Eh, meant Ezekiel Emanuel. He is Rahm's "bioethicist" brother. Ari is the inspiration for the show "Entourage."

J said...

B,

Alex Orbito, the famous Phillippine healer, is not a medical doctor and he doesnt pretend to be one. He is a Reverend.

But I didnt mean Orbito. He didnt invent psychic fifth dimension surgery. As you are sure to know, this is a Phillippine scientific procedure involving the creation of an incision using only the bare hands, the removal of pathological matter, and the spontaneous healing of the incision. In my humble opinion, the outsourcing of American surgery to the Phillipines is unavoidable, the difference in prices is astronomical (American = 200000 $, Phillippine = 200$).

B said...

Rahm is not Orthodox, as far as I can tell.

Anonymous said...

Have either of you been to the Philippines?

No, but I have this box that sits on my desk called a "computer". It is connected to something called "the internet" which allows me to learn of happenings in far-off places that I have never seen, like the Philippines and Kansas. Sometimes there are even moving pictures:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDh_38iDg0o


K

Anonymous said...

Rahm is not Orthodox, as far as I can tell.

He belongs to a Modern Orthodox synagogue in Chicago, Anshe Sholom B'nai Israel Congregation, and his wife underwent an Orthdox conversion. He may not be fully observant, but clearly he wants at least some of us to see him as Orthodox.

B said...

Any Jew can join any synagogue. Rahm flaunts the most basic mitzvot.